The study analyzes neural network predictions of knot invariants and finds that braid representations work best.
problem Understanding and predicting knot invariants using neural networks.
method Investigated different knot representations and invariants, proposed a cosine similarity score.
result Braid representations are best for predicting knot invariants, and some invariants are easier to learn than others.
Bayesian Invariant Prediction models stable features from multi-environment data.
problem Analyzing stable features across multiple environments for better prediction and understanding.
method Developed Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP) model that encodes invariant feature indices as latent variables and infers them via posterior inference.
result BIP and its variational approximation (VI-BIP) outperform existing methods in accuracy and scalability for invariant prediction.
Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction refines ICP for better scalability and prior integration.
problem Improving computational scalability and invariance testing for causal inference.
method Bayesian Hierarchical structure to test invariance under heterogeneous data.
result Demonstrated improved scalability and potential as an alternative to ICP.
This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.
problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.
We study the invariance characteristics of pre-trained predictive models by empirically learning transformations on the input that leave the prediction function approximately unchanged. To learn invariant transformations, we minimize the Wasserstein distance between the predictive distribution conditioned on the data i…
Harmonization schemes limit accuracy due to domain information.
problem Harmonization schemes lead to inaccurate predictions due to domain information.
method Analysis of mutual information and real label value informativeness.
result Accuracy is limited by the domain with least information.
Paper shows hard computational limits for invariant causal prediction.
problem Hard computational limits for invariant causal prediction.
method Distributionally robust estimator with ellipse-shaped uncertain set.
result Estimation error rate can be arbitrarily slow for computationally efficient algorithms.
ATLAS separates invariant and transferable latent factors across diverse environments.
problem Transfer learning and robust prediction in heterogeneous environments.
method ATLAS leverages invariance principle to disentangle latent factors and uses auxiliary labels for robust prediction.
result Near-oracle performance and robust transferable prediction in new environments.
Proposes a method to predict responses from covariates over time.
problem Predicting responses from covariates with changing conditional distributions over time.
method Invariant Subspace Decomposition (ISD) framework that splits the conditional distribution into time-invariant and time-dependent components.
result The decomposition can be used for zero-shot and time-adaptation prediction tasks.
In this paper we use artificial neural networks to predict and help compute the values of certain knot invariants. In particular, we show that neural networks are able to predict when a knot is quasipositive with a high degree of accuracy. Given a knot with unknown quasipositivity we use these predictions to identify b…
Improves full conformal prediction for stochastic non-conformity measures.
problem Inability of existing conditions to guarantee full conformal prediction validity under stochastic settings.
method Introduces a new sufficient condition: Conditional Independence & Permutation Invariance in Distribution.
result Corrects the insufficient condition and provides a new sufficient condition for full conformal prediction validity.
SymmPI predicts unobserved values under group symmetries, improving over existing methods.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in predictions under group symmetries.
method Distributional equivariant transformations to preserve symmetries.
result SymmPI provides valid coverage and performs favorably in simulations and empirical data.
Geometric deep learning predicts knot invariants.
problem Predicting knot invariants from knot data.
method Constructing a functor from knots to graphs and using graph neural networks.
result High generalization capabilities demonstrated.
Regularising for invariance to data augmentation improves machine learning models.
problem Improving generalization in machine learning models through data augmentation.
method Explicit regularisation to encourage invariance at the level of individual model predictions.
result Explicit regularisation improves generalization and equalizes performance differences between objectives.
MIP framework improves urban flow prediction by adapting to distribution shifts.
problem Distribution shifts in urban flow data make prediction models unreliable.
method Memory-enhanced Invariant Prompt learning with learnable memory bank.
result MIP ensures robust predictions by focusing on invariant features.
LaCIM avoids spurious correlation by modeling latent causal factors.
problem Avoiding spurious correlation in supervised learning.
method Introducing latent variables for causal prediction and optimizing over latent space.
result Improved interpretability, robustness, and prediction power on OOD scenarios.
Deep neural networks predict knot invariants across dimensions with high accuracy.
problem Predicting knot invariants in different dimensions using machine learning.
method Two-layer feed-forward neural networks trained on various knot invariants.
result Neural networks achieve high accuracy in predicting knot invariants like s and g. Paper introduces a method to predict molecule properties from diverse data sources.
problem Limited ability to accommodate scarce or fragmented training data.
method Adaptive Invariance using invariant risk minimization to generalize beyond heterogeneous data.
result Predictor outperforms state-of-the-art transfer learning methods by significant margin.
This paper develops methods for obtaining distribution-free prediction regions for invariant representations.
problem Distributional shifts in machine learning models.
method Invariant risk minimization and weighted conformity scores.
result Proves the effectiveness of adaptive conformal intervals for uncertainty estimation.
Machine learning predicts arithmetic curve invariants with high accuracy.
problem Classifying arithmetic curves based on their invariants.
method Training machine learning algorithms on datasets of elliptic and genus 2 curves.
result High accuracy in classifying curves, including rank, torsion, and integral points.
Estimator improves prediction with missing data in multi-environment settings.
problem Handling missing data in multi-environment settings for robust prediction.
method Derive an estimator from invariance objective under missing outcomes.
result The estimator achieves lower prediction error despite using a biased imputation model.
New algorithm improves model generalization in structured biomedical domains.
problem Improving model generalization in structured biomedical domains.
method Proposes a new regret minimization (RGM) algorithm and its structured extension for better performance in diverse environments.
result Significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art baselines on molecular property prediction, protein homology, and stability prediction.
Generalized algorithm for translation and scale-invariant prediction.
problem Sequential prediction with expert advice, focusing on translation and scale invariance.
method Designing a generalized online algorithm using the universal prediction perspective to compete against a generic class of expert selection strategies.
result No preliminary knowledge of loss sequences is required; performance bounds are stable under arbitrary scalings and translations.
This paper explores tradeoffs between invariance and sensitivity in adversarial examples.
problem Understanding the limitations of existing adversarial defenses.
method Study of invariance-based adversarial examples and their impact on model accuracy.
result Adversarial defenses against sensitivity-based attacks can harm invariance-based attacks, necessitating new approaches.
Paper tackles distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
problem Distribution shifts in prediction models with unobserved confounding.
method Linear structural causal model, invariant covariate representations, data-driven representation learning method.
result Optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and a prediction model confined to that subspace, achieving nearly ideal gap between target and source risk.
Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines avoid spurious associations.
problem Learning algorithms for rule-based models are vulnerable to spurious associations.
method Building on invariant causal prediction, propose Invariant Causal Set Covering Machines for conjunctions/disjunctions of binary-valued rules.
result The method can identify causal parents of a variable of interest in polynomial time.
For each integer N≥2, Mariño and Moore defined generalized Donaldson invariants by the methods of quantum field theory, and made predictions about the values of these invariants. Subsequently, Kronheimer gave a rigorous definition of generalized Donaldson invariants using the moduli spaces of anti-self-dual conne…
We have developed a novel prediction method based on string invariants. The method does not require learning but a small set of parameters must be set to achieve optimal performance. We have implemented an evolutionary algorithm for the parametric optimization. We have tested the performance of the method on artificial…
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The invariant has been tested on different markets and different asset classes. In all cas…
Intelligence emerges from stabilizing invariant cycles in memory.
problem Understanding the nature of intelligence and its emergence.
method Structural-dynamical account rooted in a topological closure law: \(\partial^2=0\).
result Memory-amortized inference (MAI) mechanism that implements SbS \(
ightarrow\) CCUP.
In this paper we apply a new approach of the string theory to the real financial market. It is direct extension and application of the work [1] into prediction of prices. The models are constructed with an idea of prediction models based on the string invariants (PMBSI). The performance of PMBSI is compared to support …
Game theory approach to predicting and responding to interventions based on causal relationships.
problem Optimizing predictions and interventions in response to observational data.
method Prediction-intervention game framework, focusing on invariant subsets of covariates.
result Stable-blanket predictors are optimal for certain follower objectives and under specific conditions.
Data representations that contain all the information about target variables but are invariant to nuisance factors benefit supervised learning algorithms by preventing them from learning associations between these factors and the targets, thus reducing overfitting. We present a novel unsupervised invariance induction f…
GALA framework learns invariant graph representations via environment augmentation with minimal assumptions.
problem Learning invariant graph representations from different environments without additional assumptions.
method Developed GALA framework with minimal assumptions of variation sufficiency and consistency. Uses an assistant model to differentiate graph environment changes.
result Extracting maximally invariant subgraphs to proxy predictions identifies underlying invariant subgraphs for successful out-of-distribution generalization.
Electronic records contain sequences of events, some of which take place all at once in a single visit, and others that are dispersed over multiple visits, each with a different timestamp. We postulate that fine temporal detail, e.g., whether a series of blood tests are completed at once or in rapid succession should n…
On a probability space (Ω,A,Q) we consider two filtrations F⊂G and a G stopping time θ such that the G predictable processes coincide with F predictable processes on (0,θ]. In this setup it is well-known that, for any F semi…
We propose a way of computing 4-manifold invariants, old and new, as chiral correlation functions in half-twisted 2d N=(0,2) theories that arise from compactification of fivebranes. Such formulation gives a new interpretation of some known statements about Seiberg-Witten invariants, such as the basic class …
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.
Thermalizer stabilizes autoregressive models for long-term predictions in chaotic systems.
problem Long-term predictions in chaotic spatiotemporal systems are unreliable due to trajectory divergence.
method Diffusion models are used to implicitly estimate the score of an invariant measure, which stabilizes autoregressive emulators by applying denoising during inference.
result Thermalization extends the time horizon of stable predictions by an order of magnitude in chaotic systems.
We present a machine learning algorithm for the prediction of molecule properties inspired by ideas from density functional theory. Using Gaussian-type orbital functions, we create surrogate electronic densities of the molecule from which we compute invariant "solid harmonic scattering coefficients" that account for di…
Proposes a measure to predict generalization in non-matching environments.
problem Characterizing and comparing generalization of machine learning models in non-matching environments.
method Neighborhood invariance measure, calculating invariance as the largest fraction of transformed points classified into the same class.
result Strong and robust correlation between neighborhood invariance and actual out-of-domain generalization.
We present a unified invariance framework for supervised neural networks that can induce independence to nuisance factors of data without using any nuisance annotations, but can additionally use labeled information about biasing factors to force their removal from the latent embedding for making fair predictions. Invar…
Machine understanding of complex images is a key goal of artificial intelligence. One challenge underlying this task is that visual scenes contain multiple inter-related objects, and that global context plays an important role in interpreting the scene. A natural modeling framework for capturing such effects is structu…
Generalized Donaldson invariants of 4-manifolds are defined, using moduli spaces of anti-self-dual connections with structure group SU(N) or PSU(N). Some values of the invariants are calculated for the case that the 4-manifold arises by the knot-complement construction of Fintushel and Stern. The results are consistent…
Boosted Control Functions improve prediction under distributional shifts.
problem Prediction under distributional shifts in the presence of hidden confounding.
method Boosted Control Function (BCF) and ControlTwicing algorithm.
result BCF allows for distribution generalization and invariance under nonlinear, non-identifiable structural functions.
Data augmented bootstrap unifies various confidence interval construction methods.
problem Constructing confidence intervals from data transformations.
method Data augmented bootstrap (DAB) framework.
result Establishes theoretical coverage results for DAB methods.
We find the shape of the Donaldson invariants of a 4-manifold with b_1=0 and b^+>1, which may be not of simple type. The invariants appear as the q^0 coefficient of a expression given in terms of modular forms (as was predicted by Moore and Witten). We re-express the formula using complete elliptic integrals to prove a…
Proposes a novel network for CTR prediction by learning modality-specific and modality-invariant representations.
problem Learning good representation of items from multimodal features in E-commerce is challenging due to redundant information across modalities.
method Introduces a Multimodal Adversarial Representation Network (MARN) that calculates modality-specific weights and learns modality-invariant representations.
result Consistently achieves remarkable improvements over state-of-the-art methods in CTR prediction.