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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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133267400533 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for predictive capacity

Introduces Rashomon Capacity to measure predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classifiers.

problem Predictive multiplicity in classification models leading to unjustified decisions.
method Introduces Rashomon Capacity, a metric for probabilistic classifiers, and provides a rigorous derivation.
result Rashomon Capacity captures nuanced score variations and provides strategies for disclosing conflicting models.

Improves online learning algorithms for functional models with capacity assumptions.

problem Convergence rates of online stochastic gradient descent algorithms for functional linear models.
method Characterizations of slope function regularity, kernel space capacity, and sampling process covariance operator.
result Capacity assumptions can alleviate saturation of convergence rates as function regularity increases.

High-capacity neural network ensembles often benefit more from high-capacity models than from increased diversity.

problem The performance of high-capacity neural network ensembles is often harmed by interventions that promote predictive diversity.
method A large-scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, examining various interventions and architectures.
result Discouraging predictive diversity can be benign in large-network ensembles, and higher-capacity models often yield better performance than diverse architectures.

New complete panel dataset for LMICs helps analyze innovation and development.

problem Lack of complete data for empirical analyses in LMICs.
method Predictive Mean Matching multiple imputation technique.
result Created a large dataset of 47 variables for 82 LMICs from 2005-2019.

Study optimizes pricing under uncertainty and capacity constraints.

problem Optimizing pricing decisions under demand uncertainty and capacity constraints.
method Analyzes linear demand, stochastic noise, and finite capacity; uses certified demand forecasts and control variates.
result Certified demand forecasts reduce regret from O(T)O(\sqrt{T}) to O(logT)O(\log T) under certain conditions.

Study derives error decay rates for kernel classification under source and capacity conditions.

problem Understanding prediction error decay rates for real data sets.
method Derived decay rates for misclassification error under Gaussian design for SVM and ridge classification.
result Rates accurately describe learning curves for data sets satisfying source and capacity conditions.

Study capacity constraints in continual learning with a simple model.

problem Understanding optimal resource allocation for agents with limited memory and compute resources.
method Analyzes a capacity-constrained linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) sequential prediction problem and demonstrates optimal capacity allocation strategies.
result Derives a solution to the capacity-constrained LQG sequential prediction problem and shows how to optimally allocate capacity across sub-problems in the steady state.

The brain optimizes memory by forgetting what's predictable, improving generalization.

problem Memory consolidation struggles with representational drift, semanticisation, and offline replay.
method Proposes predictive forgetting as a mechanism to optimize generalization by reducing complexity.
result Predictive forgetting improves information-theoretic generalization bounds on stored representations.

Study binary perceptrons' capacity using random duality theory.

problem Characterize the capacity of binary perceptrons with general thresholds.
method Utilized fully lifted random duality theory (fl RDT) to characterize the capacity.
result Characterizations match replica symmetry breaking predictions and uncover the capacity for zero-threshold scenario.

Convolutional neural networks predict the analytic rank of elliptic curves accurately.

problem Predicting the analytic rank of elliptic curves over Q.
method Applied one-dimensional convolutional neural networks to Frobenius traces.
result High accuracy predictions for analytic rank across various conductors.

It has been known for a long time that the classical spherical perceptrons can be used as storage memories. Seminal work of Gardner, \cite{Gar88}, started an analytical study of perceptrons storage abilities. Many of the Gardner's predictions obtained through statistical mechanics tools have been rigorously justified. …

2013-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Managing data storage growth is of crucial importance to businesses. Poor practices can lead to large data and financial losses. Access to storage information along with timely action, or capacity forecasting, are essential to avoid these losses. In addition, ensuring high accuracy of capacity forecast estimates along …

2018-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

The study calculates the injectivity capacity of ReLU networks using a novel mathematical approach.

problem Determining the injectivity capacity of ReLU networks layers.
method Employing fully lifted random duality theory (fl RDT) to handle the 0\ell_0 spherical perceptron and implicitly the ReLU layers injectivity.
result The lifting mechanism converges remarkably fast with relative corrections not exceeding 0.1%.

In this paper, the echo state network (ESN) memory capacity, which represents the amount of input data an ESN can store, is analyzed for a new type of deep ESNs. In particular, two deep ESN architectures are studied. First, a parallel deep ESN is proposed in which multiple reservoirs are connected in parallel allowing …

2019-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

ChatGPT predicts stock market reactions from news headlines without financial training.

problem Predicting stock price movements using non-financial data.
method Used post-knowledge-cutoff headlines to train ChatGPT-4, which forecasts stock market reactions.
result ChatGPT-4 can predict stock market reactions with high accuracy, especially for small stocks and negative news.

Paper develops an online learning algorithm for functional data models.

problem Recovering slope functions or predictors in functional data models.
method Online regularized learning algorithm in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces with polynomially decaying step-size.
result Established fast convergence rates for estimation error without capacity assumption.

The paper tackles imbalanced classification under operational constraints, proposing a framework to maximize sensitivity.

problem Detecting minority class observations under severe class imbalance and operational constraints.
method Formal classification framework under capacity constraints, maximizing sensitivity while respecting a user-defined label limit.
result The optimal classifier under capacity constraints is equivalent to the Bayes classifier with reweighted prior probabilities.

New analysis shows capacity of treelike neural networks with various activations.

problem Analyzing the capacity of treelike neural networks with diverse activations.
method Utilized Random Duality Theory and its partially lifted version to handle various activations.
result The capacity of treelike neural networks decreases for large network width but converges to a constant value.

New study shows how model complexity affects test risk, challenging classical theory.

problem Understanding how test risk scales with model complexity for large over-parametrized deep networks.
method Developed norm-based capacity measures for random features based estimators, providing precise characterization of estimator's norm concentration and test error.
result Predicted learning curve shows a phase transition from under- to over-parameterization, confirming classical U-shaped behavior with appropriate capacity measures.

Paper tackles inventory management with deep learning, improving performance and adherence to constraints.

problem Managing inventory with limited resources and constraints.
method Proposes a novel method to sample from a distribution of possible constraint paths, extends exo-IDP formulation, introduces neural coordinator, and uses modified DirectBackprop algorithm.
result Deep reinforcement learning policies with a neural coordinator outperform classic baselines in terms of performance and adherence to constraints.

Study on Privileged ERM showing limitations and providing capacity analysis.

problem Improving classification accuracy with privileged information.
method Theoretical analysis of Privileged ERM using VC dimension and generalization bounds.
result Worst-case guarantees for Privileged ERM cannot improve over standard ERM unless privileged information capacity is similar or smaller.

New bounds on neural network capacity for treelike sign perceptrons using RDT.

problem Determining the capacity of treelike sign perceptrons neural networks.
method Random Duality Theory (RDT) to establish upper bounds.
result Mathematically rigorous bounds on network capacity for any number of neurons.

Accurately predicting the future capacity and remaining useful life of batteries is necessary to ensure reliable system operation and to minimise maintenance costs. The complex nature of battery degradation has meant that mechanistic modelling of capacity fade has thus far remained intractable; however, with the advent…

2017-03-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Survey of large language models in financial prediction and trading.

problem Improving predictability and robustness of financial predictions and trading decisions.
method Task-centered taxonomy, review of empirical evidence, design patterns, benchmarks, and challenges analysis.
result Improved predictability and robustness of financial predictions and trading decisions through large language models.

Semi-supervised node classification in attributed graphs, i.e., graphs with node features, involves learning to classify unlabeled nodes given a partially labeled graph. Label predictions are made by jointly modeling the node and its' neighborhood features. State-of-the-art models for node classification on such attrib…

2018-05-31abs ↗pdf ↗

This research proves guarantees on sequence models' generalization to longer and novel sequences.

problem Generalization to longer sequences and novel token combinations in sequence models.
method Provable guarantees on length and compositional generalization for various sequence models.
result Limited capacity models achieve both length and compositional generalization with diverse training distributions.

Graph neural networks struggle to distinguish certain graph structures.

problem Difficulty in distinguishing graphs with graph neural networks.
method Analysis of communication capacity in message-passing model of graph neural networks.
result Capacity of MPNN needs to grow linearly for trees and quadratically for general connected graphs.

We study various capacities on compact Kähler manifolds which generalize the Bedford-Taylor Monge-Ampère capacity. We then use these capacities to study the existence and the regularity of solutions of complex Monge-Ampère equations.

2014-02-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Solves a discrete logarithmic Minkowski problem for electrostatic p-capacity.

problem Characterize measures generated by electrostatic p-capacity.
method Solves the discrete logarithmic Minkowski problem for 1 < p < n.
result Solves the discrete logarithmic Minkowski problem for measures in general position.

CapOptix uses options theory to price capacity in electricity markets.

problem Traditional capacity market designs fail to account for risk and price shocks.
method Interprets capacity commitments as reliability options and uses Markov Regime Switching Process.
result CapOptix provides more accurate pricing of capacity premia compared to existing mechanisms.

In this article, we propose the notion of the general pp-affine capacity and prove some basic properties for the general pp-affine capacity, such as affine invariance and monotonicity. The newly proposed general pp-affine capacity is compared with several classical geometric quantities, e.g., the volume, the pp-var…

2017-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.

problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.

While symplectic manifolds have no local invariants, they do admit many global numerical invariants. Prominent among them are the so-called symplectic capacities. Different capacities are defined in different ways, and so relations between capacities often lead to surprising relations between different aspects of sympl…

2005-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.

problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.

Study excess capacity in neural networks using Rademacher complexity.

problem Understanding how much capacity deep networks have beyond what's needed for classification.
method Unified Rademacher complexity bounds for function composition and convolutional layers, considering Lipschitz constants and initialization norms.
result There is substantial excess capacity per task, and capacity can be kept similar across different tasks.