Bayesian model for multi-environment prediction with latent variable changes.
problem Prediction in environments with changing latent variable distributions.
method Bayesian model with empirical Bayes prior and amortized variational algorithm.
result Method outperforms previous approaches in new environments.
New algorithm improves model generalization in structured biomedical domains.
problem Improving model generalization in structured biomedical domains.
method Proposes a new regret minimization (RGM) algorithm and its structured extension for better performance in diverse environments.
result Significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art baselines on molecular property prediction, protein homology, and stability prediction.
Modular method predicts motion in crowded scenes using learned environment models.
problem Predicting motion in dynamic, crowded environments.
method Modular model of spatial and dynamic aspects, unsupervised adaptation to new tasks.
result Comparable performance to state-of-the-art, transferable across tasks.
Bayesian Invariant Prediction models stable features from multi-environment data.
problem Analyzing stable features across multiple environments for better prediction and understanding.
method Developed Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP) model that encodes invariant feature indices as latent variables and infers them via posterior inference.
result BIP and its variational approximation (VI-BIP) outperform existing methods in accuracy and scalability for invariant prediction.
Predictive sampling improves on Thompson sampling for non-stationary bandit environments.
problem Thompson sampling fails in non-stationary bandit environments.
method Proposes predictive sampling, which deprioritizes actions based on information loss rate.
result Predictive sampling outperforms Thompson sampling in all tested non-stationary environments.
New methods improve prediction intervals across multiple environments.
problem Valid confidence intervals and sets in multi-environment prediction.
method Extended jackknife and split-conformal methods, with resizing for problem difficulty.
result Distribution-free coverage achieved in non-traditional data scenarios.
In Business Intelligence, accurate predictive modeling is the key for providing adaptive decisions. We studied predictive modeling problems in this research which was motivated by real-world cases that Microsoft data scientists encountered while dealing with e-commerce transaction fraud control decisions using transact…
A framework for learning disentangled representations of symmetric environments.
problem Discovering and modelling the underlying structure of environments.
method Group representation theory for disentangled representations of dynamical environments.
result Our method enables accurate long-horizon predictions and correlates with disentanglement quality.
ATLAS separates invariant and transferable latent factors across diverse environments.
problem Transfer learning and robust prediction in heterogeneous environments.
method ATLAS leverages invariance principle to disentangle latent factors and uses auxiliary labels for robust prediction.
result Near-oracle performance and robust transferable prediction in new environments.
Infinite hierarchical contrastive clustering identifies personal environments linked to health outcomes.
problem Identifying meaningful relationships between environmental features and health outcomes on an individual level.
method Contrastive clustering framework with stick-breaking prior and participant-specific prediction loss.
result Model effectively identifies distinct personal environments and groups them into meaningful types linked to health outcomes.
Estimator improves prediction with missing data in multi-environment settings.
problem Handling missing data in multi-environment settings for robust prediction.
method Derive an estimator from invariance objective under missing outcomes.
result The estimator achieves lower prediction error despite using a biased imputation model.
Optimization algorithm CoCo improves causal inference from diverse data.
problem Identifying true causal relationships from data with spurious associations.
method CoCo optimizes for causal inference using environments with invariant causal relationships.
result CoCo provides more accurate causal estimates and predictions.
This paper evaluates conformal prediction for aerial image classification in challenging environments.
problem Challenging aerial image classification in data-scarce, unconstrained environments.
method Conformal prediction applied to pretrained models (MobileNet, DenseNet, ResNet) with limited labeled data.
result Conformal prediction can provide valuable uncertainty estimates even with small labeled samples.
Universal online optimization for dynamic environments using uniclass prediction.
problem Online optimization in changing environments with dynamic regret.
method Reduces dynamic online optimization to uniclass prediction problem, allowing control over dynamic regret bounds.
result First paper with state-of-the-art dynamic regret guarantees for general convex cost functions.
RODMAN improves ML-based disk failure prediction accuracy in cloud environments.
problem Imperfect data quality in real-world cloud environments degrades ML-based disk failure prediction accuracy.
method RODMAN uses three data preprocessing techniques: failure-type filtering, spline-based data filling, and automated pre-failure backtracking.
result RODMAN significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to no preprocessing.
New method learns robust representations by modeling environment variation.
problem Learning invariant representations across varying environments.
method Explicitly modeling variation across environments and marginalizing it out.
result Proposed method outperforms invariant-learning methods in various settings.
Reinforcement learning is concerned with identifying reward-maximizing behaviour policies in environments that are initially unknown. State-of-the-art reinforcement learning approaches, such as deep Q-networks, are model-free and learn to act effectively across a wide range of environments such as Atari games, but requ…
We describe an optimal adversarial attack formulation against autoregressive time series forecast using Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR). In this threat model, the environment evolves according to a dynamical system; an autoregressive model observes the current environment state and predicts its future values; an attac…
BYOL-Explore learns to explore visually-rich environments by predicting world dynamics.
problem Exploration in visually complex environments.
method Optimizes a single prediction loss in latent space to learn world representation, dynamics, and exploration policy.
result Achieves superhuman performance on Atari games with simpler design.
Framework tackles OOD challenges in molecule property prediction by modeling environments.
problem Challenges in modeling OOD samples for molecule property prediction.
method Soft causal learning framework incorporating chemistry theories and cross-attention mechanisms.
result Demonstrates well generalization ability on seven datasets.
GALA framework learns invariant graph representations via environment augmentation with minimal assumptions.
problem Learning invariant graph representations from different environments without additional assumptions.
method Developed GALA framework with minimal assumptions of variation sufficiency and consistency. Uses an assistant model to differentiate graph environment changes.
result Extracting maximally invariant subgraphs to proxy predictions identifies underlying invariant subgraphs for successful out-of-distribution generalization.
While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease labels there can be differences (e.g. "fever" may mean something different repor…
When agents interact with a complex environment, they must form and maintain beliefs about the relevant aspects of that environment. We propose a way to efficiently train expressive generative models in complex environments. We show that a predictive algorithm with an expressive generative model can form stable belief-…
Paper proposes a hybrid model for financial time series prediction using sentiment analysis.
problem Challenges in forecasting in non-stationary, complex environments with heterogeneous data.
method Hybrid model combining GANs with NLP-based sentiment analysis.
result Hybrid model enhances robustness in non-stationary environments.
Stable health predictions need deconfounding test set features.
problem Stability of predictions in health machine learning is compromised by selection biases.
method Deconfounding the test set features improves prediction stability across different environments.
result Improved stability achieved by deconfounding test set features.
Deep learning predicts vehicle behavior for safer autonomous driving.
problem Enhance autonomous vehicles' hazard awareness in complex environments.
method Review of deep learning-based approaches for vehicle behaviour prediction.
result Deep learning outperforms conventional methods in complex scenarios.
Proposes method to learn state abstractions that generalize across environments.
problem Learning abstractions that generalize in block MDPs.
method Invariant causal prediction to learn model-irrelevant state abstractions (MISA).
result Proves high probability of outputting a state abstraction corresponding to causal feature set for return.
New model predicts dynamic volatility in uncertain financial markets.
problem Predicting dynamic volatility in financial markets with uncertainty.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BN-S) model considering delay and fuzziness.
result Effective prediction of dynamic volatility with improved performance.
New algorithms adaptively calibrate predictions in non-stationary environments, matching optimal rates.
problem Designing online prediction algorithms that adapt to varying levels of non-stationarity.
method Epoch-based scheduling and non-uniform partitioning of the prediction space.
result Achieves adaptive calibration guarantees under multiple measures with optimal rates.
Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.
problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.
The study questions the necessity of accurate models in MBRL.
problem The difficulty of achieving and utilizing accurate models in complex or changing environments.
method Introduces a meta-learning algorithm focused on model usefulness rather than accuracy.
result Meta-learning models enable faster learning than accurate models built with domain-specific knowledge.
This work investigates how a naive agent can acquire its own body image in a self-supervised way, based on the predictability of its sensorimotor experience. Our working hypothesis is that, due to its temporal stability, an agent's body produces more consistent sensory experiences than the environment, which exhibits a…
Unsupervised representation learning has succeeded with excellent results in many applications. It is an especially powerful tool to learn a good representation of environments with partial or noisy observations. In partially observable domains it is important for the representation to encode a belief state, a sufficie…
When faced with the problem of learning a model of a high-dimensional environment, a common approach is to limit the model to make only a restricted set of predictions, thereby simplifying the learning problem. These partial models may be directly useful for making decisions or may be combined together to form a more c…
WayDCM predicts trajectories considering long-term goals, improving accuracy.
problem Predicting future trajectories of dynamic agents in complex environments.
method WayDCM combines DCM and NN to predict intermediate goals and trajectories, considering long-term goals.
result WayDCM outperforms previous methods on the Waymo Open dataset.
We study the variance of the REINFORCE policy gradient estimator in environments with continuous state and action spaces, linear dynamics, quadratic cost, and Gaussian noise. These simple environments allow us to derive bounds on the estimator variance in terms of the environment and noise parameters. We compare the pr…
Audit financial machine learning workflows to detect spurious predictability.
problem Spurious predictability in financial machine learning models.
method Falsification audit testing predictive workflows against synthetic environments.
result Many apparent financial predictions are artifacts, not genuine.
New approach predicts under latent shifts using high-dimensional images.
problem Prediction under latent subgroup shifts with high-dimensional observations.
method Recognition-parametrised model (RPM) for identifying causal latent structure.
result Successfully adapts predictions for high-dimensional image data.
Neural Laplace Control tackles offline RL for continuous-time delayed systems with irregular observations.
problem Offline reinforcement learning problems involving continuous-time environments with delays and irregular observations.
method Combines a Neural Laplace dynamics model with a model predictive control (MPC) planner.
result Achieves near expert policy performance on continuous-time delayed environments.
In data stream mining, predictive models typically suffer drops in predictive performance due to concept drift. As enough data representing the new concept must be collected for the new concept to be well learnt, the predictive performance of existing models usually takes some time to recover from concept drift. To spe…
Unified framework for predicting data changes influenced by predictions.
problem Complex feedback loops in environments where predictions alter data distributions.
method Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) and two-step plug-in estimator integrating RePPI and Importance Sampling.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and robustness under mild misspecification.
AutoDIME automates design of multi-agent environments for RL.
problem Designing multi-agent environments for reinforcement learning is challenging.
method Developed intrinsic teacher rewards for multi-agent settings and evaluated them in various tasks.
result Value disagreement was found to be most consistent and effective across tasks.
Predicting movement of objects while the action of learning agent interacts with the dynamics of the scene still remains a key challenge in robotics. We propose a multi-layer Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) autoendocer network that predicts future frames for a robot navigating in a dynamic environment with moving obstacl…
Reinforcement learning algorithms rely on carefully engineering environment rewards that are extrinsic to the agent. However, annotating each environment with hand-designed, dense rewards is not scalable, motivating the need for developing reward functions that are intrinsic to the agent. Curiosity is a type of intrins…
New method uses hindsight to make exploration robust in stochastic environments.
problem Exploration in sparse-reward or reward-free environments, especially in stochastic settings.
method Learn representations of the future that capture unpredictable aspects, using them to predict and reward only the predictable parts of the world.
result Improves exploration in Atari games and Montezuma's Revenge, robust to stochasticity.
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has been successfully applied to a variety of game-like environments. However, the application of deep RL to visual navigation with realistic environments is a challenging task. We propose a novel learning architecture capable of navigating an agent, e.g. a mobile robot, to a target giv…
Infants are experts at playing, with an amazing ability to generate novel structured behaviors in unstructured environments that lack clear extrinsic reward signals. We seek to mathematically formalize these abilities using a neural network that implements curiosity-driven intrinsic motivation. Using a simple but ecolo…
Due to the lack of information such as the space environment condition and resident space objects' (RSOs') body characteristics, current orbit predictions that are solely grounded on physics-based models may fail to achieve required accuracy for collision avoidance and have led to satellite collisions already. This pap…