This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.
problem Estimating causal effects in a target population.
method Synthesis of approaches for generalizability and transportability, including tests for heterogeneity of treatment effects and differences between study and target populations.
result Framework for addressing external validity bias in causal inference.
Estimates personalized policies robust to shifts in target populations.
problem Estimating policies that perform well in diverse target populations.
method Develops methods for estimating robust policies considering shifts in outcomes and characteristics.
result Welfare-maximizing policies are robust to certain shifts in potential outcomes.
Combines trial and observational data to improve policy evaluation.
problem External validity of randomized trial results in target populations.
method Uses covariate data to model trial sampling and certifies policy evaluations.
result Valid trial-based policy evaluations under model miscalibration.
Efficiently estimates variable importance in prediction tasks using Shapley values.
problem Valid statistical inference on the importance of variables in prediction tasks.
method Randomly sampling feature subsets to estimate Shapley Population Variable Importance Measure (SPVIM) efficiently.
result The proposed estimator converges at an asymptotically optimal rate and can construct valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests.
LEARNER improves low-rank matrix estimation using source population data.
problem Improving low-rank matrix estimation in target populations with diverse data sources.
method LEARNER uses similarity in latent spaces between source and target populations to enhance estimation.
result LEARNER often outperforms benchmark methods, especially with higher signal-to-noise ratios in the source population.
The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.
problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.
SaML guides ML models to avoid survey biases.
problem ML models trained on survey data often ignore survey design metadata.
method Nine-step guideline for incorporating survey design metadata in ML lifecycle.
result SaML provides valid population inference from survey data.
In order to investigate the breast cancer prediction problem on the aging population with the grades of DCIS, we conduct a tree augmented naive Bayesian network experiment trained and tested on a large clinical dataset including consecutive diagnostic mammography examinations, consequent biopsy outcomes and related can…
Estimates causal effect of managed care plans on NYC Medicaid spending.
problem Generalizing causal estimates to a target population not well-represented by randomized studies.
method Conditional cross-design synthesis estimators combining randomized and observational data.
result Estimates causal effect of managed care plans on health care spending.
New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.
problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.
Framework generates precise synthetic populations for scalable modeling.
problem Generating accurate synthetic populations without personal data.
method Constraint-programming framework encoding aggregated statistics and structural relations.
result Exact control of demographic profiles without requiring microdata.
The paper offers guidelines for validating data-driven models.
problem Ensuring reliable validation of data-driven models.
method A set of general rules for model validation.
result Helps practitioners create reliable validation plans and report results transparently.
Proposes a federated transfer learning method to improve precision medicine models for underrepresented populations.
problem Underrepresentation of minorities in precision medicine research leads to underperforming risk prediction models.
method Two-way federated transfer learning strategy integrating diverse populations and healthcare institutions.
result Improves risk prediction models for underrepresented populations, reducing performance gaps.
Given samples from a distribution, how many new elements should we expect to find if we continue sampling this distribution? This is an important and actively studied problem, with many applications ranging from unseen species estimation to genomics. We generalize this extrapolation and related unseen estimation proble…
This paper proposes deep generative models to predict rare feature combinations in population synthesis.
problem Estimating rare combinations of feature attributes in multivariate distributions.
method Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and Variational Autoencoder (VAE) adapted for large-scale population synthesis.
result The models effectively recover sampling zeros while keeping structural zeros low, improving upon existing methods.
Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed that population growth can become superexponential due to the superlinear scalin…
The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.
Optimal data splitting improves covariance matrix estimation in large datasets.
problem Improving large covariance matrix estimation in high-dimensional settings.
method Focus on holdout method, derive closed-form error expression, connect to eigenvalue variance.
result Optimal train-test split scales as square root of matrix dimension.
Robust RL improves controller robustness to dynamics variations using adversarial populations.
problem Robustness issues in RL when dynamics are perturbed.
method Adversarial population augmentation to the Robust RL formulation.
result Population-based adversarial approach yields more robust and generalizable policies.
Optimizes sampling in continuous domains by adjusting search distribution.
problem Improving sampling efficiency in continuous domains.
method Analyzes and refines the search distribution based on population size and dimension.
result Explicit values for reshaping the search distribution are provided.
The paper presents a method to make predictions robust to distributional shifts.
problem Making predictions robust to distributional shifts in machine learning.
method The method uses prediction sets and conformal inference to provide valid coverage under shifts.
result The method achieves nearly valid coverage in finite samples under exchangeable training data.
Analyzes how bias evolves in SGD training across different data sub-populations.
problem Understanding bias formation during machine learning training.
method Analytical description of SGD dynamics in a teacher-student setup with Gaussian-mixture model.
result Different sub-populations influence bias at different timescales, revealing shifting classifier preferences.
New algorithm balances personalization and statistical validity in MRTs.
problem Optimizing decisions in nonstationary settings with habituation and recovery.
method ROGUE-TS Thompson Sampling with probability clipping.
result Achieves lower regret and maintains high statistical power.
The paper provides a method to find optimal machine learning model parameters with confidence.
problem Finding optimal machine learning model parameters that generalize well to the entire population.
method Constructs valid confidence sets for the optimal parameter using only training data.
result Valid confidence sets for optimal machine learning model parameters can be generated using bootstrapping techniques.
Model captures context-dependent neural correlations using Poisson mixtures.
problem Capturing context-dependent noise correlations in neural populations.
method Conditional finite mixtures of Poisson distributions, cross-validation for dimensionality, EM algorithm.
result Model successfully captures stimulus-dependent correlations in V1 neuron responses.
Novel approach for robust domain generalization in health studies.
problem Challenges in making statistical inferences about underrepresented minority groups.
method Structured tensor completion for multi-dimensional domain generalization in linear regression models.
result Established rigorous theoretical guarantees and demonstrated minimax optimality.
Syntax designs adaptive trials for subpopulations with potential benefits.
problem Identifying subpopulations with positive treatment effects in diverse patient populations.
method Adaptive patient recruitment and synthetic control estimation.
result Syntax outperforms conventional trial designs in identifying beneficial subpopulations.
Novel strategy benchmarks observational studies against randomized trials.
problem Benchmarking observational studies for treatment effect bias.
method Statistical test for null hypothesis of treatment effect difference.
result Valid lower bound on maximum bias strength for any subgroup.
The study examines how to assess skill when outcomes are noisy and insufficient.
problem Determining skill when outcomes are unreliable and insufficiently numerous.
method Characterizes decision domains with noise and effective sample size, using population-level validation methods.
result Domains with noisy outcomes are unreliable for individual skill assessment.
The paper reveals a spinning top geometry in real-world games.
problem Understanding the structure of real-world games.
method Developed a spinning top geometric model and used Nash clustering.
result Real-world games exhibit a spinning top structure with transitive and non-transitive dimensions.
FAQ efficiently evaluates LLMs with statistical guarantees using adaptive query selection.
problem Efficiently evaluating many LLMs on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive.
method FAQ uses Bayesian factor models, adaptive sampling, and proactive active inference to select queries.
result FAQ delivers up to 5x effective sample size gains over baselines, matching CI width with fewer queries.
A semiparametric test evaluates instrument validity and complier characteristics.
problem Evaluating the validity of instruments and complier characteristics.
method Semiparametric test, doubly robust moment, machine learning update.
result Validates instrument validity and complier characteristics.
When governed by underlying low-dimensional dynamics, the interdependence of simultaneously recorded population of neurons can be explained by a small number of shared factors, or a low-dimensional trajectory. Recovering these latent trajectories, particularly from single-trial population recordings, may help us unders…
Efficiently audits model fairness with continuous monitoring and flexible data collection.
problem Continuous monitoring and flexible data collection for fairness auditing.
method Sequential, anytime-valid inference and game-theoretic statistics.
result Demonstrated efficacy on three fairness datasets.
In neuroimaging data analysis, Gaussian graphical models are often used to model statistical dependencies across spatially remote brain regions known as functional connectivity. Typically, data is collected across a cohort of subjects and the scientific objectives consist of estimating population and subject-specific g…
A fast bootstrap method estimates cross-validation standard error.
problem Uncertainty quantification in cross-validation estimates.
method Random-effects model to estimate variance component.
result Valid confidence intervals for model performance.
Estimating the largest community in a mixed population via sequential sampling.
problem Identifying the largest community in a mixed population with limited sampling.
method Sequential, random sampling of individuals across multiple boxes, optimizing sampling strategy and decision rule.
result Proposed algorithms achieve optimal error probability decay rates under fixed budget constraints.
The paper develops methods to identify stable associations across multiple studies.
problem Identifying stable associations across multiple studies with possible distributional shifts.
method Modeling heterogeneous multi-source data with multiple high-dimensional regressions and devising a novel sampling method for valid confidence intervals of maximin effects.
result Significant maximin effects indicate stable associations that can be generalized to target populations.
New criterion assesses cluster separability for validation.
problem Validating cluster analysis results and determining the number of clusters.
method Distinguishability criterion, combined loss function-based framework.
result Validated cluster configurations and determined the number of clusters.
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.
Cross-validation estimates model performance on unseen data, not training data.
problem Understanding how cross-validation estimates prediction error and its limitations.
method Analyzing linear models and popular prediction error estimates, introducing nested cross-validation.
result Cross-validation estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets, not the model at hand.
RECaST calibrates source models for target populations with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in transfer learning predictions.
method Random effect calibration of source to target models.
result Nominal coverage of prediction sets in linear models, robust to nonlinear approximations.
Study on testing two populations with confounders.
problem Determining if two populations have the same distribution after accounting for confounding factors.
method Introduce two general frameworks for conditional two-sample testing.
result Demonstrated the power and validity of the proposed frameworks.
Develops certificates for local population-risk increments using cross-fitted ridge calibration.
problem Certifying local population-risk increments in statistical models.
method Cross-fitted ridge calibration for linear feature classes, separating Taylor fluctuations and remainders.
result Certifies measurable updates from the same sample with penalties dependent on empirical geometry.
Framework for online resource allocation using social welfare functions.
problem Optimal allocation of resources over time steps in a population.
method Confidence sequence framework for SWF-based online learning and inference, valid for any monotonic, concave, and Lipschitz-continuous SWF.
result Achieves near-optimal regret of i l d e O ( n + n k T ) ilde{O}(n+\sqrt{nkT}) i l d e O ( n + nk T ) for SWF-agnostic algorithm SWF-UCB. Method improves robustness and generalizability of CATE estimation.
problem Lack of external validity in site-specific models for diverse populations.
method Minimax-regret framework with robust optimization.
result Interpretable closed-form solution for generalizable CATE model.
New method finds minimum in noisy data, useful for model selection.
problem Finding the index of the minimum value in noisy observations.
method Developed an asymptotically normal test statistic integrating cross-validation and differential privacy.
result Achieves a favorable bias-variance trade-off in practical scenarios.
Develops asymptotic theory for deep Cox models to enable valid inference.
problem Theoretical gaps in deep neural network estimators for Cox models.
method Asymptotic distribution theory linking in-sample optimization error to population risk.
result Pointwise and multivariate asymptotic normality for subsampled ensemble estimators.