Rule-based classifiers quantify uncertainty using Bernoulli random variables.
problem Quantifying the uncertainty of precision estimates for rule-based text classifiers.
method Treat partitions of sub-strings as Bernoulli random variables, compare means using statistical tests, and combine classifiers using Dempster-Shafer theory.
result The approach can be used to combine binary classifiers into a multi-label classifier.
Proposes PQ, a more precise Bayesian quantifier for prevalence estimation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in prevalence estimation.
method Bayesian quantification methods, focusing on precision and coverage.
result PQ provides more precise and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification.
Study compares deterministic and probabilistic ML for precise AM component dimensions.
problem Accurately estimate dimensions of additively manufactured parts with variability.
method Employed models integrating continuous and categorical factors, tested deterministic and probabilistic ML methods.
result Gaussian Process Regression and Bayesian Neural Networks provide strong predictive performance and uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve precision cosmology from simulations.
problem Extracting precise cosmological parameters from complex simulations.
method Using Bayesian Neural Networks on The Quijote simulations.
result Demonstrates BNNs' ability to estimate associated uncertainties and complex output distributions.
Paper explores low-precision SGLD for neural networks, reducing costs without sacrificing performance.
problem Infeasibility of low-precision sampling in large-scale scenarios.
method Developed low-precision SGLD with quantization function and full-precision gradient accumulators.
result Low-precision SGLD achieves comparable performance to full-precision SGLD with only 8 bits.
Bayesian Neural Networks show unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty with large models and little data.
problem Unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Experiments with varying model size and training data size.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses in the presence of large models and sometimes little data.
Study improves LLMs for PPI analysis by addressing uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in LLM predictions for PPIs.
method Fine-tuned LLaMA-3 and BioMedGPT models, LoRA ensembles, Bayesian LoRA for UQ.
result Competitive PPI identification performance across diverse disease contexts.
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
Unified deep framework for personalized recommendations with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in user preferences in recommendation systems.
method Gaussian embeddings, Monte-Carlo sampling, convolutional neural networks.
result Superior performance in recommendation accuracy compared to state-of-the-art models.
Two strategies extend multi-label chaining for imprecise probability estimates.
problem Handling imprecise probability estimates in multi-label classification.
method Adapting multi-label chaining to use convex sets of distributions (credal sets).
result Adapted approaches produce relevant cautiousness on hard-to-predict instances.
A method to select important experts for Gaussian processes to balance computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification in Gaussian processes for big data.
method Using graphical models to select important experts and aggregate their predictions while ensuring uncertainty quantification.
result Substantially reduces computational cost of aggregating dependent experts while ensuring calibrated uncertainty quantification.
Knowledge bases (KBs) are the backbone of many ubiquitous applications and are thus required to exhibit high precision. However, for KBs that store subjective attributes of entities, e.g., whether a movie is "kid friendly", simply estimating precision is complicated by the inherent ambiguity in measuring subjective phe…
Wasserstein active regression improves estimation precision.
problem Improving regression model accuracy through active learning.
method Combines Wasserstein distance and GroupSort Neural Networks for uncertainty quantification.
result Wasserstein active regression often provides more precise estimations.
Study decomposes uncertainty in HK-distribution parameter estimation for QUS.
problem Uncertainty in HK-distribution parameter estimation for quantitative ultrasound.
method Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) for parameter estimation and uncertainty decomposition.
result Decomposes total predictive uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components.
Paper introduces imprecise logistic regression for handling uncertain data.
problem Uncertainties in data prevent traditional logistic regression from being applied effectively.
method Develops imprecise logistic regression model using intervals of possible values.
result Clearly expresses epistemic uncertainty in predictions.
Probabilistic embeddings improve speaker diarization accuracy.
problem Improving speaker diarization accuracy using embeddings.
method Extracting x-vectors and precision matrices from speech segments, interfacing with PLDA model, applying agglomerative clustering, joint training of PLDA and extractor.
result Joint training of PLDA and probabilistic x-vector extractor yields accuracy gains.
Embeddings in machine learning are low-dimensional representations of complex input patterns, with the property that simple geometric operations like Euclidean distances and dot products can be used for classification and comparison tasks. The proposed meta-embeddings are special embeddings that live in more general in…
Bayesian neural networks improve uncertainty calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Bayesian neural networks struggle with uncertainty calibration and high-dimensional geometry.
method Model uncertainty only in weight directions using a von Mises-Fisher posterior on the unit sphere, deriving a compact KL term.
result A lightweight, dimension-aware variational unit improves calibration without sacrificing accuracy.
This paper examines sources of uncertainty in machine learning from a statistical perspective.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning models.
method A conceptual, basic science approach examining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
result Sources of uncertainty are diverse and cannot always be decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic.
Bayesian method learns graph structures from Gaussian data efficiently.
problem Scalability issue in Bayesian Gaussian graphical model inference.
method Marginal pseudo-likelihood, birth-death and reversible jump MCMC algorithms.
result Efficient graph structure learning for large graphs with over 1,000 nodes.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
problem Analyzing uncertainty in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
method Theoretical guarantees and limitations for pointwise credible sets are derived for a rescaled Brownian motion prior with a sparse variational Gaussian process method.
result Theoretical characterization of asymptotic frequentist coverage for credible sets, distinguishing conservative and overconfident cases.
CLAPS improves conformal regression by adaptively scaling interval widths based on last-layer Laplace uncertainty.
problem Lack of adaptive interval width scaling in conformal regression for heterogeneous inputs.
method CLAPS uses heteroscedastic last-layer Laplace uncertainty to adaptively scale interval widths, combining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result CLAPS provides competitive interval efficiency with nominal-level coverage, reducing to aleatoric scaling as epistemic uncertainty decreases.
Model quantifies uncertainty's impact on European option prices.
problem Uncertainty in market volatility risk affects option pricing.
method Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman framework and finite element method.
result Dependence of Delta on uncertainty is nonlinear and varied.
The paper integrates AI and expert knowledge to optimize radiotherapy decisions.
problem Optimizing radiation dose planning considering patient-specific information.
method Integrating Gaussian process models with deep neural networks to quantify uncertainty.
result Improves AI model performance and guides clinical decision making.
Novel framework for uncertainty quantification in metric spaces.
problem Uncertainty quantification in regression models with metric responses.
method Developed algorithms for large datasets, agnostic to predictive models, with asymptotic and non-asymptotic guarantees.
result Asymptotic and non-asymptotic guarantees for special cases, demonstrated in clinical applications.
New method quantifies classifier uncertainty, revealing large variability in performance metrics.
problem Uncertainty in classifier performance metrics due to small data sets.
method Probability model of the confusion matrix to quantify uncertainty.
result Large uncertainties in classification performance metrics can lead to misleading conclusions.
Unified framework for causal inference with reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Causal inference under unobserved confounding with unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning.
result Strong predictive performance and informative uncertainty quantification.
Method combines LD and Fermat Distance for neural network uncertainty.
problem Measuring uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Statistical Depth (LD) combined with Fermat Distance.
result Effective uncertainty estimation without impacting original model performance.
New framework models epistemic uncertainty in GNNs using random sets.
problem Uncertainty in graph neural network predictions.
method Introduces a belief function (random set) approach to model epistemic uncertainty in GNNs.
result Demonstrates superior uncertainty quantification on various graph datasets.
GP model calibration improves optimization algorithm performance.
problem GP model uncertainty calibration issues degrade optimization performance.
method Kernel validation procedure to calibrate GP predictions.
result Proper calibration enhances optimization algorithm convergence.
A new method optimizes complex engineering designs under uncertainty efficiently.
problem Optimizing large, uncertain engineering designs with limited resources.
method Multi-level informed optimization via decomposed Kriging.
result Significantly faster and more accurate optimization compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Precise estimation of uncertainty in predictions for AI systems is a critical factor in ensuring trust and safety. Deep neural networks trained with a conventional method are prone to over-confident predictions. In contrast to Bayesian neural networks that learn approximate distributions on weights to infer prediction …
Study trade-offs between statistical and computational efficiency in variational inference.
problem Optimizing statistical accuracy vs. computational efficiency in Bayesian inference.
method Case study on Gaussian inferential models with diagonal plus low-rank precision matrices, analyzing Bayesian posterior inference and frequentist uncertainty quantification errors.
result Lower-rank models reduce variance and accelerate convergence but increase posterior inference error.
Recent research has considered the stochastic thermodynamics of multiple interacting systems, representing the overall system as a Bayes net. I derive fluctuation theorems governing the entropy production (EP)of arbitrary sets of the systems in such a Bayes net. I also derive ``conditional'' fluctuation theorems, gover…
Quantized BNNs maintain uncertainty estimation quality despite reduced precision.
problem Reduced precision in BNNs due to quantization.
method Quantized BNNs with 32-bit weights and activations compressed to 16-bit integers.
result Uniform quantization does not significantly degrade uncertainty estimation quality.
This paper improves low-precision sampling using SGHMC for deep learning models.
problem Enhancing training efficiency of deep neural networks with low-precision training.
method Investigates low-precision sampling via Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) for both log-concave and non-log-concave distributions.
result Low-precision SGHMC achieves quadratic improvement in error compared to SGLD for non-log-concave distributions.
This work connects conformal prediction to information theory for uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Information theory applied to conformal prediction.
result Proven ways to upper bound intrinsic uncertainty using information theory.
Bayesian optimization reduces hyperparameter tuning cost for stochastic models.
problem Hyperparameter tuning under uncertainty in noisy function evaluations.
method Bayesian optimization framework for scale parameter in stochastic models, using statistical surrogate and closed-form optimizer.
result Significant reduction in computational cost (40 times fewer data points, 40-fold reduction in cost).
Generative Score Inference improves uncertainty quantification for multimodal data.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in multimodal learning tasks.
method Generative Score Inference (GSI) uses synthetic samples to approximate conditional score distributions.
result GSI achieves state-of-the-art performance in hallucination detection and image captioning uncertainty estimation.
A new method selects inducing points to optimize high-throughput Bayesian optimisation.
problem Current inducing point selection methods sacrifice high-fidelity modeling of promising regions.
method Information-theoretic criterion to select inducing points maximizing global and maximum value uncertainties.
result Surrogate models support high-precision high-throughput Bayesian optimisation.
Testing under what conditions the product satisfies the desired properties is a fundamental problem in manufacturing industry. If the condition and the property are respectively regarded as the input and the output of a black-box function, this task can be interpreted as the problem called Level Set Estimation (LSE) --…
Paper tackles uncertainty in GNNs for graph data.
problem Uncertainty in GNNs' predictions for graph data.
method CF-T2NN, tensor decomposition, topological learning.
result CF-T2NN improves reliability and interpretability of GNN outcomes.
BayesBoost combines boosting and Bayesian methods for linear mixed models, improving uncertainty estimation and variable selection.
problem Lack of straightforward uncertainty estimation for parameters in high-dimensional linear mixed models.
method BayesBoost: Combines boosting and Bayesian inference for linear mixed models.
result Improves uncertainty estimation and variable selection in linear mixed models.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) provide state-of-the-art results for a multitude of applications, but the approaches using DNNs for multimodal audiovisual applications do not consider predictive uncertainty associated with individual modalities. Bayesian deep learning methods provide principled confidence and quantify pred…
This study improves uncertainty quantification in seismic inversion.
problem Uncertainty in seismic inversion due to limited data and model diversity.
method Integrates ensemble methods with importance sampling.
result More accurate uncertainty quantification in velocity models.
Bayesian method for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
problem Estimating uncertainties in autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
method Recursive Bayesian estimation via message passing in a factor graph.
result Produces full posterior distributions for autoregressive coefficients and noise precision.
With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that attaches an explicit uncertainty statement to the probabilities of classification u…
Probabilistic method identifies Purkinje network from ECG data.
problem Challenging task of identifying Purkinje conduction system in heart.
method Bayesian optimization and approximate Bayesian computation for probabilistic identification.
result Generates a population of plausible Purkinje networks fitting ECG within tolerance.