A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions, especially when models are unsure.
method Formalizing ML with reject option, using conformal prediction for distribution-free error guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on error rate for prediction sets with distribution-free validity.
Paper assesses error estimates of Random Forests classification.
problem Quantitative assessment of Random Forests error estimates.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of various error estimation methods.
result Random Forests' error estimates are closer to true error rate than average prediction error.
This paper reviews methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
problem Challenges in assessing uncertainty of error rates in matching algorithms, especially when data are dependent and error rates are low.
method Derives and examines statistical properties of methods for constructing confidence intervals for error rates in 1:1 matching tasks.
result Coverage and interval width vary with sample size, error rates, and data dependence.
Optimizes prediction error method for time-varying models.
problem Achieving optimal prediction error rates for time-varying models.
method Nonlinear least squares method for time-varying parametric models.
result First rate-optimal non-asymptotic analysis for time-varying models.
Paper develops an online learning algorithm for functional data models.
problem Recovering slope functions or predictors in functional data models.
method Online regularized learning algorithm in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces with polynomially decaying step-size.
result Established fast convergence rates for estimation error without capacity assumption.
The paper tackles fast rates in structured prediction problems.
problem Structured prediction problems with discrete outputs.
method Introducing continuous surrogate problems and leveraging their convergence rates for discrete problems.
result Super fast rates, including exponential rates, for excess risk in structured prediction problems.
Study derives error decay rates for kernel classification under source and capacity conditions.
problem Understanding prediction error decay rates for real data sets.
method Derived decay rates for misclassification error under Gaussian design for SVM and ridge classification.
result Rates accurately describe learning curves for data sets satisfying source and capacity conditions.
New welfare-based fairness notions align with existing error rate balance and predictive parity.
problem Aligning fairness notions with welfare-based criteria.
method Discussing and establishing conditions for envy freeness and prejudice freeness.
result Envy freeness and prejudice freeness are equivalent to error rate balance and predictive parity.
Improves risk control in predictions using semi-supervised calibration.
problem Noisy hyper-parameter tuning from limited labeled data.
method Semi-supervised calibration using unlabeled data to tune hyper-parameters rigorously.
result Improves prediction accuracy without sacrificing statistical validity.
Investigates fast prediction rates with limited expert advice.
problem Minimizing excess generalization error with limited expert access.
method Assumes Lipschitz and strongly convex loss, designs novel algorithms.
result Achieves fast rates of O(1/T) with optimal number of expert advices.
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
The paper analyzes prediction error in nonstationary settings using weighted risk minimization.
problem Prediction under distribution drift and nonstationary conditions.
method General decomposition of excess risk into learning and drift terms, proving oracle inequalities under mixing conditions.
result Oracle inequalities for the learning error, providing bounds that hold uniformly over arbitrary weight classes.
With a growing interest in using non-representative samples to train prediction models for numerous outcomes it is necessary to account for the sampling design that gives rise to the data in order to assess the generalized predictive utility of a proposed prediction rule. After learning a prediction rule based on a non…
In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics i…
Crowdsourcing is an effective tool for human-powered computation on many tasks challenging for computers. In this paper, we provide finite-sample exponential bounds on the error rate (in probability and in expectation) of hyperplane binary labeling rules under the Dawid-Skene crowdsourcing model. The bounds can be appl…
The paper develops bounds for predictive values in binary classification.
problem Lack of confidence intervals for positive and negative predictive values.
method Bi-criterion framework and distribution-free large deviation and uniform convergence bounds.
result New bounds for predictive values without relying on concentration inequalities.
Paper adapts ACI for online multi-step time-series forecasting with coverage guarantees.
problem Achieving reliable error bounds in online multi-step time-series forecasting.
method Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) adapted for multi-step forecasting with dynamic significance levels.
result Proposes a multi-step ACI algorithm with finite-sample coverage guarantees for non-exchangeable data.
PredictaBoard benchmarks LLM score predictors to assess their ability to anticipate errors.
problem Inconsistent performance of LLMs in common sense reasoning tasks.
method Collaborative benchmarking framework evaluating pairs of LLMs and assessors using rejection rate at different tolerance errors.
result Highlights the need to evaluate predictability alongside performance for safer AI systems.
Unified framework for robust linear predictions without distributional assumptions.
problem Robust linear predictions in the presence of outliers and model misspecification.
method Unified robust framework for linear prediction problems on Hilbert spaces, using Median of Means (MoM) approach.
result Achieves an error rate of \(O(\max\left\{|\mathcal{O}|^{1/2}n^{-1/2}, |\mathcal{I}|^{1/2}n^{-1}
ight\}+ε)\) for misspecification level \(ε\), matching best-known rates.
The paper addresses errors in online selective conformal prediction and proposes new strategies to ensure valid inference.
problem Online selective conformal prediction's exchangeability issues and false coverage rate control problems.
method Evaluation and correction of existing calibration selection strategies, proposing new ones that preserve exchangeability.
result Novel calibration selection strategies ensure both selection-conditional coverage and FCR control.
Hybrid QML model improves recovery rate prediction accuracy.
problem Complex nonlinear dependencies, high-dimensional feature spaces, and limited sample sizes in recovery rate forecasting.
method Hybrid Quantum Machine Learning (QML) with Amplitude Encoding, leveraging PQC and qubit data compression.
result Significantly lower RMSE (0.228) compared to classical models.
We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk minimization for model selection. We demonstrate our methods by predicting interest…
The reactions of the human body to physical exercise, psychophysiological stress and heart diseases are reflected in heart rate variability (HRV). Thus, continuous monitoring of HRV can contribute to determining and predicting issues in well-being and mental health. HRV can be measured in everyday life by consumer wear…
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.
We find a deterministic equivalent for random feature regression's test error, independent of feature map dimension.
problem Understanding the generalization performance of random feature ridge regression.
method We derive a deterministic equivalent for the test error of RFRR under a concentration property, showing it can be approximated by a closed-form expression dependent on feature map eigenvalues.
result Our approximation guarantee is non-asymptotic, multiplicative, and independent of the feature map dimension, providing a tight result for the smallest number of features achieving optimal minimax error rate.
This paper studies the problem of estimating the grahpon model - the underlying generating mechanism of a network. Graphon estimation arises in many applications such as predicting missing links in networks and learning user preferences in recommender systems. The graphon model deals with a random graph of n vertices…
Deep learning predicts frame errors in CIRN using SC2 dataset.
problem Predicting frame errors in Collaborative Intelligent Radio Networks (CIRN).
method Deep learning model trained on SC2 dataset with randomized or fixed bandwidth and channel allocation strategies.
result Deep learning model predicts frame error rates and instances with interesting characteristics over different SNR ranges.
Ensembling improves performance when classifiers disagree more than average.
problem When do ensembles provide significant performance improvements in classification tasks?
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of ensemble improvement rate and disagreement-error ratio.
result Ensembling improves performance significantly when the disagreement rate is large relative to the average error rate.
The paper shows how demographic data can lead to biased predictions, proposing 'Affirmative Information' as a solution.
problem Bias in predictions due to demographic data.
method Characterization of error types and conditions leading to disparate impact.
result Demographic variables in data can lead to biased predictions, with higher average outcomes receiving higher false positive rates.
TeLeS improves ASR confidence estimation by considering temporal alignment and lexical errors.
problem Inaccurate confidence scores from E2E ASR models, especially for overconfident predictions.
method Proposes TeLeS, a novel confidence score that considers temporal alignment and lexical errors, and uses shrinkage loss to handle data imbalance.
result TeLeS generalizes well across different languages and ASR models, leading to significant WER reduction.
The study analyzes prediction errors in systems with memory kernels, providing bounds and stability results.
problem Prediction errors in stochastic dynamical systems with memory kernels.
method Analysis of generalized Langevin equations (GLEs) with Volterra equations, integrating synchronized noise coupling and weighted norms.
result Prediction discrepancies decay at a rate determined by the memory kernel's decay, quantitatively bounded by kernel estimation errors.
We study prediction and estimation problems using empirical risk minimization, relative to a general convex loss function. We obtain sharp error rates even when concentration is false or is very restricted, for example, in heavy-tailed scenarios. Our results show that the error rate depends on two parameters: one captu…
Forward regression is a statistical model selection and estimation procedure which inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical regression model. Once a model is selected, unknown regression parameters are estimated by least squares. This paper analyzes forward regression in high-…
New research shows the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier doesn't adapt to sparse ground truths.
problem Understanding the limitations of the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier in high-dimensional settings.
method Analyzing convergence and prediction error rates of the maximum ℓ1-margin classifier.
result Proves tight upper and lower bounds for prediction error, showing benign overfitting.
Collaborative filtering (CF) is a popular technique in today's recommender systems, and matrix approximation-based CF methods have achieved great success in both rating prediction and top-N recommendation tasks. However, real-world user-item rating matrices are typically sparse, incomplete and noisy, which introduce ch…
OnlineSCI extends ACI for adaptive selective inference with improved coverage and IER control.
problem Adaptive selective inference in online settings with improved coverage and IER control.
method Adaptive selective inference with extended ACI algorithm.
result OnlineSCI controls average missed coverage and instantaneous error rate at selected times, up to a non-asymptotic remainder term.
While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where identifying unreliable predictions is essential, e.g. precision medicine. Here, we prese…
The paper analyzes how conformal prediction works with contaminated reference data.
problem The impact of contamination on the validity and power of conformal prediction methods.
method The paper analyzes the impact of contamination on the validity of conformal methods and proposes a data-cleaning framework to enhance power.
result The proposed data-cleaning framework can effectively enhance power while maintaining type-I error control.
Selective prediction framework reduces errors in molecular structure identification from MS/MS.
problem High-stakes applications require reliable molecular structure identification from MS/MS data.
method Selective prediction framework using risk-coverage tradeoff and uncertainty quantification.
result First-order confidence measures and retrieval-level aleatoric uncertainty achieve strong risk-coverage tradeoffs.
For predictive maintenance, we examine one of the largest public datasets for machine failures derived along with their corresponding precursors as error rates, historical part replacements, and sensor inputs. To simplify the time and accuracy comparison between 27 different algorithms, we treat the imbalance between n…
A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.
problem Difficulty in long-horizon value prediction in offline reinforcement learning.
method Bellman calibration, a weak reliability criterion, and Iterated Bellman Calibration.
result Finite-sample guarantees show that Bellman calibration error is controlled at nonparametric rates.
Improved BO algorithms reduce prediction error under Gaussian noise.
problem Reducing prediction error in Bayesian optimization with Gaussian noise.
method Established new prediction error bounds for Gaussian process under frequentist setting.
result Proved improved convergence rates of cumulative regret for GP-UCB and GP-TS.
Method estimates mixture components without discretizing parameters.
problem Learning from mixtures of continuous features with noise.
method Off-the-grid optimization method for continuous parameter space.
result Prediction error bound similar to Lasso predictor.
Improved SGD for non-strongly-convex regression with faster convergence.
problem Non-strongly-convex least squares regression problems.
method Modified accelerated gradient descent.
result Achieves optimal prediction error rates of O(d/t) and forgets initial conditions faster to O(d/t2). Benchmarking 18 deep neural network selective classification models on various datasets.
problem Designing a model that can abstain from making predictions when there's high risk of error.
method Evaluation of 18 selective classification models using multiple criteria.
result No single model is the clear winner; best model depends on objectives.
New model corrects bias in crowdsourced ratings for diverse items.
problem Bias and noise in crowdsourced ratings for training data.
method Bayesian rating model with item-level effects for difficulty, discriminativeness, and guessability.
result New model avoids bias in training data, improving model goodness of fit.
We investigate the prediction capability of the orthogonal greedy algorithm (OGA) in high-dimensional regression models with dependent observations. The rates of convergence of the prediction error of OGA are obtained under a variety of sparsity conditions. To prevent OGA from overfitting, we introduce a high-dimension…
New method predicts and optimizes matrix recovery from noisy measurements.
problem Recovering rank-1 matrices from Gaussian measurements with noise.
method Stochastic prox-linear iterative algorithm with trajectory predictions.
result The method converges linearly with accurate predictions of error.