Graph conformal prediction predicts future power outages with high confidence.
problem Accurately predicting future power outages to enable rapid recovery.
method Developed a graph conformal prediction method for quarter-hourly outage data.
result Graph conformal prediction method delivers accurate prediction regions for future outage numbers.
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in urban distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers making phone calls and smart meters' "last gasp" si…
Study examines stock price reactions to Texas winter storm power outages.
problem Impact of natural disasters on stock market values.
method Used four benchmark models to measure abnormal returns.
result Firms experienced significant stock price drops after the Texas winter storm.
Identifying a potentially large number of simultaneous line outages in power transmission networks in real time is a computationally hard problem. This is because the number of hypotheses grows exponentially with the network size. A new "Learning-to-Infer" method is developed for efficient inference of every line statu…
New method identifies distribution grid outages using smart meter data.
problem Outages in urban distribution grids due to DERs and smart meters' last gasp signals.
method Data-driven approach based on stochastic time series analysis and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Proves optimal performance in identifying distribution grid outages using smart meter data.
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and it is updated based on incoming field reports using natural language processing …
This paper presents a novel data-driven approach for predicting the number of vegetation-related outages that occur in power distribution systems on a monthly basis. In order to develop an approach that is able to successfully fulfill this objective, there are two main challenges that ought to be addressed. The first c…
Study examines equity in post-Snow Uri recovery, finds disparities.
problem Disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations during recovery.
method County and census tract level data analysis, satellite imagery, statistical procedures.
result Negative associations between non-Hispanic whites and outages, positive associations with certain demographic variables.
A digital euro protocol offers complete privacy and offline transactions using Groth-Sahai proofs.
problem Fragile digital payment solutions with privacy and offline transaction issues.
method Design and implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) using Groth-Sahai zero-knowledge proofs.
result Complete privacy and offline transaction capability with retroactive double-spending detection.
New loss function reduces outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation.
problem Minimizing outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation systems.
method Developed a novel loss function and trained an ML model to address the outage probability challenge.
result Exact and asymptotic expressions for the system's outage probability were established.
Paper models cloud outages for cyber insurance stress-testing.
problem Cyber insurance portfolios' vulnerability to simultaneous cloud outages.
method Modeling and calibrating cloud-outage scenarios, measuring diversification.
result Cloud-outage diversification can protect against accumulation risk.
Distributed, controllable energy storage devices offer several benefits to electric power system operation. Three such benefits include reducing peak load, providing standby power, and enhancing power quality. These benefits, however, are only realized during peak load or during an outage, events that are infrequent. T…
The paper models intraday power prices using fundamental drivers.
problem Lack of research on drivers for intraday price processes.
method Modelling location, shape, and scale of intraday price distribution using fundamental variables.
result Significant improvements in probabilistic forecasting performance, especially in tails.
Winterization of Texas power system profitable but risky, estimated at $11.74bn over 30 years.
problem Profitability and risk of winterizing Texas power system infrastructure.
method Combined temperature-dependent load and outage estimates over 71 years of climate data.
result Large-scale winterization of gas infrastructure and power plants is profitable, but risks are high due to low-frequency of cold spells.
A robust model handles up to 25% of outliers in time-series data for power flow calculations.
problem Handling outliers in time-series data for accurate power flow calculations.
method Robust data-driven process model with Schweppe-type generalized maximum likelihood estimator and projection statistics for outlier weighting.
result The model can handle up to 25% of outliers in the training data set.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for nonlinear processing of graph signals, exhibiting success in recommender systems, power outage prediction, and motion planning, among others. GNNs consists of a cascade of layers, each of which applies a graph convolution, followed by a pointwise nonlinea…
The paper studies calibration in ML models for wireless networks, showing key theoretical and practical insights.
problem Ensuring ML models in wireless networks deliver well-calibrated confidence scores for reliable decision-making.
method Theoretical analysis and simulation-based experiments using Platt scaling and isotonic regression.
result Well-calibrated models improve the system's minimum achievable OP and are part of a broader class of predictors.
RiskNet predicts penalties in unreliable communication networks using GNNs.
problem Predicting penalties in networks with unreliable resources.
method Graph Neural Network (GNN) based approach trained on random graphs.
result Precisely models penalties across various network topologies.
EGFC learns from streaming data to classify power quality disturbances.
problem Real-time detection and classification of power quality disturbances.
method Evolving Gaussian Fuzzy Classification (EGFC) framework with semi-supervised learning.
result Encouraging classification results from online data streams.
High volume of data, perceived as either challenge or opportunity. Deep learning architecture demands high volume of data to effectively back propagate and train the weights without bias. At the same time, large volume of data demands higher capacity of the machine where it could be executed seamlessly. Budding data sc…
New method quantifies resilience of electric distribution systems from historical data.
problem Large blackouts caused by extreme winds have significant costs and impacts.
method Formulate large event risk from utility outage data, quantify resilience improvements through investments.
result Investments in wind hardening and faster restoration can reduce the probability of large cost events.
Poor economies not only produce less; they typically produce things that involve fewer inputs and fewer intermediate steps. Yet the supply chains of poor countries face more frequent disruptions---delivery failures, faulty parts, delays, power outages, theft, government failures---that systematically thwart the product…
Ebay uses forecasting and simulation to decide when to disable a vendor.
problem Determining the optimal time to disable a vendor to avoid customer loss.
method Data-driven approach involving multiplicative seasonality model, Monte Carlo simulation, and linear model.
result Identifies the best time to disable a vendor to minimize customer loss.
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
problem Allocating costs of operating reserves and transmission efficiently.
method Causation-based framework using contingency-constrained scheduling models.
result More comprehensive and efficient cost-reflective market operations.
In this paper, we present a probabilistic numerical algorithm combining dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulations and local basis regressions to solve non-stationary optimal multiple switching problems in infinite horizon. We provide the rate of convergence of the method in terms of the time step used to discretize …
AI model enhances grid monitoring with synchro-waveform tech.
problem Dynamic, stochastic, low-inertia future grids need advanced monitoring.
method AI Foundation Model with synchro-waveform tech.
result Significantly improved fault detection accuracy and speed.
Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We consider the case of having many labeled observations from one distribution, $P_…
Model equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets with uncertainty.
problem Formulate equilibrium model for intraday electricity trading with balancing constraints and uncertainty.
method Develop equilibrium model with agents' balancing constraints, forecasted consumption, production uncertainties, and Markov chain outages.
result Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium price as a martingale, with insights into price formation and impact of uncertainty.
In future cell-free (or cell-less) wireless networks, a large number of devices in a geographical area will be served simultaneously in non-orthogonal multiple access scenarios by a large number of distributed access points (APs), which coordinate with a centralized processing pool. For such a centralized cell-free net…
In this article, we study a Radio Resource Allocation (RRA) that was formulated as a non-convex optimization problem whose main aim is to maximize the spectral efficiency subject to satisfaction guarantees in multiservice wireless systems. This problem has already been previously investigated in the literature and effi…
Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods predominantly focus on o…
This work improves communication efficiency in federated learning over wireless networks by optimizing energy consumption.
problem Optimizing energy consumption in federated learning over wireless networks.
method Adopting SignSGD for gradient sign exchange, considering channel capacity with outage, and proposing a stochastic sign-based algorithm for uneven data distribution.
result Proposed methods achieve a balance between learning performance and energy consumption.
Many real-world applications involve multivariate, geo-tagged time series data: at each location, multiple sensors record corresponding measurements. For example, air quality monitoring system records PM2.5, CO, etc. The resulting time-series data often has missing values due to device outages or communication errors. …
Proposes a neural network for efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting in industrial energy trading systems.
method Market-rule-informed neural network framework.
result The proposed model achieves competitive forecasting performance with fewer parameters and shorter training time.
Many wireless networks, including 5G NR (New Radio) and future beyond 5G cellular systems, are expected to operate on multiple frequency bands. This paper considers the band assignment (BA) problem in dual-band systems, where the basestation (BS) chooses one of the two available frequency bands (centimeter-wave and mil…
A new machine learning framework reduces IoT data transfer by two orders of magnitude.
problem Reducing data transfer in IoT devices over wireless channels.
method Developed a machine learning framework for distributed functional compression over GMAC and AWGN channels.
result The framework reduces communication by two orders of magnitude compared to cloud-based methods.
Optimizes intraday electricity trading to minimize costs.
problem Minimizing costs in intraday electricity trading.
method Derives an optimal model considering order book depth, time to delivery, and trading regimes.
result Optimal execution strategies have a significant monetary impact.
Semi-decentralized federated learning combines device-to-server and device-to-device communications for faster convergence.
problem Faster convergence in federated learning with decentralized model training.
method Two timescale hybrid federated learning (TT-HF) with cooperative D2D model aggregations.
result Achieves sublinear convergence rate of O(1/t) with adaptive control algorithm.
Casper uses causal graph neural networks to improve spatiotemporal time series imputation.
problem Imputing missing values in spatiotemporal time series with confounders and non-causal correlations.
method Casper introduces a novel Prompt Based Decoder (PBD) and Spatiotemporal Causal Attention (SCA) to block confounders and discover causal relationships.
result Casper outperforms baselines and effectively discovers causal relationships in spatiotemporal time series imputation.
Proposes a framework to handle missing data in traffic forecasting with sensor blackouts.
problem Missing data in traffic forecasting due to sensor blackouts, especially when correlated with traffic conditions.
method Latent state-space framework that models traffic dynamics and sensor dropout probabilities.
result Improves traffic forecasting by reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 to 4.23, with MNAR modeling providing additional gains.
New algorithm extracts device profiles for short-term power predictions in commercial buildings.
problem Short-term power prediction in commercial buildings with high accuracy.
method Unsupervised extraction of device profiles from aggregate power measurements, disaggregation using particle swarm optimization, and state changes forecast by artificial neural networks.
result Developed approach outperforms existing methods with high accuracy.
Power quandles improve group invariants and allow group presentations.
problem Understanding and classifying groups using algebraic structures.
method Introducing power quandles, which retain conjugation and power maps, and showing their effectiveness in group theory.
result Power quandles determine central quotients and centers of groups, and can approximate any group.
Novel power transform unifies various mathematical functions.
problem Normalizing and standardizing datasets.
method Presented a novel power transform.
result Unified various mathematical functions.
Study of metrics on positive-definite matrices from power potential, linking to power means.
problem Understanding metrics on positive-definite matrices derived from power potential.
method Explicit expressions for geodesics and distance function derived from Hessian of power potential.
result Geodesics and distance function converge to weighted matrix geometric mean as β tends to zero.
The paper establishes conditions for strict power concavity in convolutions.
problem Conditions for strict power concavity in convolutions.
method Analyzes sufficient conditions for strict parabolic power concavity of convolutions.
result Establishes sufficient conditions for strict power concavity of convolutions.
Power system studies require the topological structures of real-world power networks; however, such data is confidential due to important security concerns. Thus, power grid synthesis (PGS), i.e., creating realistic power grids that imitate actual power networks, has gained significant attention. In this letter, we cas…
Power laws detected in financial data, modeled with random multipliers.
problem Detecting power laws in financial data.
method Investigated data from financial instruments, proposed a model based on sums of Maxwell-Boltzmann distributions with random multipliers.
result Detected power laws with various exponents in financial data, proposed a universal model.