Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments …
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “prediction stability”
Boosting framework for vector-valued prediction with geometric stability.
problem Lack of a general theoretical understanding of aggregation for structured prediction.
method Identifies -stability property and proposes a boosting framework based on exponential reweighting and geometric-median aggregation.
result Obtains exponential decay of empirical divergence error under weak learner condition and -stability.
Proposes a new stability measure for model fitting on similar feature data sets.
problem Model fitting on data sets with similar features is challenging.
method Tuning hyperparameters in a multi-criteria fashion with predictive accuracy and feature selection stability.
result Our approach achieves similar or better predictive performance than single-criteria and stability selection approaches.
Paper improves zero-shot protein stability prediction by clarifying free-energy foundations.
problem Improving zero-shot protein stability prediction using inverse folding models.
method Clarifying the free-energy foundations of inverse folding models and proposing better estimates of relative stability.
result Significant gains in zero-shot performance can be achieved with simple methods.
LOO-StabCP speeds up CP for multiple predictions.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and prediction accuracy in CP.
method Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction (LOO-StabCP) using algorithmic stability.
result LOO-StabCP is faster and more accurate than RO-StabCP.
Advanced Risk Prediction and Stability Assessment of Banks Using Time Series Transformer Modelsq-fin.RM
Paper uses Time Series Transformer for bank stability prediction.
problem Predicting bank stability using complex financial data.
method Time Series Transformer model with self-attention mechanism.
result Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in MSE and MAE.
Proteins are commonly used by biochemical industry for numerous processes. Refining these proteins' properties via mutations causes stability effects as well. Accurate computational method to predict how mutations affect protein stability are necessary to facilitate efficient protein design. However, accuracy of predic…
The Geometric Canary: Predicting Steerability and Detecting Drift via Representational Stabilitycs.LG
Geometric stability predicts steerability and detects drift in language models.
problem Predicting steerability and detecting drift in language models.
method Supervised and unsupervised geometric stability measures.
result Supervised geometric stability predicts steerability with high accuracy and detects drift earlier.
Random forests are stable and provide reliable prediction intervals.
problem Stability and reliability of random forest prediction intervals.
method Established stability under mild conditions and proved coverage bounds.
result Non-asymptotic lower and upper bounds for prediction interval coverage.
To date, the instability of prognostic predictors in a sparse high dimensional model, which hinders their clinical adoption, has received little attention. Stable prediction is often overlooked in favour of performance. Yet, stability prevails as key when adopting models in critical areas as healthcare. Our study propo…
Cluster Stability Selectionstat.ME
Cluster stability selection improves feature selection in correlated data.
problem Feature selection stability in correlated data.
method Cluster stability selection exploiting known cluster structure.
result Better predictive performance than lasso alone and stability selection.
A stability-based method selects the most desirable conformal prediction set.
problem Selecting the most desirable conformal prediction set from multiple valid sets invalidates coverage guarantees.
method A stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set.
result The stability-based approach maintains coverage guarantees for the selected prediction set.
The paper improves decision tree stability for health care applications.
problem Stability of decision trees in health care applications.
method Introducing a new distance metric to determine tree stability and proposing a novel training methodology.
result On average, a 4.6% decrease in predictive power yields a 38% increase in model stability.
The paper derives uniform stability-based coverage bounds for conformal prediction methods.
problem Establishing theoretical guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
method Uniform stability perspective applied to full-conformal, jackknife+, and CV+ prediction regions.
result Coverage bounds for finite-dimensional models derived using a concentration argument.
Stability in clinical prediction models is crucial for transferability between studies, yet has received little attention. The problem is paramount in high dimensional data which invites sparse models with feature selection capability. We introduce an effective method to stabilize sparse Cox model of time-to-events usi…
New method stabilizes machine learning predictions across random seeds.
problem Machine learning predictions vary across random seeds, causing instability.
method Introduces adaptive cross-bagging to eliminate seed dependence.
result Adaptive cross-bagging achieves targeted stability in debiased machine learning.
New method stabilizes deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
problem Stability issues in deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
method Bootstrapping-based regularisation framework embedded in deep neural networks.
result Improved prediction stability across multiple datasets.
Recently, many regularized procedures have been proposed for variable selection in linear regression, but their performance depends on the tuning parameter selection. Here a criterion for the tuning parameter selection is proposed, which combines the strength of both stability selection and cross-validation and therefo…
Pipeline learns topological features for protein stability prediction.
problem Predicting protein stability using topological features.
method Data-driven method to learn topological features, comparing with expert features.
result Topological features achieve 92%-99% of SME-based models' performance.
We derive Gaussian approximations for random forest predictions using region-based stabilization.
problem Improving the accuracy of random forest predictions for Poisson process data.
method Region-based stabilization and Malliavin-Stein method for multivariate Gaussian approximation.
result Established Gaussian approximation bounds for random forest predictions under Poisson process.
Online algorithms stabilize in feedback loops of performative prediction.
problem Feedback loops in algorithmic predictions influence data distributions.
method Martingale argument and randomization to avoid distributional assumptions.
result No-regret algorithms converge to performatively stable equilibria.
Proposes BSSP to stabilize predictions in biased data.
problem Distribution shift between training and test data causes prediction instability.
method Balance-subsampled stable prediction (BSSP) algorithm based on fractional factorial design.
result Significantly improves prediction stability across unknown test data.
Tactile sensors provide useful contact data during the interaction with an object which can be used to accurately learn to determine the stability of a grasp. Most of the works in the literature represented tactile readings as plain feature vectors or matrix-like tactile images, using them to train machine learning mod…
AUASE embeds dynamic networks with stability guarantees for node comparison.
problem Stability in dynamic network embeddings for comparing nodes across time.
method Attributed unfolded adjacency spectral embedding (AUASE) for stable unsupervised learning.
result AUASE provides significant improvements in link prediction and node classification.
Improves prediction stability with model misspecification and distribution shift.
problem Inaccurate parameter estimation and instability of prediction in real-world applications.
method Proposes Decorrelated Weighting Regression (DWR) algorithm to optimize weights for samples and variables.
result Significantly improves accuracy of parameter estimation and prediction stability.
Proposes a score to compare rule-based algorithms' interpretability.
problem Lack of consensus on interpretability for predictive models.
method Defines a score with three terms: predictivity, stability, and simplicity, each quantified by simple formulas.
result Compares interpretability of rule-based and tree-based algorithms for regression and classification.
Private classification and online prediction are shown to be equivalent.
problem Learning with differential privacy and online prediction equivalence.
method Introducing global stability and proving equivalence between online learnability and private PAC learnability.
result Every concept class with finite Littlestone dimension can be learned by a differentially-private algorithm.
A Stable Lassostat.ME
Improves Lasso's stability in correlated predictor settings.
problem Lasso's selection stability deteriorates with correlated predictors.
method Integrates a weighting scheme into the Lasso penalty function, using a correlation-adjusted ranking.
result Demonstrates improved selection stability on simulated and real-world datasets.
Log-Ergodic Dynamics in Stochastic Monetary Velocity: Theoretical Insights and Economic Implicationsq-fin.GN
Log-ergodic model improves velocity of money prediction.
problem Improving velocity of money prediction for economic control.
method Log-ergodic processes to simulate monetary velocity.
result Log-ergodic model offers superior predictive power.
Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
problem Modern data analysis lacks mechanisms to show the clarity, conflict, or stability of evidence behind predictions.
method Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions.
result SEF measures conflict and stability, and shows that conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence.
A fast method estimates stability of ensemble feature selectors.
problem Improving stability of ensemble feature selectors for better prediction.
method Simulator of a feature selector to estimate stability.
result Reduces computation time for estimating stability.
Gradient Reduction Convolutional Neural Network Policy for Financial Deep Reinforcement Learningq-fin.CP
Enhanced CNN for financial data improves predictive accuracy and stability.
problem Complexity and variability in financial data.
method Normalization and Gradient Reduction Architecture.
result Improvement in model accuracy and stability.
A stability metric compares feature selection algorithms in machine learning.
problem Stability of feature selection algorithms in machine learning.
method Rank-based instability index to compare MDA, LIME, and SHAP algorithms.
result LIME and SHAP are more stable than MDA, with LIME being best for human interpretability.
The study identifies conditions under which algorithmic stability explains generalization in interpolating learning systems.
problem Understanding when algorithmic stability explains generalization in interpolating learning systems.
method Modeling training as a function-space trajectory and measuring sensitivity to single-sample perturbations.
result There exist interpolating regimes with small risk where contractive sensitivity cannot hold, showing that stability is not a universal explanation.
Improved TreNet for trend prediction in time series data.
problem Validation method for TreNet did not account for time series data's sequential nature.
method Walk-forward validation method and multiple independent runs to evaluate model stability.
result TreNet still performs better than vanilla DNN models but not on all data sets.
Machine learning predicts molecular crystal stability.
problem Predicting the stability of molecular crystals.
method Supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques to classify and predict lattice energy.
result Data-driven assessment of chemical groups' contribution to crystal stability.
Study finds machine learning interpretations are often unstable and unreliable.
problem Reliability of machine learning interpretations in high-stakes domains.
method Stability study on global interpretations using tabular data.
result Popular interpretation methods are frequently unstable, less stable than predictions, and not associated with prediction accuracy.
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
problem Predictions that affect the outcomes they predict, leading to undesirable distribution shift.
method Risk minimization framework combining statistics, game theory, and causality.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for retraining to converge to a performatively stable point of minimal loss.
StableDR stabilizes doubly robust learning for biased recommendation data.
problem Data missing not at random in recommender systems.
method StableDR, a stabilized doubly robust learning approach.
result StableDR achieves bounded bias, variance, and generalization error.
Predictive coding networks are shown to be stable, robust, and converge faster than backpropagation.
problem Stability, robustness, and convergence of predictive coding networks.
method Dynamical systems theory and Lyapunov stability analysis.
result Predictive coding networks are Lyapunov stable and converge faster than backpropagation.
Measures consistency of tabular LLM predictions under fine-tuning multiplicity.
problem Conflicting predictions from fine-tuned tabular LLMs.
method Local stability measure in embedding space.
result Probabilistic guarantees on prediction consistency under multiplicity.
Method predicts which high-dimensional correlation signs will change in the future.
problem Predicting which correlation matrix coefficients will change signs in high-dimensional data.
method Stability of correlation signs depends on three-by-three relationships, inspired by Heider social cohesion theory.
result The method accurately predicts the stability of correlation signs in high-dimensional data.
Visually predicting the stability of block towers is a popular task in the domain of intuitive physics. While previous work focusses on prediction accuracy, a one-dimensional performance measure, we provide a broader analysis of the learned physical understanding of the final model and how the learning process can be g…
Efficient inference for adaptive data with directional stability condition.
problem Efficient inference on scalar targets after adaptive data collection.
method Introduces directional stability, a weaker condition than i.i.d. data, and shows asymptotic normality and efficiency of estimators.
result Estimators remain asymptotically normal and semiparametrically efficient under directional stability.
Stacking is a general approach for combining multiple models toward greater predictive accuracy. It has found various application across different domains, ensuing from its meta-learning nature. Our understanding, nevertheless, on how and why stacking works remains intuitive and lacking in theoretical insight. In this …
This paper extends performative prediction to nonlinear cases.
problem Performative prediction's effectiveness is limited by linear assumptions in real-world applications.
method Formulated a maximum margin approach loss function and extended it to nonlinear spaces using kernel methods.
result Derived conditions for performative stability in both linear and nonlinear cases.
Ensemble learning that can be used to combine the predictions from multiple learners has been widely applied in pattern recognition, and has been reported to be more robust and accurate than the individual learners. This ensemble logic has recently also been more applied in feature selection. There are basically two st…
Spectral graph sparsification preserves geometry of GNN embeddings.
problem Maintaining geometric properties of graph neural network embeddings during sparsification.
method Proving spectral sparsification preserves squared pairwise distances, class means, and covariance structure in embedding space.
result Spectral sparsification preserves the geometry of learned embeddings in GNNs.