Post-hoc calibration improves uncertainty under domain shift.
problem Improving uncertainty calibration under domain shift.
method Apply perturbations to validation set before post-hoc calibration.
result Perturbation step results in better calibration under domain shift.
Post-hoc uncertainty quantification improves on pre-trained neural networks without underfitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks is underfitting or computationally demanding.
method Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) for neuron-level uncertainty, with two methods: GAPA-Free and GAPA-Variational.
result GAPA-Variational outperforms Laplace approximation on most datasets in uncertainty quantification metrics.
Geometric method improves uncertainty estimation in real-time.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Geometric distance from training inputs for uncertainty estimation, post-hoc calibration.
result Method yields better uncertainty estimations than existing approaches.
Combines Laplace approximations of deep networks for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Overconfident predictions on outliers in deep learning models.
method Gaussian mixture model posterior using weighted sum of Laplace approximations of pre-trained deep networks.
result Mitigates overconfidence 'far away' from training data.
Enhances deep neural networks with fixed-mean Gaussian processes for uncertainty estimation.
problem Post-hoc uncertainty estimation of pre-trained deep neural networks.
method Fixed-mean Gaussian processes with variational inference for efficient stochastic optimization.
result FMGP improves uncertainty estimation and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
TULiP estimates uncertainty for deep learning models safely.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for deep learning models in the open world.
method TULiP considers a hypothetical perturbation, bounds its effect, and computes uncertainty from sampled predictions.
result TULiP achieves state-of-the-art performance in OOD detection benchmarks.
Novel framework improves GNN uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
problem Improving reliability of GNN uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
method Adapting stochastic data centering to graph data through novel graph anchoring strategies.
result G-ΔUQ leads to better calibrated GNNs for node and graph classification. EAGLE improves reproducibility and stability of model explanations.
problem Creating reliable explanations for opaque machine learning models.
method Formulates perturbation selection as an information-theoretic active learning problem.
result EAGLE learns a linear surrogate model with feature importance scores and uncertainty estimates.
Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
problem Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
method Empirical study and analysis of post-hoc transforms like temperature scaling, ensembling, and SWA.
result Post-hoc reversal can prevent double descent and mitigate mismatches between test loss and test error.
GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification for pretrained networks.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimates for pretrained models are challenging.
method Post-hoc Gaussian Process Activations (GAPA) method that shifts Bayesian modeling from weights to activations.
result GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification without altering the backbone's predictions.
ABNN converts pre-trained DNNs into BNNs for reliable uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks (DNNs) is challenging and critical for real-world applications.
method Adaptable Bayesian Neural Network (ABNN) that transforms pre-trained DNNs into BNNs with minimal overhead.
result ABNN achieves state-of-the-art performance in image classification and semantic segmentation tasks.
Discriminative jackknife estimates deep learning uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Discriminative jackknife using influence functions of loss.
result DJ satisfies frequentist coverage and discriminative accuracy.
A framework for quantifying uncertainty in feature importance values.
problem Stable interpretation of feature importance values in machine learning models.
method A novel method based on pairwise comparisons of feature importance values to produce confidence intervals for feature ranks.
result The method produces simultaneous confidence intervals for feature ranks, enabling selection of top-k important features.
This work approximates full conformal prediction for neural networks without sample splitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification for neural network regression models.
method Approximating full conformal prediction using Gauss-Newton influence for post-hoc uncertainty estimation.
result Locally-adaptive and often tighter prediction intervals compared to split-CP.
Unified approach for multicalibration in weakly supervised learning.
problem Existing multicalibration methods require clean input-label pairs, which are unavailable in weakly supervised learning.
method Developed estimators and post-hoc correction methods for multicalibration under weak supervision.
result Unified framework for estimating and correcting multicalibration under weak supervision with finite-sample guarantees.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift without assuming i.i.d. data.
problem Uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift in non-i.i.d. settings.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and post-hoc binning for distribution-free UQ, and reweights these methods for label shift.
result The reweighted methods improve UQ performance under label shift, preserving coverage and calibration.
Improves reliability of medical diagnosis uncertainty estimates.
problem Label uncertainty in medical diagnosis.
method Post-hoc alpha-calibration method for neural network classifiers. result Significantly enhances reliability of uncertainty estimates.
New method calibrates probabilistic regression models without restrictive assumptions.
problem Ensuring predictive distributions accurately reflect true uncertainty.
method Nonparametric re-calibration algorithm based on conditional kernel mean embeddings.
result Consistently outperforms prior re-calibration approaches across various benchmarks.
Unified calibration metrics improve forecast sharpness and accuracy.
problem Improving the sharpness of probabilistic forecasts while maintaining calibration.
method Kernel-based calibration metrics that unify and generalize existing methods for classification and regression.
result Enhanced calibration, sharpness, and decision-making across various tasks.
Mix-n-Match improves uncertainty calibration in deep learning.
problem Post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers.
method Ensemble and composition strategies to improve accuracy, efficiency, and expressive power.
result Mix-n-Match strategies achieve better data-efficiency and expressive power while maintaining classification accuracy.
Isotonic regression binning affects calibration statistics of machine learning models.
problem Isotonic regression binning introduces aleatoric uncertainty in calibration statistics.
method Calibration error statistics are recalibrated using isotonic regression, which produces stratified uncertainties.
result Stratified uncertainties lead to significant differences in bin-based calibration statistics.
New bin-wise scaling methods improve prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning.
problem Improving prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning regression.
method Adaptations of Binwise Variance Scaling (BVS) with alternative loss functions and feature-based binning.
result Improved adaptivity and consistency in prediction uncertainty calibration.
SPACR trains uncertainty-aware regressors directly within a single pass, improving efficiency and validity.
problem Training uncertainty-aware regressors while maintaining efficiency and validity.
method Joint optimization of efficiency and validity during training.
result SPACR consistently provides tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR.
Survey on assessing and improving classifier calibration for better decision making.
problem Ensuring classifiers correctly quantify prediction uncertainty.
method Overview of principles, methods, and evaluation metrics for calibration.
result New methods and extensions from binary to multiclass settings.
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
New ML methods improve physical system understanding by quantifying uncertainty across diverse regimes.
problem Capturing multi-regime physical systems with standard ML techniques.
method Coverage-oriented uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods.
result Coverage-oriented UQ models deliver physically consistent uncertainty estimates.
The paper decomposes probabilistic scores into reliability, uncertainty, and information loss.
problem Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of probabilistic predictions.
method Developed decomposition identities for proper losses, quantifying reliability, residual uncertainty, and information gain.
result A three-term identity for classification scores, revealing miscalibration, grouping term, and feature-level uncertainty.
Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification
problem Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty for complex models
method Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty
result Asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification, recovers robust sandwich covariance under misspecification
GEBM improves uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
problem Challenges in quantifying epistemic uncertainty in graph neural networks.
method Energy-based model (EBM) that aggregates uncertainty at different structural levels.
result Significantly improves predictive robustness and achieves best separation of in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.
PE-GQNN improves spatial data prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Poor calibration of predictive distributions in spatial data models.
method Combines PE-GNNs with Quantile Neural Networks and recalibration techniques.
result PE-GQNN outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
New method for neural network uncertainty quantification using empirical Neural Tangent Kernel.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Post-hoc, sampling-based approach using gradient-descent on linearized networks.
result Method effectively approximates Gaussian process posterior and outperforms existing methods in efficiency and accuracy.
Deep learning framework predicts surface texture parameters and their uncertainties.
problem Predicting surface texture parameters and their uncertainties from multi-instrument datasets.
method Reproducible deep learning framework using multi-instrument dataset, quantile and heteroscedastic heads for uncertainty modeling, and post-hoc conformal calibration.
result High fidelity predictions (R2: Ra 0.9824, Rz 0.9847, RONt 0.9918) and well-modelled uncertainty targets (Ra_uncert 0.9899, Rz_uncert 0.9955).
Twin-Boot integrates uncertainty estimation into optimization using parallel training of identical models.
problem Uncertainty in overparameterized models, especially in low-data regimes.
method Twin-Bootstrap Gradient Descent (Twin-Boot) trains two identical models on independent bootstrap samples and uses their divergence to guide learning.
result Improves calibration and generalization, yields interpretable uncertainty maps.
Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying uncertainty is especially critical in real-world settings, which often involve …
Bayesian neural networks outperform calibrated neural networks for tabular data.
problem Uncertainty in neural network predictions for tabular data.
method Bayesian neural networks vs. post-hoc calibration methods.
result Bayesian neural networks yield competitive performance compared to calibrated neural networks.
Framework evaluates post-hoc interpretability methods in time-series classification.
problem Lack of suitable post-hoc interpretability methods for time-series classification.
method Proposes a framework with quantitative metrics to assess interpretability methods.
result Addresses several drawbacks of existing methods, including dependence on human judgement and data distribution shift.
We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to make unbiased weight updates to a variance network. Further, we formulate a heurist…
Study improves neural network calibration for drug discovery.
problem Improper calibration of neural network predictions in drug discovery.
method Compared different metrics for model hyperparameter tuning and proposed Bayesian Linear Probing (BLP) method.
result Bayesian Linear Probing (BLP) improves model calibration and accuracy.
Mathematical study shows post-hoc explanations are better than attention weights alone.
problem Understanding the internal behavior of attention-based models.
method Mathematical analysis of a simple attention-based architecture.
result Post-hoc explanations provide more useful insights than attention weights alone.
Bayesian VAR model discovers Granger causality with uncertainty-aware binary graphs.
problem Discovering Granger causal relations from multivariate time-series data.
method Bayesian Vector AutoRegression with factorised Granger-Causal Graphs.
result Our method achieves better performance, especially in low-data regimes.
CalArena benchmarks post-hoc calibration methods across various tasks.
problem Inconsistent evaluations of post-hoc calibration methods.
method Large-scale benchmark with 2000 experiments, covering diverse models and settings.
result Smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches.
OrthoGrad improves neural calibration by constraining gradient updates orthogonally.
problem Overconfidence in neural networks, leading to poor uncertainty estimates.
method Orthogonal gradient updates to optimize for decision boundaries and reduce overconfidence.
result Significant improvements in test loss, predictive entropy, and confidence measures.
Recent works have shown that most deep learning models are often poorly calibrated, i.e., they may produce overconfident predictions that are wrong. It is therefore desirable to have models that produce predictive uncertainty estimates that are reliable. Several approaches have been proposed recently to calibrate class…
We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of distribution calibration, and demonstrate its advantages over the existing defin…
Meta-Cal improves post-hoc calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving the accuracy of uncalibrated neural network predictions.
method Meta-Cal uses a base calibrator and a ranking model with constraints to provide high-probability bounds.
result Meta-Cal significantly outperforms existing methods in post-hoc multi-class classification calibration.
Framework uses hindsight regret to audit marketing budget allocations.
problem Lack of principled way to assess strategic budget allocations.
method Hindsight regret framework based on constraint-faithful benchmark.
result Identifies practical trade-off between allocation flexibility and detectability.
Post-processes deep networks with StoNet to quantify uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in predictions from large-scale deep neural networks.
method Feeds DNN output into StoNet, trains StoNet with sparse penalty, constructs prediction intervals.
result Proposed approach constructs honest confidence intervals with shorter lengths and better calibration.
A new method calibrates scientific models by adding randomness to their predictions.
problem Current scientific foundation models lack calibrated uncertainty.
method Stochastic Attention, which randomizes attention weights using multinomial samples.
result Stochastic Attention achieves the strongest native calibration and sharpest prediction intervals.