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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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177355532709 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for prediction error diagnosis

CD-RCA method identifies causal relationships in prediction errors without predefined graphs.

problem Challenges in diagnosing prediction errors due to lack of transparency in black-box models.
method Causal-Discovery-based Root-Cause Analysis (CD-RCA) method that estimates causal relationships without predefined causal graphs.
result CD-RCA outperforms heuristic attribution methods in identifying variable contributions to prediction errors.

ABC improves uncertainty quantification in LLMs for clinical diagnostics.

problem Overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates of LLMs in clinical domains.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for likelihood-free inference.
result Improves accuracy by up to 46.9%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4%, and enhances calibration.

CAT improves domain adaptation for fault diagnosis by calibrating teacher network predictions.

problem Performance drops in deep learning models when applied to different data distributions.
method CAT uses post-hoc calibration techniques to calibrate predictions of the teacher network during self-training.
result CAT achieves state-of-the-art performance on most transfer tasks in domain-adaptive IFD.

The widespread digitization of patient data via electronic health records (EHRs) has created an unprecedented opportunity to use machine learning algorithms to better predict disease risk at the patient level. Although predictive models have previously been constructed for a few important diseases, such as breast cance…

2019-07-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.

problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.

AI-assisted heart disease diagnosis reduces misdiagnosis and saves lives.

problem Misdiagnosis of heart disease leads to unnecessary deaths.
method Developed an AI application using ML and DNN algorithms on a dataset from the Cleveland Clinic Foundation.
result DNN model achieved a 92% accuracy rate, reducing misdiagnosis.

Framework predicts responses in misspecified systems using GPLFM and BNNs.

problem Predicting responses in dynamical systems with model misspecification.
method Integrates GPLFM and BNNs for uncertainty-aware inference and prediction.
result Systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction.

Bayesian deep learning ensemble improves pneumonia diagnosis accuracy.

problem Manual, time-consuming pneumonia diagnosis with high inter-observer variability.
method Multi-level ensemble classification system using Bayesian Deep Learning.
result Accuracy of 98.06% in differentiating four pathologies.

This paper diagnoses factor-model pricing errors using a new method.

problem Measuring pricing errors in factor models with general characteristic axes.
method Developed a method to measure factor-model pricing errors as bridge-alpha curves, using a predetermined characteristic order and prefix portfolios.
result Adding a counterpart factor flips the curve's sign on every axis, but only HML and CMA overcorrect enough to be rejected.

With recent advances in deep learning, neuroimaging studies increasingly rely on convolutional networks (ConvNets) to predict diagnosis based on MR images. To gain a better understanding of how a disease impacts the brain, the studies visualize the salience maps of the ConvNet highlighting voxels within the brain major…

2019-07-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm in binary classification seeks classifiers that achieve a minimal type II error while enforcing the prioritized type I error controlled under some user-specified level αα. This paradigm serves naturally in applications such as severe disease diagnosis and spam detection, where people h…

2018-02-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning model diagnoses COVID-19 from routine blood tests.

problem Difficulty in diagnosing COVID-19 due to inconsistent blood parameter changes.
method Constructed a machine learning model using 5,333 patients with various infections and 160 COVID-19-positive patients.
result Cross-validated AUC of 0.97, sensitivity of 81.9%, specificity of 97.9%.

CNN improves OSA diagnosis accuracy from PSG data.

problem Manual PSG analysis by specialists is tedious, time-consuming, and prone to errors.
method 1D CNN architecture with convolutional and FCN layers for OSA severity classification.
result Proposed CNN model achieves excellent classification results without manual preprocessing.

Quick and accurate medical diagnosis is crucial for the successful treatment of a disease. Using machine learning algorithms, we have built two models to predict a hematologic disease, based on laboratory blood test results. In one predictive model, we used all available blood test parameters and in the other a reduced…

2017-08-01abs ↗pdf ↗

We show how to learn low-dimensional representations (embeddings) of patient visits from the corresponding electronic health record (EHR) where International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnosis codes are removed. We expect that these embeddings will be useful for the construction of predictive statistical models…

2018-03-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.

problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.

Quantitative CT predicts ILD patterns and prognosis.

problem Diagnosing and predicting prognosis of fibrosing ILD patterns.
method High-resolution CT texture features, TM model for classification and survival analysis.
result TM model outperforms histogram-based model in distinguishing UIP from non-UIP patterns and allows for survival group partitioning.

Optimal decision-making using prediction sets to minimize risk.

problem Using prediction sets optimally for decision-making in uncertain scenarios.
method Decision-theoretic framework that seeks to minimize expected loss against a worst-case distribution.
result ROCP algorithm reduces critical mistakes compared to baselines, especially in costly out-of-set errors.

PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.

problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.

A data-driven approach predicts morphological development under structural instability.

problem Understanding and predicting spatiotemporal complexities of morphogenesis under structural instability.
method Machine-learning framework based on physical modeling of morphogenesis.
result Identification of key bifurcation characteristics and prediction of history-dependent development.

Hierarchical CNNs improve diagnosis of GI diseases from histopathological images.

problem Diagnosing GI diseases from histopathological images is challenging due to heterogeneity and shared features.
method Embedded a class hierarchy into a VGGNet to address the hierarchical structure of GI diseases.
result The hierarchical model achieved better results than a flat model for multi-category diagnosis of GI disorders.

A two-layer neural network model that systematically includes correlations among input variables to arbitrary order and is designed to implement Bayes inference has been adapted to classify breast cancer tumors as malignant or benign, assigning a probability for either outcome. The inputs to the network represent measu…

2019-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Clinical notes are text documents that are created by clinicians for each patient encounter. They are typically accompanied by medical codes, which describe the diagnosis and treatment. Annotating these codes is labor intensive and error prone; furthermore, the connection between the codes and the text is not annotated…

2018-02-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Study uses multi-task Bayesian optimization to speed up SVM hyperparameter tuning for nodules diagnosis.

problem Redundant and time-consuming hyperparameter tuning for SVM classifiers in medical imaging.
method Employed multi-task Bayesian optimization to accelerate hyperparameter search.
result Multi-task Bayesian optimization significantly accelerates hyperparameter search.

Unified framework for imputation and prediction in healthcare time series.

problem Time misalignment and data sparsity in healthcare time series.
method MAGIC (Multi-tAsk Gaussian Process for Imputation and Classification) using hierarchical multi-task Gaussian process and functional logistic regression.
result Superior predictive accuracy compared to existing methods in two healthcare applications.

Framework for joint learning of tasks on dementia data with missing values.

problem Lack of multi-task learning, handling time-dependent data, and missing values in dementia forecasting.
method Proposes SSHIBA model using Bayesian variational inference for imputation and combined information from different views.
result SSHIBA model outperforms baselines in predicting diagnosis, ventricle volume, and clinical scores in dementia.

In order to submit a claim to insurance companies, a doctor needs to code a patient encounter with both the diagnosis (ICDs) and procedures performed (CPTs) in an Electronic Health Record (EHR). Identifying and applying relevant procedures code is a cumbersome and time-consuming task as a doctor has to choose from arou…

2017-12-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Backward Conformal Prediction offers flexible control over prediction set sizes while ensuring coverage guarantees.

problem Providing reliable prediction sets with controlled sizes in applications like medical diagnosis.
method Defines a rule that constrains prediction set sizes based on observed data, adapting coverage levels.
result Maintains computable coverage guarantees while ensuring interpretable, well-controlled prediction set sizes.