arXiv research

New SDE model from machine learning optimization with unique stationary distribution.

Evidence Networks simplify Bayesian model comparison for complex models.

We present a number of related comparison results, which allow to compare moment explosion times, moment generating functions and critical moments between rough and non-rough Heston models of stochastic volatility. All results are based on a comparison principle for certain non-linear Volterra integral equations. Our u…

We provide analytical tools for pricing power options with exotic features (capped or log payoffs, gap options ...) in the framework of exponential Lévy models driven by one-sided stable or tempered stable processes. Pricing formulas take the form of fast converging series of powers of the log-forward moneyness and of …

Study reveals $1/f$ noise in signals made from nonoverlapping rectangular pulses.

BSD is a Bayesian framework for analyzing neural spectral data.

Develops a statistical framework to measure uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences.

Suppose that we wish to estimate a vector $\mathbf{x}$ from a set of binary paired comparisons of the form "$\mathbf{x}$ is closer to $\mathbf{p}$ than to $\mathbf{q}$" for various choices of vectors $\mathbf{p}$ and $\mathbf{q}$. The problem of estimating $\mathbf{x}$ from this type of observation arises in a variety …

CTT compresses samples to test distributions near-linearly, outperforming existing methods.

Do two data samples come from different distributions? Recent studies of this fundamental problem focused on embedding probability distributions into sufficiently rich characteristic Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs), to compare distributions by the distance between their embeddings. We show that Regularized Ma…

Study compares exponential and power-law kernels in modeling high-frequency trading data.

In the world of big data, large but costly to label datasets dominate many fields. Active learning, a semi-supervised alternative to the standard PAC-learning model, was introduced to explore whether adaptive labeling could learn concepts with exponentially fewer labeled samples. While previous results show that active…

Develops a method to infer partial rankings from sparse comparisons.

Paper proposes a sequential statistical test for comparing imitation learning policies with near-optimal stopping.

Deep neural kernels and Laplace kernel have equivalent RKHS on spheres.

Let L be a line bundle over a compact complex manifold X and endow L and TX with Hermitian metrics. Our main result provides a formula for the average distribution of the exponentially small eigenvalues of the corresponding Dolbeault Laplacians associated to high tensor powers of L; which in physics terminology is a me…

Smart grid is an emerging and promising technology. It uses the power of information technologies to deliver intelligently the electrical power to customers, and it allows the integration of the green technology to meet the environmental requirements. Unfortunately, information technologies have its inherent vulnerabil…

Paper proposes a new method to compare classifiers across multiple datasets.

Fast algorithm recovers principal eigenvector from noisy matrices.

In this short paper, we overview and extend the results of our papers cond-mat/0001432, cond-mat/0008305, and cond-mat/0103544, where we use an analogy with statistical physics to describe probability distributions of money, income, and wealth in society. By making a detailed quantitative comparison with the available …

In this paper, we propose Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) architectures that use Capsule Networks for image-synthesis. Based on the principal of positional-equivariance of features, Capsule Network's ability to encode spatial relationships between the features of the image helps it become a more powerful critic in…

Study efficient power iteration for tensor models, proving convergence under specific conditions.

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size needed to establish a comparative $n$ needed for statistical significance, 2) allows…

New adversarial training method improves robustness of power system controllers.

Proposes Population Difference Criterion for visually observed subpopulation differences.

Looped transformers with LN converge to power method for principal component prediction.

We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting a shift between the means of two multivariate normal distributions in the high-dimensional setting, allowing for the data dimension p to exceed the sample size n. Specifically, we propose a new test statistic for the two-sample test of means that integrates a rand…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in …

We investigate the credit risk model defined in Hatchett & Kühn under more general assumptions, in particular using a general degree distribution for sparse graphs. Expanding upon earlier results, we show that the model is exactly solvable in the $N\rightarrow \infty$ limit and demonstrate that the exact solution is de…

This paper introduces an approach for detecting differences in the first-order structures of spatial point patterns. The proposed approach leverages the kernel mean embedding in a novel way by introducing its approximate version tailored to spatial point processes. While the original embedding is infinite-dimensional a…

Studying the geometric flow plays a powerful role in mathematics and physics. In this paper, we introduce the mean curvature flow on Finsler manifolds and give a number of examples of the mean curvature flow. For Minkowski spaces, a special case of Finsler manifolds, we will prove the existence and uniqueness for solut…

Transformer learns to estimate negative binomial parameters efficiently.

This paper enhances privacy-preserving randomized power method for large datasets.

A new robust PCA estimator combining M-estimators and minimum divergence estimators.

DIET tests conditional independence using marginal dependence measures of residual information.

Extended CSGE improves power and cyclist movement forecasting.

We study the activity, i.e., the number of transactions per unit time, of financial markets. Using the diffusion entropy technique we show that the autocorrelation of the activity is caused by the presence of peaks whose time distances are distributed following an asymptotic power law which ultimately recovers the Pois…

The higher-end tail of the wealth distribution in India is studied using recently published lists of the wealth of richest Indians between the years 2002-4. The resulting rank distribution seems to imply a power-law tail for the wealth distribution, with a Pareto exponent between 0.81 and 0.92 (depending on the year un…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form…

An appropriate choice of the activation function (like ReLU, sigmoid or swish) plays an important role in the performance of (deep) multilayer perceptrons (MLP) for classification and regression learning. Prototype-based classification learning methods like (generalized) learning vector quantization (GLVQ) are powerful…

Study compares two market clearing methods for European power markets.

Statistical tests that compare classification algorithms are univariate and use a single performance measure, e.g., misclassification error, $F$ measure, AUC, and so on. In multivariate tests, comparison is done using multiple measures simultaneously. For example, error is the sum of false positives and false negatives…

The use of fingerprinting localization techniques in outdoor IoT settings has started to gain popularity over the recent years. Communication signals of Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPWAN), such as LoRaWAN, are used to estimate the location of low power mobile devices. In this study, a publicly available dataset of Lo…

Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…

Traditional voxel-level multiple testing procedures in neuroimaging, mostly $p$-value based, often ignore the spatial correlations among neighboring voxels and thus suffer from substantial loss of power. We extend the local-significance-index based procedure originally developed for the hidden Markov chain models, whic…

This paper proposes a Hilbert space embedding for Dirichlet Process mixture models via a stick-breaking construction of Sethuraman. Although Bayesian nonparametrics offers a powerful approach to construct a prior that avoids the need to specify the model size/complexity explicitly, an exact inference is often intractab…

Study compares deep learning stock trading strategies in adverse market conditions.

We present a novel hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning, called Hybrid HPC (H2PC). It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. It is based on a subroutine called HPC, that combines ideas from increment…