A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.
New method evaluates AI stock prediction systems based on decision-making processes.
DAIS minimizes symmetrized KL divergence between initial and target distributions.
Study predicts stock price direction on earnings announcement days using multi-modal deep learning.
We considered observational data available from the MIMIC-III open-access ICU database and collected within a study period between year 2002 up to 2011. If a patient had multiple admissions to the ICU during the 30 days before death, only the first stay was analyzed, leading to a final set of 6,436 unique ICU admission…
Urban traffic systems worldwide are suffering from severe traffic safety problems. Traffic safety is affected by many complex factors, and heavily related to all drivers' behaviors involved in traffic system. Drivers with aggressive driving behaviors increase the risk of traffic accidents. In order to manage the safety…
Study finds CRPS learning doesn't improve day-ahead bidding profits despite better accuracy.
Turtle Score analyzes developer similarity to match high-performing candidates.
The main purpose of this work is to examine the behavior of the implied volatility smiles around jumps, contributing to the literature with a high-frequency analysis of the smile dynamics based on intra-day option data. From our high-frequency SPX S\&P500 index option dataset, we utilize the first three principal compo…
Predict stock trends using news sentiment and technical indicators in Spark.
Over the past decades, both critical care and cancer care have improved substantially. Due to increased cancer-specific survival, we hypothesized that both the number of cancer patients admitted to the ICU and overall survival have increased since the millennium change. MIMIC-III, a freely accessible critical care data…
ContraSim learns financial headline similarities for market forecasting.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication after a surgery which is associated with morbidity and mortality. The majority of existing perioperative AKI risk score prediction models are limited in their generalizability and do not fully utilize the physiological intraoperative time-series data. Thus,…
New online method for multivariate probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
Baseline injury categorization is important to traumatic brain injury (TBI) research and treatment. Current categorization is dominated by symptom-based scores that insufficiently capture injury heterogeneity. In this work, we apply unsupervised clustering to identify novel TBI phenotypes. Our approach uses a generaliz…
A problem faced by many instructors is that of designing exams that accurately assess the abilities of the students. Typically these exams are prepared several days in advance, and generic question scores are used based on rough approximation of the question difficulty and length. For example, for a recent class taught…
Study improves document processing in banking with multimodal analytics.
We point out a stunning time asymmetry in the short time cross correlations between intra-day and overnight volatilities (absolute values of log-returns of stock prices). While overnight volatility is significantly (and positively) correlated with the intra-day volatility during the \textit{following} day (allowing thu…
The paper presents algorithms for diagnosing Pathological Myopia and detecting retinal structures.
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intra-day contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intra-day returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intra-day returns affect equally the future intra-day and overnight volatilitie…
Paper improves probabilistic forecasts of electricity prices.
New study finds day-of-the-week effects in stock market returns using multifractal analysis.
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.
The analysis of the intraday dynamics of correlations among high-frequency returns is challenging due to the presence of asynchronous trading and market microstructure noise. Both effects may lead to significant data reduction and may severely underestimate correlations if traditional methods for low-frequency data are…
Study examines crypto-backed stable derivatives in DeFi, focusing on DAI.
This paper questions some current ideas about the practice of specific capital market operations - the so-called day trading operations. The text advanced from theoretical propositions to a detailed analysis of the study entitled "Is it possible to live by day-trading?" (CHAGUE and GIOVANNETTI, 2019), to which it offer…
U-Cast simplifies AI weather forecasting with a standard U-Net and efficient training.
Paper models and forecasts intra-day electricity price spreads.
Mamba outperforms Reformer in minute-level stock prediction using LLM sentiment scores.
We select the stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We study the ensemble return distribution for each trading day and we find that the symmetry properties of the ensem…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange…
Study analyzes Airbnb lead-time distributions for Nights Booked and Gross Booking Value, finding divergent shapes and tail behavior.
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time intervals, like months instead of days.
Study provides long-term EMG data for multi-day biometric authentication.
RL-Exec uses reinforcement learning to optimize BTC-USD liquidation, outperforming traditional methods.
Transformer model forecasts electricity price spread for virtual bidding.
Network analysis improves stock return forecasting.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
In this paper we perform a statistical analysis over the returns and relative prices of the CAC and the S\&P with the purpose of analyzing the intra-day seasonalities of single and cross-sectional stock dynamics. In order to do that, we characterized the dynamics of a stock (or a set of stocks) by the evolut…
The paper simplifies electricity market curves with less parameters.
Although variational autoencoders (VAEs) represent a widely influential deep generative model, many aspects of the underlying energy function remain poorly understood. In particular, it is commonly believed that Gaussian encoder/decoder assumptions reduce the effectiveness of VAEs in generating realistic samples. In th…
Paper predicts cryptocurrency bull and bear phases using Bitcoin's moving averages.
Chemical structure elucidation is a serious bottleneck in analytical chemistry today. We address the problem of identifying an unknown chemical threat given its mass spectrum and its chemical formula, a task which might take well trained chemists several days to complete. Given a chemical formula, there could be over a…
Heart failure hospitalization is a severe burden on healthcare. How to predict and therefore prevent readmission has been a significant challenge in outcomes research. To address this, we propose a deep learning approach to predict readmission from clinical notes. Unlike conventional methods that use structured data fo…
This paper examines the intra-day seasonality of transacted limit and market orders in the DEM/USD foreign exchange market. Empirical analysis of completed transactions data based on the Dealing 2000-2 electronic inter-dealer broking system indicates significant evidence of intraday seasonality in returns and return vo…
Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.