A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Bayesian method models multivalued power data from wind farms.
Paper examines power consumption in neural networks using various activation functions.
Auto-regressive conditionally heteroskedastic (ARCH) family models are still used, by practitioners in business and economic policy making, as a conditional volatility forecasting models. Furthermore ARCH models still are attracting an interest of the researchers. In this contribution we consider the well known GARCH(1…
Power laws detected in financial data, modeled with random multipliers.
A robust model handles up to 25% of outliers in time-series data for power flow calculations.
We introduce the stochastic multiplicative point process modelling trading activity of financial markets. Such a model system exhibits power-law spectral density S(f) ~ 1/f**beta, scaled as power of frequency for various values of beta between 0.5 and 2. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law autoco…
Proposes a regularization approach to model German power derivative market, identifying significant risk spillovers.
Survey on GNNs' power and limitations.
Flexible GP model improves wind power prediction accuracy.
Study shows limits of certain normalizing flows in higher dimensions.
Deep learning models, especially CNNs, can predict radio frequency power faster than traditional methods.
Study builds dataset and benchmarks ML models for accurate solar and wind power forecasting in France.
As an important part of the power system, power load forecasting directly affects the national economy. The data shows that improving the load forecasting accuracy by 0.01% can save millions of dollars for the power industry. Therefore, improving the accuracy of power load forecasting has always been the pursuing goals…
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
It is now widely accepted that, to model the dynamics of daily financial returns, volatility models have to incorporate the so-called leverage effect. We derive the asymptotic behaviour of the squared residuals autocovariances for the class of asymmetric power GARCH model when the power is unknown and is jointly estima…
GP CC-OPF solves uncertain power grid optimization with Gaussian Process.
Climate change impacts and adaptations are the subjects to ongoing issues that attract the attention of many researchers. Insight into the wind power potential in an area and its probable variation due to climate change impacts can provide useful information for energy policymakers and strategists for sustainable devel…
Signed graphs encode positive (attractive) and negative (repulsive) relations between nodes. We extend spectral clustering to signed graphs via the one-parameter family of Signed Power Mean Laplacians, defined as the matrix power mean of normalized standard and signless Laplacians of positive and negative edges. We pro…
Paper refutes conjecture on tensor power iteration convergence in overcomplete models.
Study short-term wind power and speed predictions using machine learning.
New method minimizes robust density power-based divergences for general parametric densities.
We use data on wealth of the richest persons taken from the "rich lists" provided by business magazines like Forbes to verify if upper tails of wealth distributions follow, as often claimed, a power-law behaviour. The data sets used cover the world's richest persons over 1996-2012, the richest Americans over 1988-2012,…
This paper develops an ensemble learning-based linearization approach for power flow, which differs from the network-parameter based direct current (DC) power flow or other extended versions of linearization. As a novel data-driven linearization through data mining, it firstly applies the polynomial regression (PR) as …
Driven by climatic processes, wind power generation is inherently variable. Long-term simulated wind power time series are therefore an essential component for understanding the temporal availability of wind power and its integration into future renewable energy systems. In the recent past, mainly power curve based mod…
Paper improves power of conditional randomization tests.
Power system studies require the topological structures of real-world power networks; however, such data is confidential due to important security concerns. Thus, power grid synthesis (PGS), i.e., creating realistic power grids that imitate actual power networks, has gained significant attention. In this letter, we cas…
This research simplifies computation of feature attribution methods under certain conditions.
Develops a simple model to understand learning curves for arbitrary power laws.
Paper proves SVV model reproduces power-law skew in implied volatilities.
Power of network tests degrades when vertices are misaligned.
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
New SDE model from machine learning optimization with unique stationary distribution.
In this paper we propose a quadratic programming model that can be used for calculating the term structure of electricity prices while explicitly modeling startup costs of power plants. In contrast to other approaches presented in the literature, we incorporate the startup costs in a mathematically rigorous manner with…
Deep learning model forecasts PV power production with high accuracy.
This paper considers the computational power of constant size, dynamic Bayesian networks. Although discrete dynamic Bayesian networks are no more powerful than hidden Markov models, dynamic Bayesian networks with continuous random variables and discrete children of continuous parents are capable of performing Turing-co…
Proposes a new complex Gaussian distribution for better modeling of complex-valued signals.
We present a unified method, based on convex optimization, for managing the power produced and consumed by a network of devices over time. We start with the simple setting of optimizing power flows in a static network, and then proceed to the case of optimizing dynamic power flows, i.e., power flows that change with ti…
Earlier we proposed the stochastic point process model, which reproduces a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S(f) scaling as power of the frequency f and derived a stochastic differential equation with the same long range memory properties. Here we present a stochastic differential eq…
As energy markets begin clearing at sub-hourly rates, their interaction with load control systems becomes a potentially important consideration. A simple model for the control of thermal systems using market-based power distribution strategies is proposed, with particular attention to the behavior and dynamics of elect…
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
LLMs learn peaked distributions slowly due to power-law losses.
Power-SMC reduces inference latency for training-free LLM reasoning.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness extent on the forecasting precision of the daily power price is assessed. A price…
Researchers discover all affinely homogeneous models for surfaces in 4D space.
This paper explores how enforcing equivariance constraints limits neural network expressivity and proposes compensatory model size increases.
Study shows Bergman kernel quotient approaches one for punctured surfaces.
We show that there is a common mode of origin for the power laws observed in two different models: (i) the Pareto law for the distribution of money among the agents with random saving propensities in an ideal gas-like market model and (ii) the Gutenberg-Richter law for the distribution of overlaps in a fractal-overlap …