A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
WindDragon forecasts wind power with deep learning.
PhI-GPR improves power grid state estimation and forecasting.
Paper proposes dense average network for improved power load forecasting.
Neural network predicts daily power consumption with high accuracy.
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the imp…
Extended CSGE improves power and cyclist movement forecasting.
Paper introduces normalizing flows for accurate probabilistic energy forecasting.
A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilber…
Novel framework improves wind power forecasts by bundling assets and using machine learning.
Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.
New method achieves faster calibration without randomization.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
The paper compares DL models to WP curve modeling for forecasting with irregular shutdowns.
We propose a new forecasting method for predicting load demand and generation scheduling. Accurate week-long forecasting of load demand and optimal power generation is critical for efficient operation of power grid systems. In this work, we use a synthetic data set describing a power grid with 700 buses and 134 generat…
Deep learning model forecasts PV power production with high accuracy.
RNN(p) improves power consumption forecasts with interpretable models.
New model forecasts power consumption with high accuracy over months to years.
Paper proposes a method for weather-informed probabilistic forecasting and scenario generation in power systems.
In this article we present an approach that enables joint wind speed and wind power forecasts for a wind park. We combine a multivariate seasonal time varying threshold autoregressive moving average (TVARMA) model with a power threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (power-TGARCH) model. The mo…
The paper develops a method for forecasting power consumption at various levels of aggregation.
Paper benchmarks and customizes energy forecasting methods.
The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.
New algorithm extracts device profiles for short-term power predictions in commercial buildings.
In this article, we propose a novel ensemble technique with a multi-scheme weighting based on a technique called coopetitive soft gating. This technique combines both, ensemble member competition and cooperation, in order to maximize the overall forecasting accuracy of the ensemble. The proposed algorithm combines the …
The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and…
This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness extent on the forecasting precision of the daily power price is assessed. A price…
Study builds dataset and benchmarks ML models for accurate solar and wind power forecasting in France.
The problem of probabilistic forecasting and online simulation of real-time electricity market with stochastic generation and demand is considered. By exploiting the parametric structure of the direct current optimal power flow, a new technique based on online dictionary learning (ODL) is proposed. The ODL approach inc…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in …
This paper improves wind power prediction via weather forecast-contextualized Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models. Initially, only wind power data was fed to a generic LSTM, but this model performed poorly, with erratic and naive behavior observed on even low-variance data sections. To address this issu…
The paper models intraday power prices using fundamental drivers.
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form…
A predictor improves power grid frequency forecasts up to one hour.
We present a unified method, based on convex optimization, for managing the power produced and consumed by a network of devices over time. We start with the simple setting of optimizing power flows in a static network, and then proceed to the case of optimizing dynamic power flows, i.e., power flows that change with ti…
With the increasing penetration of solar power into power systems, forecasting becomes critical in power system operations. In this paper, an hourly-similarity (HS) based method is developed for 1-hour-ahead (1HA) global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasting. This developed method utilizes diurnal patterns, statistic…
Power supply from renewable resources is on a global rise where it is forecasted that renewable generation will surpass other types of generation in a foreseeable future. Increased generation from renewable resources, mainly solar and wind, exposes the power grid to more vulnerabilities, conceivably due to their variab…
We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of developing scalable methods for forecasting distributed solar and other renewable powe…
THieF improves day-ahead electricity price prediction accuracy by reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
Study identifies regions where scoring rules reliably detect forecast errors.
Study short-term wind power and speed predictions using machine learning.
An accurate load forecasting has always been one of the main indispensable parts in the operation and planning of power systems. Among different time horizons of forecasting, while short-term load forecasting (STLF) and long-term load forecasting (LTLF) have respectively got benefits of accurate predictors and probabil…
Integrating wind power into the grid is challenging because of its random nature. Integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that incorporates the time series data of a target station and data of surrounding stations…
Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.
Optimal scheduling of hydrogen production in dynamic pricing power market can maximize the profit of hydrogen producer; however, it highly depends on the accurate forecast of hydrogen consumption. In this paper, we propose a deep leaning based forecasting approach for predicting hydrogen consumption of fuel cell vehicl…
A new method forecasts hourly electricity prices considering product dynamics and limit order book signals.
A study on power market price forecasting by deep learning is presented. As one of the most successful deep learning frameworks, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network is utilized. The hourly prices data from the New England and PJM day-ahead markets are used in this study. First, a LSTM network is formulated…
Machine learning predicts CO2 emissions in power grids, reducing uncertainty.
Contemporary power grids are being challenged by rapid voltage fluctuations that are caused by large-scale deployment of renewable generation, electric vehicles, and demand response programs. In this context, monitoring the grid's operating conditions in real time becomes increasingly critical. With the emergent large …