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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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145291436581 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for prediction bias

Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.

problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.

The paper debiases machine learning predictions to correct bias in regression coefficients.

problem Bias in regression coefficients from machine learning predictions.
method Proposes an adversarial machine learning algorithm to de-bias predictions.
result Adversarial predictions recover true coefficients, while naive predictions are biased.

We study the phenomenon of bias amplification in classifiers, wherein a machine learning model learns to predict classes with a greater disparity than the underlying ground truth. We demonstrate that bias amplification can arise via an inductive bias in gradient descent methods that results in the overestimation of the…

2018-12-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Machine learning can improve 2SLS first stage predictions, but nonlinear methods often introduce bias.

problem Improving the first stage of 2SLS using machine learning.
method Decomposed bias into three components, investigated through simulation.
result Nonlinear machine learning methods can introduce substantial bias in second-stage estimates.

Study improves confidence measures in medical imaging pipelines by addressing bias.

problem Bias in metric-based imaging pipelines compromises the efficiency of prediction intervals.
method Formalized symmetric and asymmetric CP formulations, analyzed bias effects, and validated empirically.
result Symmetric intervals are inflated by bias, while asymmetric intervals remain unaffected.

We quantify causal bias in continuous treatment settings.

problem Identifying and quantifying causal bias in continuous treatment scenarios.
method Developed a novel characterization of causal bias in structural causal models, proving conditions for zero bias and efficient estimation.
result Causal bias can be estimated efficiently under certain structural equation restrictions, allowing for causal regularization of predictive models.

BC-ACI corrects time series forecast bias, improving prediction intervals.

problem Persistent bias in time series forecasts leads to overly conservative prediction intervals.
method Augments ACI with an EWM estimate of forecast bias to correct nonconformity scores and re-center intervals.
result Reduces Winkler interval scores by 13-17% under distribution shifts, improving calibration.

Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.

problem Scarcity and selection bias in political ideology prediction.
method Proposes a statistical model decomposing embeddings into context and position vectors, training an end-to-end model for deployment.
result Model can predict ideological labels even with minimal biased data, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

The paper analyzes the bias-variance tradeoff for Bregman divergences.

problem Understanding the bias-variance tradeoff for Bregman divergences.
method Analyzes the bias-variance tradeoff through operations in dual space.
result Derives several results including a generalized law of total variance and ensembling operations.

The paper detects and identifies bias in data using a counterfactual approach.

problem Detecting and identifying bias in data, especially in medical image classification.
method A global explanation framework using the counterfactual approach to identify bias causing artifacts.
result Black frames significantly influence Convolutional Neural Network's prediction, changing benign to malignant.

Recent developments in Neural Relation Extraction (NRE) have made significant strides towards Automated Knowledge Base Construction (AKBC). While much attention has been dedicated towards improvements in accuracy, there have been no attempts in the literature to our knowledge to evaluate social biases in NRE systems. W…

2019-11-09abs ↗pdf ↗

This work introduces a bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, improving uncertainty estimation in predictive models.

problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for predictions in safety-critical applications, especially under domain drift.
method Developed a general bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, introducing the Bregman Information as the variance term.
result The decomposition provides novel formulations for different predictive tasks, including classification and model ensembles.

Method reduces model bias in water temperature prediction using physics-guided GNNs.

problem Model bias in traditional physics-based models across different income and education levels.
method Physics-guided GNNs with refined neighbor selection and weights.
result Preserves equitable performance across different sensitive groups in the Delaware River Basin.

Proposes tests to control confounding bias in predictive models.

problem Lack of non-parametric tests for confounding bias in predictive modeling.
method Partial and full confounder tests for probing null hypotheses of unconfounded and fully confounded models.
result Reveals previously unreported or hard-to-correct confounders in machine learning models.

Study shows different trajectory prediction models generalize better under OoD conditions.

problem Comparing trajectory prediction models' robustness across different datasets.
method Training models on Argoverse 2 and testing on Waymo Open Motion, and vice versa, with various augmentation strategies.
result Smallest model with highest inductive bias performs best in OoD generalization.

New causal models perform poorly when evaluated on biased training sets.

problem Sample selection bias affects the evaluation of causal models' prediction performance.
method Re-evaluated prediction performance of causal models on a genetic perturbation data set, proposing a less-biased evaluation set.
result Causal models have similar or worse performance when evaluated on a less-biased set compared to standard association-based estimators.

We detect lookahead bias in LLM forecasts using a novel statistical method.

problem Detecting lookahead bias in LLM-generated economic forecasts.
method Developed a statistical procedure using date-only recall queries and estimated Lookahead Propensity (LAP).
result LLM forecasts are contaminated with lookahead bias, as indicated by a positive interaction between LAP and the forecast in accuracy regressions.

Study proposes a multi-agent framework to mitigate bias in sentiment analysis.

problem Bias in sentiment analysis models.
method Integrates multiple LLMs, incorporates dialogue sessions, and uses probabilistic prediction.
result KCS+IBC reduces entropy and increases variance, suggesting improved balance between aggregation and diversity.

Framework reduces simplicity bias in NNs, improving OOD generalization and robustness.

problem Simplicity bias in deep learning models leads to biased predictions and poor OOD generalization.
method Proposes a framework that regularizes conditional mutual information to encourage use of diverse features.
result Demonstrates effectiveness in various settings, enhancing OOD generalization and robustness.

Study data biases to predict algorithmic discrimination, developing a Data Bias Profile.

problem Data biases contribute to algorithmic discrimination, but their impact is understudied.
method Analyzed three common data biases across various datasets and models, developing a Data Bias Profile.
result Combination of proxies and label bias can lead to more significant discrimination than underrepresentation alone.

ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the un…

2019-11-24abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper examines fairness and arbitrariness in bias mitigation methods.

problem Understanding how different bias mitigation strategies affect individual predictions and whether they introduce arbitrariness.
method FRAME framework to evaluate bias mitigation through five dimensions: Impact Size, Change Direction, Decision Rates, Affected Subpopulations, and Neglected Subpopulations.
result Significant differences in the behaviors of debiasing methods were exhibited, highlighting the limitations of current fairness criteria and the inherent arbitrariness in the debiasing process.

AMA-LSTM improves stock volatility prediction using adversarial training.

problem Predicting stock volatility from financial audio data is challenging due to stochasticity and bias.
method Adversarial training to generate perturbations that simulate stochasticity and bias.
result AMA-LSTM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting stock volatility.

The paper addresses selection bias in conformal prediction for focal units.

problem Selection bias in marginally valid conformal prediction intervals for focal units.
method A general framework for constructing selection-conditional coverage prediction sets.
result Efficient methods for various selection rules with exact finite-sample coverage.