Proposes a model combining difference-attention and error-correction LSTMs for improved time series prediction.
problem Improving accuracy in time series prediction.
method Combines difference-attention LSTM and error-correction LSTM in a cascade approach.
result Improves prediction accuracy in time series.
Market forecasts converge to true values if some agents are correct.
problem Convergence of market forecasts in dynamic prediction markets.
method Dynamic model of prediction market with agents making forecasts.
result Aggregated market forecasts converge to conditional expectations.
Anytime-valid confirmation of label-shift corrections
problem Small-batch scientific deployments with scarce labeled outcomes
method Conditional e-value and martingale-based rule
result Nonnegative martingale and anytime-valid confirmation rule
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
New method corrects seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions with probabilistic models.
problem Systematic biases and errors in climate model forecasts of Arctic sea ice.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder model to map observation distribution given biased model predictions.
result Probabilistic adjusted forecasts are better calibrated and have smaller errors.
Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.
problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.
The paper combines Bitcoin price models with expert corrections for better predictions.
problem Improving Bitcoin price predictions using statistical and expert insights.
method Linear regression models combined with expert corrections, utilizing Bayesian approach for fat-tailed distributions.
result Better price prediction results compared to using either model or expert opinion alone.
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
problem Performative predictions undermine standard forecasting methods.
method Condition forecasts on covariates to make them forecast-invariant.
result Proper scoring rules fail under conditioning, but two solutions are identified.
Local surrogate model improves time series forecasts and provides interpretable explanations.
problem Improving time series forecasting accuracy while maintaining interpretability.
method A local surrogate model is used to correct the base model's predictions, making the corrections interpretable by re-fitting the base model to the error-predicted data.
result The method can discover and explain underlying patterns in the data, improving both accuracy and interpretability.
CONFINE enhances neural networks' interpretability without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep neural networks, especially in healthcare.
method CONFINE uses conformal prediction to generate prediction sets with robust uncertainty estimates.
result CONFINE achieves correct efficiency up to 3.3% higher than original accuracy.
BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.
problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.
In Stochastic blockmodels, which are among the most prominent statistical models for cluster analysis of complex networks, clusters are defined as groups of nodes with statistically similar link probabilities within and between groups. A recent extension by Karrer and Newman incorporates a node degree correction to mod…
Cancer analysis and prediction is the utmost important research field for well-being of humankind. The Cancer data are analyzed and predicted using machine learning algorithms. Most of the researcher claims the accuracy of the predicted results within 99%. However, we show that machine learning algorithms can easily pr…
System predicts ice formation to improve road safety.
problem Improving road safety through accurate ice formation prediction.
method Combining physical models and machine learning for data correction.
result Machine learning effectively corrects incorrect data in forecasts.
Survey of algorithms to correct past mistakes in prediction.
problem Improving prediction accuracy by correcting past errors.
method Defensive Forecasting as a sequential game theory approach to minimize prediction metrics.
result Simple, near-optimal algorithms for various prediction tasks.
New method improves model calibration by adjusting confidence based on prediction correctness.
problem Improving model confidence alignment with true class probabilities.
method Post-hoc calibration objective using transformed samples for training.
result Competitive calibration performance on in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets.
New methods reduce bias in machine learning predictions for causal inference without extra data.
problem Machine learning predictions from satellite data shrink toward the mean, leading to biased causal estimates.
method Two post-hoc correction methods: Linear Calibration Correction (LCC) and Tweedie's approach, reduce shrinkage-induced bias.
result Tweedie's method yields nearly unbiased treatment-effect estimates, enabling multiple trials with a single map.
State of the art Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can now achieve above human level accuracy on image classification tasks. However their outstanding performances come along with a complex inference mechanism making them arduously interpretable models. In order to understand the underlying prediction rules of DNNs, Dhamdhere…
Random forest models systematically bias predictions; a numerical transform corrects this.
problem Systematic bias in random forest regression predictions.
method Defined a numerical transformation using training data to correct bias.
result Improved predictions across real-world and synthetic datasets.
STAS selects optimal spatio-temporal scales for bias correction in precipitation forecasts.
problem Limited prior data and fixed ST scale in existing BCoPs lead to biases in numerical weather predictions.
method End-to-end deep-learning BCoP model STAS with SFM/TFM to automatically adjust spatial and temporal scales.
result STAS outperforms 8 published BCoP methods on threat scores (TS).
Non-intrusive algorithm corrects corrupted data in classification models.
problem Classification problems with corrupted training data.
method Post-processes a trained classification model with a correction procedure.
result Corrected models deliver correct classification results even with corrupted data.
Midicoth compresses online probability estimates by correcting prior smoothing biases.
problem Compression inefficiency due to prior smoothing in adaptive models.
method Micro-diffusion denoising applied in a bitwise tree hierarchy.
result Significant compression improvement with reliable calibration.
PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.
problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.
Random Forests provide interpretable prediction intervals with theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimates in machine learning point predictions.
method Out-of-Bag procedure for generating parametric and non-parametric prediction intervals.
result Proposed prediction intervals deliver correct coverage rates and narrow lengths.
We present a new algorithm to generate minimal, stable, and symbolic corrections to an input that will cause a neural network with ReLU activations to change its output. We argue that such a correction is a useful way to provide feedback to a user when the network's output is different from a desired output. Our algori…
SIP corrects model bias in Bayesian ML.
problem Model selection biases predictions in Bayesian ML.
method Sparse Implicit Processes (SIP) for flexible, trainable predictions.
result SIP provides better predictive distributions than initial models.
Entropy corrections improve GBM's predictive accuracy for non-log-normal distributions.
problem Log-normal distribution limitations in GBM predictions.
method Entropy corrections to geometric Brownian motion (GBM).
result Improved predictive accuracy for non-log-normal distributions.
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and conventional meteorological models, the numerical precipitation predictions are o…
We present a predictor-corrector framework, called PicCoLO, that can transform a first-order model-free reinforcement or imitation learning algorithm into a new hybrid method that leverages predictive models to accelerate policy learning. The new "PicCoLOed" algorithm optimizes a policy by recursively repeating two ste…
New method preserves GCM spatial dependencies for better climate projections.
problem Systemic biases in GCM output and loss of spatial/temporal dependencies.
method SPECD approach using Vecchia approximation and semi-parametric quantile regression.
result SPECD preserves key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and temperature.
A new approach reduces the size of prediction sets in CP, making it more efficient.
problem Large and costly prediction sets in standard CP.
method Expand correctness criterion to include inferred admissible answers, and use prediction cascades to prune implausible labels.
result Empirically effective in natural language processing and drug discovery.
Sequence probability predicts correctness in LLMs, but not for repeated prompts
problem Predicting correctness in large language models
method Quantifying sequence probability and correctness across different levels
result Higher sequence probability often predicts correctness across prompt-answer pairs
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
Boosted decision trees typically yield good accuracy, precision, and ROC area. However, because the outputs from boosting are not well calibrated posterior probabilities, boosting yields poor squared error and cross-entropy. We empirically demonstrate why AdaBoost predicts distorted probabilities and examine three cali…
A new estimator corrects bias in high-dimensional predictive regressions.
problem Bias in high-dimensional predictive regressions.
method IVX-desparsified LASSO (XDlasso) estimator.
result Corrects both shrinkage and Stambaugh bias.
Estimates reliability of nuclear fuel using advanced modeling techniques.
problem Determining the reliability of TRISO-coated particle fuel, which has small failure probabilities and expensive computational models.
method Coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation.
result Multifidelity modeling strategies consistently reduce the number of high-fidelity model calls.
A method compares AI corrections to a base model for explaining predictions.
problem Creating explanations for AI predictions.
method Introduces a surrogate model to correct a simpler base model and provides criteria for accuracy and fidelity.
result Induces neighborhoods of instances with ideal accuracy and fidelity.
Deep learning improves low-fidelity dynamical models with scarce high-fidelity data.
problem Improving low-fidelity models with limited high-fidelity data.
method Transfer learning using a deep neural network to correct a low-fidelity model.
result An improved DNN model with high accuracy to underlying dynamics.
ECNNs improve stock market predictions by correcting errors from previous steps.
problem Missing input variables in economic forecasting.
method Error Correction Neural Networks (ECNNs) that correct errors from previous steps.
result ECNNs outperform simple RNNs and other hybrid models.
Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to incorrect posterior predictive distributions. We present a novel approach that corr…
We propose a novel neural sequence prediction method based on \textit{error-correcting output codes} that avoids exact softmax normalization and allows for a tradeoff between speed and performance. Instead of minimizing measures between the predicted probability distribution and true distribution, we use error-correcti…
The paper corrects bias in synthetic data for imbalanced learning.
problem Challenges in balancing false positive and negative rates in imbalanced data.
method Proposes a bias correction procedure to generate synthetic data for minority groups.
result Enhances prediction accuracy while avoiding overfitting.
This paper examines the use of a residual bootstrap for bias correction in machine learning regression methods. Accounting for bias is an important obstacle in recent efforts to develop statistical inference for machine learning methods. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed bootstrap bias correction can lead to…
In critical care, intensivists are required to continuously monitor high dimensional vital signs and lab measurements to detect and diagnose acute patient conditions. This has always been a challenging task. In this study, we propose a novel self-correcting deep learning prediction approach to address this challenge. W…
New methods correct spectral distortions using known analyte concentrations.
problem Distorted spectral shapes from absorbing and scattering contributions.
method Modified penalized baseline correction methods that incorporate known analyte concentrations.
result Improved prediction performance on near infra-red data sets.
Bayesian method corrects bias in imbalanced datasets.
problem Prevalence bias in machine learning datasets.
method Bayesian risk minimization framework, bias-corrected loss function.
result Corrected loss function improves model performance.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
E-scores assess LLM outputs for correctness, addressing p-hacking issues.
problem Limited principled mechanisms to assess generative model correctness.
method Use e-values to complement LLM outputs with e-scores, providing flexibility in tolerance levels.
result Achieves guarantees of correctness assessment and upper bounds size distortion.