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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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129258387516 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for prediction profiler

Method controls extrapolation in prediction profiles for statistical and machine learning models.

problem Avoiding invalid predictions due to extrapolation in prediction profiles.
method Genetic algorithm optimization over constrained factor regions.
result Optimal factor settings without constraint are often invalid and extrapolated.

New algorithm extracts device profiles for short-term power predictions in commercial buildings.

problem Short-term power prediction in commercial buildings with high accuracy.
method Unsupervised extraction of device profiles from aggregate power measurements, disaggregation using particle swarm optimization, and state changes forecast by artificial neural networks.
result Developed approach outperforms existing methods with high accuracy.

The possibility of using player engagement predictions to profile high spending video game users is explored. In particular, individual-player survival curves in terms of days after first login, game level reached and accumulated playtime are used to classify players into different groups. Lifetime value predictions fo…

2019-07-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Study compares MoE and RNN models for stock price prediction across volatility profiles.

problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy across different volatility levels.
method Dynamic Mixture of Experts model combining RNN and linear models, adjusting weights through a gating network.
result MoE model outperforms individual models in reducing prediction errors.

Study ridge regression for non-identically distributed data with varying variances.

problem Investigate high-dimensional regression with non-identical data variance.
method Propose a random effect model and use tools from random matrix theory.
result Highlight the double descent phenomenon in high-dimensional regression for certain variance profiles.

The grid integration of intermittent Renewable Energy Sources (RES) causes costs for grid operators due to forecast uncertainty and the resulting production schedule mismatches. These so-called profile service costs are marginal cost components and can be understood as an insurance fee against RES production schedule u…

2014-07-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Study compares ANN and GARCH models for volatility prediction across sectors.

problem Comparing ANN and GARCH models for volatility prediction.
method Examined five sectors with low, medium, and high volatility, using three GARCH specifications and three ANN architectures.
result ANN model performs better for low volatility, GARCH for medium and high.

Conventional survival analysis approaches estimate risk scores or individualized time-to-event distributions conditioned on covariates. In practice, there is often great population-level phenotypic heterogeneity, resulting from (unknown) subpopulations with diverse risk profiles or survival distributions. As a result, …

2020-02-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper develops a method to predict cancer patient survival using molecular profiles.

problem Accurately predicting cancer patient survival with complex survival-molecular profile relationships.
method Kernel Cox partially linear regression with a novel regularized garrotized kernel machine (RegGKM) method.
result The proposed method outperforms other methods in predicting survival accuracy.

Generative profiling improves real-time task timing for varied resource contexts.

problem Inaccurate task timing analysis for complex hardware architectures.
method Nonparametric, conditional multi-marginal Schrödinger Bridge (MSB) formulation for synthesizing context-dependent timing profiles.
result Maximum likelihood accurate execution profiles for unseen resource contexts.

Forecastability measures predictive information across horizons.

problem How much predictive information is available at each prediction horizon?
method Develops the consequences of mutual information between future observations and information set.
result Forecastability is a profile reflecting process dependence structure, with properties like compression and truncation error.

Proposes a deep neural network for predicting clustered time-to-event data.

problem Predicting clustered time-to-event data with subject-specific frailties.
method Deep neural network based gamma frailty model (DNN-FM) trained using negative profiled h-likelihood.
result Enhances prediction performance compared to existing methods.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

Bayesian model reduces TV watching data to 11 parameters for churn prediction.

problem Predicting customer churn in telecommunications with high-dimensional data.
method Bayesian hierarchical joint model for time-to-event and count data.
result Model reduces data from thousands to 11 customer-level parameter estimates.

In precision agriculture (PA), soil sampling and testing operation is prior to planting any new crop. It is an expensive operation since there are many soil characteristics to take into account. This paper gives an overview of soil characteristics and their relationships with crop yield and soil profiling. We propose a…

2019-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we consider formal series associated with events, profiles derived from events, and statistical models that make predictions about events. We prove theorems about realizations for these formal series using the language and tools of Hopf algebras.

2009-01-18abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a new class of context dependent, incomplete information games to serve as structured prediction models for settings with significant strategic interactions. Our games map the input context to outcomes by first condensing the input into private player types that specify the utilities, weighted interactions…

2019-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

The virtualization of compute and network resources enables an unseen flexibility for deploying network services. A wide spectrum of emerging technologies allows an ever-growing range of orchestration possibilities in cloud-based environments. But in this context it remains challenging to rhyme dynamic cloud configurat…

2019-11-18abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose Style Conditioned Recommendations (SCR) and introduce style injection as a method to diversify recommendations. We use Conditional Variational Autoencoder (CVAE) architecture, where both the encoder and decoder are conditioned on a user profile learned from item content data. This allows us to apply style tr…

2019-07-25abs ↗pdf ↗

PRoFILE accurately estimates feature importance under distribution shifts.

problem Challenges in estimating feature importance under distribution shifts.
method PRoFILE uses a loss estimator trained with a causal objective to estimate feature importance.
result PRoFILE accurately estimates feature importance under complex distribution shifts.

ANNs predict SAFARI-1 neutron fluxes with uncertainties.

problem Uncertainty quantification in ANN predictions for SAFARI-1.
method Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN VI) for uncertainty quantification.
result Uncertainty bands envelop noisy measurement data points, indicating good prediction and generalization.

Study data biases to predict algorithmic discrimination, developing a Data Bias Profile.

problem Data biases contribute to algorithmic discrimination, but their impact is understudied.
method Analyzed three common data biases across various datasets and models, developing a Data Bias Profile.
result Combination of proxies and label bias can lead to more significant discrimination than underrepresentation alone.

Paper tackles graph class-incremental learning with task profiling and prompting.

problem Challenges in separating classes from different tasks in graph CIL.
method Laplacian smoothing-based task profiling and graph prompting approach.
result 100% task ID prediction accuracy and significant performance improvement.

We equip many non compact non simply connected surfaces with smooth Riemannian metrics whose isoperimetric profile is smooth, a highly non generic property. The computation of the profile is based on a calibration argument, a rearrangement argument, the Bol-Fiala curvature dependent inequality, together with new result…

2007-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a spectrum of monotone coarse invariants for metric measure spaces called Poincaré profiles. The two extremes of this spectrum determine the growth of the space, and the separation profile as defined by Benjamini--Schramm--Timár. In this paper we focus on properties of the Poincaré profiles of groups with …

2017-07-07abs ↗pdf ↗

MGM improves media profiling by integrating textual and structural features.

problem Evaluating the bias and factuality of news media from digital data.
method MediaGraphMind (MGM) framework using variational EM, integrating textual and structural features.
result Achieves new state-of-the-art results in media profiling.

Logarithmic separation profile in hyperbolic groups shows hierarchical structure.

problem Understanding hierarchical structure in hyperbolic groups with logarithmic separation.
method Proving groups with logarithmic separation split over cyclic groups and providing counterexamples.
result Not all groups with hierarchical structure have logarithmic separation profile.

Framework detects shape shifts in functional profiles using Fréchet mean and shape invariant model.

problem Detecting shape shifts in functional profiles.
method Combining Fréchet mean and shape invariant model for interpretable parameterization of profile deviations.
result Potential shifts in shape deformation process distinguished by significant shifts in amplitude and/or phase.

Gu and Zhu have shown that Type-II Ricci flow singularities develop from nongeneric rotationally symmetric Riemannian metrics on SmS^m, for all m3m\geq 3. In this paper, we describe and provide plausibility arguments for a detailed asymptotic profile and rate of curvature blow-up that we predict such solutions exhibit.

2010-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Defense against user shilling attacks in collaborative filtering using edge reweighting.

problem Vulnerability of collaborative filtering to profile injection attacks.
method Adversarial robustness based edge reweighting to attenuate non-robust edges.
result Effective defense against various types of attacks demonstrated through experiments.