CNNs estimate poverty from satellite images, explaining 47% of variation in Mexico.
problem Mapping poverty in developing countries.
method Convolutional Neural Networks trained on high and medium resolution satellite images.
result CNNs explain 47% of poverty variation in Mexico's municipalities.
With a new deprivation (or poverty) function, in this paper, we theoretically study the changes in poverty with respect to the `global' mean and variance of the income distribution using Indian survey data. We show that when the income obeys a log-normal distribution, a rising mean income generally indicates a reductio…
Develops a graph-based convolutional network for multi-view networks to improve poverty research.
problem Binary treatment of social network relations in graph learning models.
method Multi-GCN: Graph Convolutional Networks for Multi-View Networks.
result Multi-GCN outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on poverty prediction tasks and broader multi-view network tasks.
Modeling poverty transitions in India over 54 years, showing rising but persistent poverty.
problem Understanding and addressing poverty dynamics in India over long periods.
method Stochastic model of Geometric Brownian Motion with reallocation (RGBM).
result Annual poverty transitions are common, but poverty persists, especially among the poorest.
In a recent work (Chattopadhyay, A. K. et al, Europhys. Lett. {\bf 91}, 58003, 2010) based on food consumption statistics, we showed how a stochastic agent based model could represent the time variation of the income distribution statistics in a developing economy, thereby defining an alternative \enquote{poverty index…
Machine learning identifies poor households with simple survey questions.
problem Classifying poor households in data-scarce countries.
method Cross-validation and parameter regularization to reduce overfitting.
result The model accurately predicts poverty using only ten survey questions.
Wariness affects poverty traps and equilibrium diversity in economic models.
problem The impact of wariness on poverty traps and equilibrium diversity in economic models.
method An overlapping generations model to explore the effects of wariness on poverty traps and equilibrium diversity.
result Wariness can amplify or mitigate the likelihood of poverty traps and can lead to multiple intertemporal equilibria.
We provide investment advice for an individual who wishes to minimize her lifetime poverty, with a penalty for bankruptcy or ruin. We measure poverty via a non-negative, non-increasing function of (running) wealth. Thus, the lower wealth falls and the longer wealth stays low, the greater the penalty. This paper general…
CNN models predict local economic livelihoods from free satellite imagery.
problem Lack of detailed economic data in developing countries.
method Trained CNN models on free Landsat 7 satellite imagery.
result Achieved accuracies exceeding previous benchmarks.
Subsidized insurance reduces poverty by providing social benefits and lowering government costs.
problem Reducing poverty through effective social protection mechanisms.
method Modeling household capital dynamics under four insurance frameworks (uninsured, insured, insured with subsidies, insured with flexible premiums) to assess poverty reduction and governmental costs.
result Subsidized insurance schemes provide maximum social benefits while reducing governmental costs, effectively reducing poverty.
Spatial machine learning improves poverty targeting in Indonesia.
problem Conventional PMT methods have high exclusion and inclusion errors due to spatial dependencies and regional heterogeneity.
method Integrates spatial contiguity matrices into SML models to identify and compare poverty clusters.
result SML reduces exclusion errors from 28% to 20% compared to standard machine learning models.
Scoping review of EO-ML methods for causal inference in poverty geography.
problem Lack of thorough documentation and best practices for EO-ML methods in causal analysis.
method Comprehensive scoping review cataloging five principal approaches.
result Detailed protocol for integrating EO data into causal analysis.
New indicator detects financial strain through smart meter data.
problem Fuel poverty in households, affecting millions.
method Smart meters and machine learning for behavior measurement.
result Early detection of financial strain in households.
Poor economies face frequent disruptions that trap them in producing simpler goods.
problem Frequent disruptions in poor economies prevent them from producing complex goods.
method Modeling an evolving input-output network with optimizing agents that adapt to disruptions.
result A poverty trap emerges where disruptions persist despite agents producing simpler goods.
Study analyzes household capital risk and poverty trapping, deriving a new function for capital deficit distribution.
problem Analyzing the risk of household capital falling into poverty.
method Introduced a new Gerber-Shiu function to model trapping time and capital deficit distribution.
result Derived a model for capital deficit distribution at trapping using GB distributions.
Model shows how capital accumulation can lead to poverty traps and well-being states.
problem Capital accumulation and its effects on poverty and well-being.
method Stochastic Solow growth model with sigmoidal saving fraction and bimodal steady state distribution.
result Existence of poverty trap with fluctuation-driven transitions between poverty and well-being states.
Satellite imagery helps adjust for unobserved confounders in observational studies.
problem Adjusting for confounding factors in observational studies with non-tabular data like satellite imagery.
method Formalizing conditions for causal effect identification, estimation, and sensitivity analysis.
result Demonstrated the use of satellite imagery as a proxy for unobserved confounders in anti-poverty aid programs.
Study compares clustering methods for student poverty levels in unsupervised surveys.
problem Identifying impoverished students in unsupervised survey data.
method Multiple clustering techniques (k-means, k-modes, hierarchical clustering) applied to student survey data.
result Fuzzy logic used for data cleaning and organizing, identifying most viable clustering method for survey data.
Study optimizes CT and microinsurance for efficient social protection in low-income countries.
problem Efficient targeting of cash transfers to reduce social protection costs in low-income countries.
method Modelled household capital dynamics using piecewise-deterministic Markov process, derived HJB equation for optimal injection, used dynamic programming.
result Optimal level of capital injection above poverty threshold for cost-effective social protection.
Study examines how insurance affects households prone to proportional losses, especially those near poverty.
problem Impact of insurance on households susceptible to proportional losses, focusing on poverty traps.
method Modelled proportional capital losses with insurance, derived closed formulae and non-local differential equations.
result New formulae and methods to calculate trapping probability, constraints on parameters to prevent certainty of trapping.
We analyze a conservative market model for the competition among economic agents in a close society. A minimum dynamics ensures that the poorest agent has a chance to improve its economic welfare. After a transient, the system self-organizes into a critical state where the wealth distribution have a minimum threshold, …
We present a stochastic agent-based model for the distribution of personal incomes in a developing economy. We start with the assumption that incomes are determined both by individual labour and by stochastic effects of trading and investment. The income from personal effort alone is distributed about a mean, while the…
A new CA-GAN architecture improves minority class data generation in health datasets.
problem Algorithmic bias due to health data poverty and underrepresentation of minority groups.
method Proposes CA-GAN architecture to address shortcomings of resampling and GAN-based approaches.
result CA-GAN outperforms SMOTE and WGAN-GP* in generating authentic minority class data and maintaining original distribution.
Discriminatory trade liberalization policies are becoming more popular among world economies. Countries are motivated to enter for regional trade agreements to capture faster economic growth for alleviating poverty. In developing economies like most of the member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations…
A new frequency-based index estimates sub-cluster connections.
problem Determining the strength of connections between similar sub-clusters.
method Frequency coefficient based on the SST poverty index for clustering.
result Estimation of connection strength reveals natural homogeneous clusters.
Framework predicts household incomes using common indicators across regions.
problem Finding a single policy for multiple regions with diverse issues.
method Regression analysis and Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle.
result Framework identifies largest regions with common indicators for efficient income prediction.
A control-theoretic model tackles microfinance sustainability issues.
problem High default rates in microfinance due to lack of data and information.
method A novel control-theoretic model that learns microfinance decision policies.
result The model achieves financial inclusion, fairness, social welfare, and sustainability.
Paper analyzes factors affecting COVID-19 risk in US counties.
problem Identifying factors influencing COVID-19 risk in US counties.
method Combines unsupervised (K-means clustering) and supervised learning models.
result Mean temperature, poverty, obesity, and other factors are most significant.
New proof shows local wealth condensation in economic models with biases.
problem Economic models with biases leading to wealth condensation.
method Elementary proof based on properties of wealth distributions.
result Local wealth condensation observed in models with wealth or poverty advantages.
The world GDP distribution is described using thermodynamics principles.
problem Understanding the distribution of GDP among countries.
method Applied Rayleigh-Jeans thermalization to GDP data.
result Emergence of low GDP states similar to condensation in optics.
Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of conservative wealth exchanges among economic agents. A few years ago an exchange model using extremal dynamics was developed and a very interesting result was obtained: a self-generated minimum wealth or poverty line. On the other hand, the wealth distribution exhi…
Paper introduces multi-scale methods to improve CATE estimation from EO data.
problem Challenges in balancing fine-grained and contextual information in EO-based causal inference.
method Multi-Scale Representation Concatenation, combining Vision Transformer and Causal Forests.
result Multi-scale approach captures effect heterogeneity better than single-scale models.
Study uses machine learning to predict income levels, achieving 88.16% accuracy.
problem Predicting income levels to reduce economic inequality.
method Used Gradient Boosting Classifier Model on UCI Adult Dataset.
result Achieved 88.16% accuracy in predicting income categories.
Data mining revealed a cluster of economic, psychological, social and cultural indicators that in combination predicted corruption and wealth of European nations. This prosperity syndrome of self-reliant citizens, efficient division of labor, a sophisticated scientific community, and respect for the law, was clearly di…
Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.
problem Improving treatment allocation in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Maximizes a functional of the conditional potential outcome distribution.
result Developed expected regret lower bounds and near minimax optimal policy.
Study examines risks of using non-verified open data for AI in India.
problem Risks of using non-verified open data for AI in resource-poor settings.
method Exploring challenges of using an open dataset from India to predict pregnancy outcomes.
result AI applications without proper understanding of metrics can lead to erroneous conclusions.
New methods reduce bias in machine learning predictions for causal inference without extra data.
problem Machine learning predictions from satellite data shrink toward the mean, leading to biased causal estimates.
method Two post-hoc correction methods: Linear Calibration Correction (LCC) and Tweedie's approach, reduce shrinkage-induced bias.
result Tweedie's method yields nearly unbiased treatment-effect estimates, enabling multiple trials with a single map.
This paper combines ideas from classical economics and modern finance with the general Lotka-Volterra models of Levy & Solomon to provide straightforward explanations of wealth and income distributions. Using a simple and realistic economic formulation, the distributions of both wealth and income are fully explained. B…
Complexity science integrates natural and social sciences to understand socio-economic dynamics.
problem Chronic poverty and lack of understanding of societal development.
method Use of tools from natural sciences to analyze socio-economic factors.
result Integration of natural and social sciences reveals synergistic mechanisms driving societal evolution.
Study maps interdependence of SDGs, finds complex, dynamic linkages.
problem Identify which SDGs promote progress and how quickly.
method Used a balanced panel of 114 countries from 2000 to 2024, applying two estimators to recover directed interaction network and measure dynamic linkages.
result 84 goal linkages survive false-discovery control, showing both synergies and trade-offs, with no single goal acting as a universal accelerator.
Develops a new inference method for split-sample estimators using multiple splits.
problem Statistical dependence and variability in split-sample estimators.
method Averaging across multiple splits, proving a central limit theorem, and developing new inference approaches.
result Valid confidence intervals and improved power in comparing model performance.
Reduces variance in noisy social outcomes to improve policy evaluation and optimization.
problem Improving access to opportunity through personalized treatment decisions.
method Data-driven dimensionality-reduction using reduced rank regression to denoise multiple outcomes.
result Improves estimation error in policy evaluation and optimization, including on real-world data.
Study shows a positive effect of mindset interventions on student performance, with significant heterogeneity.
problem Assessing the effect of student mindset interventions and identifying factors that moderate this effect.
method Used machine learning techniques to address treatment overlap, balance, and imputation of conditional average treatment effects.
result The mindset intervention has a positive average effect of 0.26, with heterogeneity ranging from 0.1 to 0.4, moderated by school-level factors.
We develop a new statistical test for comparing variables with varying scales.
problem Comparing variables with different scales in multidimensional spaces.
method Order based on expectations of random variables, generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, regularized statistical test, linear optimization, imprecise probability models.
result Validated through multidimensional data from various fields.
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme p…
Model infers functions for attributes using multi-aggregate datasets with knowledge transfer.
problem Modeling aggregate data with varying granularities and spatial supports.
method Multi-output Gaussian process (MoGP) with linear mixing of independent latent GPs, aggregation process, and prior distribution of mixing weights.
result Proposed model outperforms in refining coarse-grained aggregate data.
A new framework for fair unemployment benefits using game theory.
problem Designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits.
method Cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy.
result A fair, debt-free, and asymptotically risk-free payroll tax rule.
Model trains agents to optimize saving and investment strategies for diverse retirement needs.
problem Optimal saving and investment strategies for individuals in varied employment and income profiles.
method Deep reinforcement learning to train intelligent agents with heterogeneous profiles.
result Flexible methodology estimates lifetime consumption and investment choices for different profiles.