Bayesian method models multivalued power data from wind farms.
problem Accurate modeling of power curves with multivalued relationships.
method Overlapping mixture of probabilistic regression models.
result Model accurately represents practical power data.
Paper examines power consumption in neural networks using various activation functions.
problem Power consumption in machine learning models.
method Examines power consumption for different activation functions.
result Substantial differences in power consumption exist between activation functions.
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…
Power laws detected in financial data, modeled with random multipliers.
problem Detecting power laws in financial data.
method Investigated data from financial instruments, proposed a model based on sums of Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions with random multipliers.
result Detected power laws with various exponents in financial data, proposed a universal model.
A robust model handles up to 25% of outliers in time-series data for power flow calculations.
problem Handling outliers in time-series data for accurate power flow calculations.
method Robust data-driven process model with Schweppe-type generalized maximum likelihood estimator and projection statistics for outlier weighting.
result The model can handle up to 25% of outliers in the training data set.
We introduce the stochastic multiplicative point process modelling trading activity of financial markets. Such a model system exhibits power-law spectral density S(f) ~ 1/f**beta, scaled as power of frequency for various values of beta between 0.5 and 2. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law autoco…
Proposes a regularization approach to model German power derivative market, identifying significant risk spillovers.
problem Large portfolio of German power derivative contracts, identifying significant risk spillovers.
method Combines high-dimensional variable selection with dynamic network analysis.
result Identifies significant risk contributors and interdependencies between contracts, especially spot contracts.
Survey on GNNs' power and limitations.
problem Theoretical limitations of GNNs.
method Comprehensive overview of GNNs and their variants.
result Provably powerful variants of GNNs.
Flexible GP model improves wind power prediction accuracy.
problem Accurate probabilistic prediction of wind power for grid stability.
method Heteroscedastic non-stationary Gaussian process with generalised spectral mixture kernel.
result The proposed model outperforms conventional GP models in wind power prediction.
Paper proposes dense average network for improved power load forecasting.
problem Improving power load forecasting accuracy to save millions for the power industry.
method Introduces dense average connection and constructs dense average network for power load forecasting.
result Proposed model outperforms existing methods on public datasets.
Deep learning models, especially CNNs, can predict radio frequency power faster than traditional methods.
problem Accurate radio frequency power prediction for optimal transmitter location.
method Empirical analysis of deep learning models including CNNs and UNET variations for power prediction.
result Deep learning models, particularly CNNs, are effective and generalize well to new regions for power prediction.
Study shows limits of certain normalizing flows in higher dimensions.
problem Understanding the representation power of normalizing flows in different dimensions.
method Rigorously established bounds on expressive power of basic normalizing flows.
result Limited representation power in higher dimensions, especially with moderate depth.
MLM models match or exceed RN in generating wind power time series without location info.
problem Generating accurate long-term wind power time series without location information.
method Applied neural networks to MERRA2 wind speed data with and without location info.
result MLM models produce time series of equal or better quality than RN.
Study uses ANFIS to assess wind power under climate change.
problem Tackles climate change impact on wind power potential.
method Employed ANFIS to match climate model data with reference data.
result Real wind power potential lower than projected.
Study builds dataset and benchmarks ML models for accurate solar and wind power forecasting in France.
problem Accurate prediction of non-dispatchable renewable energy sources for grid stability and price prediction.
method Comprehensive methodology using machine learning models trained with spatially explicit weather data and production site capacity.
result Neural networks outperform traditional models in forecasting solar and wind power production in France.
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
problem Uncertainty in renewable energy forecasting for power systems.
method Normalizing flows for direct learning of multivariate stochastic distributions.
result Normalizing flows outperform other deep learning models in probabilistic forecasting.
It is now widely accepted that, to model the dynamics of daily financial returns, volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect. We derive the asymptotic behaviour of the squared residuals autocovariances for the class of asymmetric power GARCH model when the power is unknown and is jointly estima…
GP CC-OPF solves uncertain power grid optimization with Gaussian Process.
problem Uncertainty in power grid operations due to high renewables integration.
method Data-driven Gaussian Process regression for solving non-convex CC-OPF problem.
result Effective economic dispatch optimization in uncertain power grids.
Signed graphs encode positive (attractive) and negative (repulsive) relations between nodes. We extend spectral clustering to signed graphs via the one-parameter family of Signed Power Mean Laplacians, defined as the matrix power mean of normalized standard and signless Laplacians of positive and negative edges. We pro…
Paper refutes conjecture on tensor power iteration convergence in overcomplete models.
problem Understanding convergence of tensor power iteration in overcomplete random tensors.
method Analysis of tensor power iteration dynamics from random initialization.
result Polynomially many steps are necessary for convergence, refutes logarithmic conjecture.
Study short-term wind power and speed predictions using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term wind power and speed predictions for energy systems.
method Combining numerical weather prediction models with local observations, using machine learning for variable selection and forecasting.
result Improved wind power and speed predictions for 4-hour ahead using machine learning.
New method minimizes robust density power-based divergences for general parametric densities.
problem Computational complexity of minimizing DPD for general parametric densities.
method Stochastic approach to minimize DPD for general parametric density models.
result Proposed method can be applied to minimize other density power-based γ-divergences.
We use data on wealth of the richest persons taken from the "rich lists" provided by business magazines like Forbes to verify if upper tails of wealth distributions follow, as often claimed, a power-law behaviour. The data sets used cover the world's richest persons over 1996-2012, the richest Americans over 1988-2012,…
This paper develops an ensemble learning-based linearization approach for power flow, which differs from the network-parameter based direct current (DC) power flow or other extended versions of linearization. As a novel data-driven linearization through data mining, it firstly applies the polynomial regression (PR) as …
Paper improves power of conditional randomization tests.
problem Improving power of conditional randomization tests.
method Introducing a new cost function to maximize test statistic power.
result Consistently increases the number of correct discoveries.
Power system studies require the topological structures of real-world power networks; however, such data is confidential due to important security concerns. Thus, power grid synthesis (PGS), i.e., creating realistic power grids that imitate actual power networks, has gained significant attention. In this letter, we cas…
The paper proves entropy power properties on Riemannian manifolds and Ricci flows.
problem Entropy power on Riemannian manifolds and Ricci flows.
method Proving concavity and convexity of Shannon entropy power for heat and conjugate heat equations on Riemannian manifolds and Ricci flows.
result Entropy power rigidity models on Einstein or quasi Einstein manifolds and shrinking Ricci solitons.
This research simplifies computation of feature attribution methods under certain conditions.
problem Computational complexity of feature attribution methods, especially power indices.
method Identifying conditions for polynomial computation and introducing new indices.
result Conditions for efficient computation of feature attribution methods are identified.
Develops a simple model to understand learning curves for arbitrary power laws.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of scaling laws in machine learning.
method Analyzes a toy model to determine if learning curves are universal or depend on data distribution.
result Determines that learning curves can exhibit n−β for arbitrary power β>0. Power of network tests degrades when vertices are misaligned.
problem Power loss in network hypothesis testing due to vertex shuffling.
method Theoretical analysis and simulations of Frobenius norm differences in random dot product and stochastic block models.
result Shuffling vertices can significantly reduce the power of network tests.
Paper proves SVV model reproduces power-law skew in implied volatilities.
problem Reproducing power-law behavior in implied volatility skew.
method Analytical proof using Malliavin calculus and Volterra kernel selection.
result SVV model reproduces power-law skew under correct kernel choice.
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
problem Impact of natural disasters on stock market values.
method Used four benchmark models to measure abnormal returns.
result Firms experienced significant stock price drops after the Texas winter storm.
In this paper we propose a quadratic programming model that can be used for calculating the term structure of electricity prices while explicitly modeling startup costs of power plants. In contrast to other approaches presented in the literature, we incorporate the startup costs in a mathematically rigorous manner with…
New SDE model from machine learning optimization with unique stationary distribution.
problem Stationary distribution of machine learning optimization models.
method Proved ergodicity and unique stationary distribution of power-law dynamic SDE.
result Power-law dynamic has a unique stationary distribution and is ergodic.
Deep learning model forecasts PV power production with high accuracy.
problem Accurate forecasting of photovoltaic power production is needed for electricity infrastructure.
method Sequence to sequence model with attention mechanism using weather predictions and historical data.
result The model outperforms existing methods in forecast skill score.
Proposes a new complex Gaussian distribution for better modeling of complex-valued signals.
problem Limited ability of Gaussian distribution to represent diverse amplitude characteristics.
method Introduces a power-weighted noncentral complex Gaussian distribution on the complex plane.
result Consistently outperforms conventional distributions in log-likelihood for speech power spectra.
This paper considers the computational power of constant size, dynamic Bayesian networks. Although discrete dynamic Bayesian networks are no more powerful than hidden Markov models, dynamic Bayesian networks with continuous random variables and discrete children of continuous parents are capable of performing Turing-co…
We present a unified method, based on convex optimization, for managing the power produced and consumed by a network of devices over time. We start with the simple setting of optimizing power flows in a static network, and then proceed to the case of optimizing dynamic power flows, i.e., power flows that change with ti…
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
As energy markets begin clearing at sub-hourly rates, their interaction with load control systems becomes a potentially important consideration. A simple model for the control of thermal systems using market-based power distribution strategies is proposed, with particular attention to the behavior and dynamics of elect…
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
problem Middle-term power consumption prediction in the energy sector.
method Incorporates trend, seasonality, and weather conditions in a shallow Neural Network.
result Excellent density forecast results on one-year test set.
LLMs learn peaked distributions slowly due to power-law losses.
problem Slow convergence of loss in training large language models.
method Systematic analysis of toy models and empirical evaluation of LLMs.
result Power-law time scaling with an exponent of 1/3 for learning peaked distributions.
Power-SMC reduces inference latency for training-free LLM reasoning.
problem Training-free LLM reasoning with low latency.
method Power-SMC, a training-free Sequential Monte Carlo scheme targeting sequence-level power distribution.
result Power-SMC reduces inference latency from 16-28× to 1.4-3.3× over baseline decoding.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness extent on the forecasting precision of the daily power price is assessed. A price…
This paper explores how enforcing equivariance constraints limits neural network expressivity and proposes compensatory model size increases.
problem The impact of enforcing equivariance constraints on the expressive power of neural networks.
method Examined 2-layer ReLU networks, analyzed boundary hyperplanes and channel vectors, and constructed upper bounds on model size required for compensation.
result Enforcing equivariance constraints reduces the expressive power of neural networks, but this can be compensated by increasing model size.
Researchers discover all affinely homogeneous models for surfaces in 4D space.
problem Identifying all affinely homogeneous models for surfaces in 4D space.
method Improved power series method of equivalence, capturing invariants at the origin, creating branches, and infinitesimalizing calculations.
result Find several inequivalent terminal branches yielding each to some nonempty moduli space of homogeneous models.
Study shows Bergman kernel quotient approaches one for punctured surfaces.
problem Analyzing Bergman kernels on punctured Riemann surfaces.
method Examined a punctured Riemann surface with a specific metric and line bundle, calculating quotient of Bergman kernels.
result The quotient of Bergman kernels tends to one as tensor power increases.