Building an open-domain conversational agent is a challenging problem. Current evaluation methods, mostly post-hoc judgments of static conversation, do not capture conversation quality in a realistic interactive context. In this paper, we investigate interactive human evaluation and provide evidence for its necessity; …
A new calibration metric bridges testability and actionability.
problem Combining testability and actionable insights for forecast probabilities.
method Cutoff Calibration Error (CCE) that assesses calibration over intervals of forecasted probabilities.
result Cutoff Calibration Error is both testable and actionable.
LUNA improves linear attention for long sequences without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Quadratic computational cost of softmax attention in long-sequence domains.
method LUNA learns a learnable kernel feature map to reduce attention cost to linear while maintaining accuracy.
result LUNA achieves state-of-the-art performance on the LRA and excels at post-hoc conversion.
Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
problem Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
method Empirical study and analysis of post-hoc transforms like temperature scaling, ensembling, and SWA.
result Post-hoc reversal can prevent double descent and mitigate mismatches between test loss and test error.
Post-hoc calibration improves uncertainty under domain shift.
problem Improving uncertainty calibration under domain shift.
method Apply perturbations to validation set before post-hoc calibration.
result Perturbation step results in better calibration under domain shift.
Framework evaluates post-hoc interpretability methods in time-series classification.
problem Lack of suitable post-hoc interpretability methods for time-series classification.
method Proposes a framework with quantitative metrics to assess interpretability methods.
result Addresses several drawbacks of existing methods, including dependence on human judgement and data distribution shift.
Mathematical study shows post-hoc explanations are better than attention weights alone.
problem Understanding the internal behavior of attention-based models.
method Mathematical analysis of a simple attention-based architecture.
result Post-hoc explanations provide more useful insights than attention weights alone.
CalArena benchmarks post-hoc calibration methods across various tasks.
problem Inconsistent evaluations of post-hoc calibration methods.
method Large-scale benchmark with 2000 experiments, covering diverse models and settings.
result Smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches.
Meta-Cal improves post-hoc calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving the accuracy of uncalibrated neural network predictions.
method Meta-Cal uses a base calibrator and a ranking model with constraints to provide high-probability bounds.
result Meta-Cal significantly outperforms existing methods in post-hoc multi-class classification calibration.
Study post-hoc Learning to Defer using density-ratio losses.
problem Optimizing decision-making between models and experts.
method Density-ratio losses for post-hoc L2D scorers, derived from class-probability estimation.
result The approach recovers known results and introduces new connections to expert comparison and anomaly detection.
Post-hoc calibration of neural networks using g-Layers proves theoretical justification.
problem Ensuring the confidence of neural network decisions in real-world applications.
method Proves theoretical justification for post-hoc calibration methods by adding g-Layers and minimizing NLL.
result Proves that adding g-Layers and minimizing NLL can lead to a calibrated network.
End-to-end method improves neural network calibration during training.
problem Improving neural network calibration for regression problems.
method Quantile Recalibration Training integrates post-hoc calibration into model training.
result Improved predictive accuracy and calibration in a large-scale experiment.
A post-hoc framework improves model performance by calibrating different feature spaces.
problem Improving AUC performance on binary classification tasks for overconfident models.
method Identifies heterogeneous partitions of the feature space and applies post-hoc calibration techniques to each partition.
result Theoretical optimality of the framework for any model, demonstrated on deep neural networks.
Counterfactual post-hoc interpretability approaches have been proven to be useful tools to generate explanations for the predictions of a trained blackbox classifier. However, the assumptions they make about the data and the classifier make them unreliable in many contexts. In this paper, we discuss three desirable pro…
While statistics and machine learning offers numerous methods for ensuring generalization, these methods often fail in the presence of adaptivity---the common practice in which the choice of analysis depends on previous interactions with the same dataset. A recent line of work has introduced powerful, general purpose a…
New method calibrates deep networks by preserving top-k predictions.
problem Calibrated confidence scores for multi-class deep networks to avoid rare mistakes.
method Intra order-preserving functions combined with neural network architecture.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in evaluation metrics.
Post-hoc explanations improve CNNs by replacing final linear layer with k-means classifier.
problem CNNs lack accurate data representation in their built-in prototypes.
method Introduces k-means-based post-hoc explanations for CNNs, leveraging spatial consistency of convolutional receptive fields.
result Using shallower, less compressed feature activations improves semantic fidelity at the cost of slight predictive performance.
A novel post-hoc calibration method reduces neural network calibration errors.
problem Neural networks produce poorly calibrated probabilities, leading to underconfidence and overconfidence.
method Probability bounding (PB) via box-constrained softmax (BCSoftmax) function.
result Consistently reduces calibration errors on four real-world datasets.
TaylorPODA uses Taylor expansions to improve feature attributions for opaque models.
problem Lack of systematic framework for quantifying feature contributions in opaque models.
method Taylor expansion framework with postulates (precision, federation, zero-discrepancy, adaptation).
result TaylorPODA achieves competitive results and provides principled explanations.
Post-hoc model-agnostic interpretation methods such as partial dependence plots can be employed to interpret complex machine learning models. While these interpretation methods can be applied regardless of model complexity, they can produce misleading and verbose results if the model is too complex, especially w.r.t. f…
Post-detection analysis identifies responsible coordinates for multivariate change-points.
problem Identifying which coordinates in multivariate time series change after a detected change-point.
method Two-sample testing procedures with nonparametric tests for Type I error control.
result Strong performance of proposed post hoc statistical procedures.
Conformal Bayes under label shift: post-hoc calibration vs. in-training adaptation
problem Bayesian prediction sets under label shift
method Post-hoc calibration vs. In-training adaptation
result Both strategies achieve valid coverage equally in an unbiased training regime
EAGLE improves reproducibility and stability of model explanations.
problem Creating reliable explanations for opaque machine learning models.
method Formulates perturbation selection as an information-theoretic active learning problem.
result EAGLE learns a linear surrogate model with feature importance scores and uncertainty estimates.
New asymptotic e-values improve inference by eliminating data-dependent scaling inefficiency.
problem Data-dependent scaling inefficiency in existing asymptotic e-values.
method Drawing on Bentkus's near-optimal concentration inequalities, introduce Bentkus-type asymptotic e-values.
result Bentkus-type asymptotic e-values consistently deliver sharper inference than existing alternatives.
Post-hoc uncertainty quantification improves on pre-trained neural networks without underfitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks is underfitting or computationally demanding.
method Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) for neuron-level uncertainty, with two methods: GAPA-Free and GAPA-Variational.
result GAPA-Variational outperforms Laplace approximation on most datasets in uncertainty quantification metrics.
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
We describe a post hoc test for the Sharpe ratio, analogous to Tukey's test for pairwise equality of means. The test can be applied after rejection of the hypothesis that all population Signal-Noise ratios are equal. The test is applicable under a simple correlation structure among asset returns. Simulations indicate t…
New method calibrates neural network predictions for better reliability.
problem Improper probability estimates from deep networks leading to unreliable predictions.
method Proposes a constrained optimization approach for a monotonic calibration map.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance across various datasets and models.
Two approaches improve conformal Bayes for label shift, one post-hoc and one in-training.
problem Improving prediction sets for target domain under label shift.
method Two complementary approaches: post-hoc calibration and in-training adaptation.
result In-training adaptation achieves up to 43% width reduction at unchanged coverage.
Combines Laplace approximations of deep networks for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Overconfident predictions on outliers in deep learning models.
method Gaussian mixture model posterior using weighted sum of Laplace approximations of pre-trained deep networks.
result Mitigates overconfidence 'far away' from training data.
Enhances deep neural networks with fixed-mean Gaussian processes for uncertainty estimation.
problem Post-hoc uncertainty estimation of pre-trained deep neural networks.
method Fixed-mean Gaussian processes with variational inference for efficient stochastic optimization.
result FMGP improves uncertainty estimation and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
The paper explores how model complexity affects OOD detection performance.
problem Ensuring reliability and safety of machine learning systems through OOD detection.
method Investigates the relationship between model capacity and OOD detection performance using empirical and theoretical analysis.
result The Double Descent phenomenon is observed in post-hoc OOD detection, indicating that overparameterization can enhance OOD detection.
New sampling strategy preserves relationships in multivariate scientific data.
problem Reducing storage and enabling efficient multivariate analyses on large scientific data.
method Uses principal component analysis for multivariate data and combines with existing univariate sampling algorithms.
result Efficacy demonstrated on real-world data sets, showing data reduction and multivariate analysis ease.
Unified calibration metrics improve forecast sharpness and accuracy.
problem Improving the sharpness of probabilistic forecasts while maintaining calibration.
method Kernel-based calibration metrics that unify and generalize existing methods for classification and regression.
result Enhanced calibration, sharpness, and decision-making across various tasks.
This work proves L2-regularized ERM controls smCE without post-hoc correction.
problem Calibration of predicted probabilities in machine learning models.
method Canonical L2-regularized empirical risk minimization. result Theoretical proof that smCE is controlled by ERM without post-hoc correction.
Study examines cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms, finding negative relationships with profitability and size.
problem Understanding cash conversion cycle in manufacturing firms and its impact on profitability and size.
method Empirical study of 30 manufacturing firms in Dhaka Stock Exchanges, categorizing them into six industries, analyzing industry averages and relationships with size and profitability.
result Negative relationship between cash conversion cycle and profitability, especially ROE; negative relationship with firm size in terms of net sales.
FasterVoiceGrad speeds up VC by 6-7x with novel distillation.
problem Slow iterative sampling in diffusion-based VC models.
method Adversarial diffusion conversion distillation (ADCD) to create a faster one-step model.
result 6.6-6.9 and 1.8x faster on GPU and CPU, respectively.
We propose a flexible framework that deals with both singer conversion and singers vocal technique conversion. The proposed model is trained on non-parallel corpora, accommodates many-to-many conversion, and leverages recent advances of variational autoencoders. It employs separate encoders to learn disentangled latent…
Geometric method improves uncertainty estimation in real-time.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Geometric distance from training inputs for uncertainty estimation, post-hoc calibration.
result Method yields better uncertainty estimations than existing approaches.
A new bias score method optimizes fairness in classification.
problem Ensuring fairness in binary classification under group constraints.
method Introducing bias scores and developing a post-hoc approach to adapt to fairness constraints.
result The method maintains high accuracy while ensuring fairness constraints.
Conversion prediction plays an important role in online advertising since Cost-Per-Action (CPA) has become one of the primary campaign performance objectives in the industry. Unlike click prediction, conversions have different types in nature, and each type may be associated with different decisive factors. In this pap…
A new framework separates classifier calibration and discrimination.
problem Combining reliability and resolution in probabilistic predictions.
method Manokhin Probability Matrix separates reliability and resolution using Spiegelhalter Z-statistic and AUC-ROC.
result Classifiers are categorized into four archetypes: Eagle, Bull, Sloth, and Mole.
Proposes h-calibration for improving miscalibrated probability outputs of neural networks.
problem Improving reliability of probability outputs from neural networks.
method Probabilistic learning framework for calibration, including a simple yet effective post-hoc algorithm.
result Significantly better performance than traditional methods, validated by experiments.
The optimal approach is to theorize after examining data, not before.
problem Optimal sequencing of theory and empirical analysis for economic questions.
method Formalized a Bayesian model to trade off Darwinian and Statistical Learning.
result Post hoc theorizing is typically optimal in modern economics.
Unified approach for multicalibration in weakly supervised learning.
problem Existing multicalibration methods require clean input-label pairs, which are unavailable in weakly supervised learning.
method Developed estimators and post-hoc correction methods for multicalibration under weak supervision.
result Unified framework for estimating and correcting multicalibration under weak supervision with finite-sample guarantees.
FedConPE improves conversational recommender systems efficiency and privacy.
problem Efficiently eliciting user preferences in interactive systems with heterogeneous clients.
method Phase elimination-based federated conversational bandit algorithm with adaptive key term construction.
result Minimizes uncertainty across all dimensions in feature space and offers improved efficiency and privacy.
New methods for distributed CP improve reliability in healthcare.
problem Post-hoc calibration of models in safety-critical domains.
method Quantile-based and histogram-based distributed conformal prediction via message passing.
result Improved reliability and coverage guarantees in decentralized settings.
As machine learning black boxes are increasingly being deployed in domains such as healthcare and criminal justice, there is growing emphasis on building tools and techniques for explaining these black boxes in an interpretable manner. Such explanations are being leveraged by domain experts to diagnose systematic error…