Consider the problem of finding a population or a probability distribution amongst many with the largest mean when these means are unknown but population samples can be simulated or otherwise generated. Typically, by selecting largest sample mean population, it can be shown that false selection probability decays at an…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “population guarantees”
NeuPL learns diverse policies in strategy games efficiently.
problem Iterative training of policies in strategy games leads to under-trained good-responses and wasteful repetition.
method NeuPL uses a single conditional model to represent a population of policies, offering convergence guarantees and transfer learning.
result NeuPL achieves better performance and efficiency across various domains, enabling access to novel strategies.
Develops robust learning methods for datasets with sub-populations.
problem Robust performance and generalization to unseen testing populations in datasets with sub-populations.
method Min-max-regret (MMR) formulation for distribution-free robust hierarchical model.
result Empirical MMR enjoys regret guarantees on training and unseen testing populations.
Improved online prediction with guaranteed coverage.
problem Creating reliable online predictions for arbitrary sequences.
method Online conformal prediction with decaying step sizes.
result Substantially improved practical properties, including close coverage at every time point.
In this paper we model the problem of learning preferences of a population as an active learning problem. We propose an algorithm can adaptively choose pairs of items to show to users coming from a heterogeneous population, and use the obtained reward to decide which pair of items to show next. We provide computational…
Policy mirror ascent achieves Nash equilibrium in mean field games without a population generative model.
problem Achieving Nash equilibrium in mean field games without a population generative model.
method Policy mirror ascent, contractive operator, single-path TD learning.
result Policy mirror ascent converges to Nash equilibrium within samples.
We develop a general framework for proving rigorous guarantees on the performance of the EM algorithm and a variant known as gradient EM. Our analysis is divided into two parts: a treatment of these algorithms at the population level (in the limit of infinite data), followed by results that apply to updates based on a …
New method learns population dynamics from snapshots using JKO scheme and inverse optimization.
problem Recovering underlying process governing particle evolution from discrete time samples.
method Combines JKO scheme with inverse optimization techniques for end-to-end adversarial training.
result Improved performance over prior JKO-based methods with theoretical guarantees.
This study improves audit sampling by using sequential procedures with statistical guarantees.
problem Improving audit efficiency and reliability with statistical methods.
method Formulated as a sequential testing problem, defining null and alternative hypotheses, stopping and decision rules, and exact boundary conditions.
result Exact design yields ex ante control of decision error probabilities, and simulation-based implementation approximates this design.
Gradient descent learns a single neuron without knowing the relationship between inputs and labels.
problem Learning a single neuron without knowing the relationship between inputs and labels.
method Using gradient descent to minimize empirical risk over i.i.d. samples, with a nonconvex and nonsmooth optimization problem.
result Gradient descent achieves near-optimal population risk in polynomial time and sample complexity.
We propose a population-based Evolutionary Stochastic Gradient Descent (ESGD) framework for optimizing deep neural networks. ESGD combines SGD and gradient-free evolutionary algorithms as complementary algorithms in one framework in which the optimization alternates between the SGD step and evolution step to improve th…
Boosting framework for vector-valued prediction with geometric stability.
problem Lack of a general theoretical understanding of aggregation for structured prediction.
method Identifies -stability property and proposes a boosting framework based on exponential reweighting and geometric-median aggregation.
result Obtains exponential decay of empirical divergence error under weak learner condition and -stability.
A Distance Covariance-based Kernel for Nonlinear Causal Clustering in Heterogeneous Populationsstat.ML
Kernel measures similarity of nonlinear causal structures in heterogeneous populations.
problem Learning causal structure in populations with diverse underlying structures.
method Distance covariance-based kernel for measuring similarity of causal structures.
result Kernel enables clustering of homogeneous subpopulations for causal structure learning.
Recent studies on fairness in automated decision making systems have both investigated the potential future impact of these decisions on the population at large, and emphasized that imposing ''typical'' fairness constraints such as demographic parity or equality of opportunity does not guarantee a benefit to disadvanta…
New framework for DP-SMO with near-optimal privacy-loss trade-off.
problem Optimal trade-off between privacy and population loss in DP-SMO.
method General framework using Phased-ERM method and black-box optimization.
result Near-linear time algorithms with near-optimal guarantees.
The paper learns pose variations within shape populations using constrained mixtures of factor analyzers.
problem Learning pose variations within a shape population with articulated parts and relative rotations.
method Formulated as mixtures of factor analyzers, segmentation by component posterior probabilities, and constraints on factor loading matrices for rotation matrices.
result Automatic learning of pose variations from shape populations, resulting in smooth and realistic animations.
Paper extends conformal prediction to complex survey data.
problem Applying distribution-free prediction intervals to complex survey data.
method Design-based conformal prediction for non-exchangeable data.
result Empirical guarantees of finite-sample coverage for complex survey data.
We study methods for improving fairness to subgroups in settings with overlapping populations and sequential predictions. Classical notions of fairness focus on the balance of some property across different populations. However, in many applications the goal of the different groups is not to be predicted equally but ra…
We investigate the problems of identity and closeness testing over a discrete population from random samples. Our goal is to develop efficient testers while guaranteeing Differential Privacy to the individuals of the population. We describe an approach that yields sample-efficient differentially private testers for the…
Novel approach for robust domain generalization in health studies.
problem Challenges in making statistical inferences about underrepresented minority groups.
method Structured tensor completion for multi-dimensional domain generalization in linear regression models.
result Established rigorous theoretical guarantees and demonstrated minimax optimality.
Study merges datasets to improve AI model performance.
problem Improving machine learning models with diverse datasets.
method Developed an algorithm using oracle inequality and data-driven estimators.
result Algorithm reduces population loss with high probability.
New algorithm for efficient inference over tree-structured graphs.
problem Inference over probabilistic graphical models with aggregate data.
method Optimal transport theory, Sinkhorn/iterative scaling algorithm, belief propagation.
result Global convergence and polynomial computational complexity.
This research provides theoretical guarantees for hyperparameter estimation in complex network dynamical systems.
problem Theoretical guarantees for hyperparameter estimation in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems.
method Formulating the system's evolution in a measure transport perspective, proposing a theoretical framework for estimating hyperparameters with mean-type observations.
result A nonasymptotic bound for the deviation of hyperparameter estimates in inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems with respect to network population size.
Many of the recent triumphs in machine learning are dependent on well-tuned hyperparameters. This is particularly prominent in reinforcement learning (RL) where a small change in the configuration can lead to failure. Despite the importance of tuning hyperparameters, it remains expensive and is often done in a naive an…
A new algorithm reduces communication rounds for distributed convex optimization.
problem Efficiently solving convex optimization problems in distributed systems.
method Proposes a stochastic Newton algorithm for homogeneous distributed stochastic convex optimization.
result Reduces the number and frequency of communication rounds compared to existing methods.
FAQ efficiently evaluates LLMs with statistical guarantees using adaptive query selection.
problem Efficiently evaluating many LLMs on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive.
method FAQ uses Bayesian factor models, adaptive sampling, and proactive active inference to select queries.
result FAQ delivers up to 5x effective sample size gains over baselines, matching CI width with fewer queries.
Performative Learning Theorystat.ML
Study how predictions affect the data they're based on, improving generalization guarantees.
problem How well do models generalize when predictions influence the data they're trained on?
method Embed performative predictions into statistical learning theory and prove generalization bounds.
result There's a fundamental trade-off between affecting data and learning from it.
Novel imputation method for EHRs with structured and sporadic missingness.
problem Missing data in integrated EHR datasets for clinical applications.
method Macomss, a novel imputation framework for structurally and heterogeneously missing data.
result Macomss outperforms existing methods in imputation and downstream prediction accuracy.
This work aims to provide understandings on the remarkable success of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) by theoretically analyzing their generalization performance and establishing optimization guarantees for gradient descent based training algorithms. Specifically, for a CNN model consisting of convolution…
Transportability without Graphs: A Bayesian Approach to Identifying s-Admissible Backdoor Setsstat.ML
Bayesian method identifies causal sets across populations without graph knowledge.
problem Transporting causal information across populations without causal graph knowledge.
method Combines observational and experimental data to identify s-admissible backdoor sets.
result Proves asymptotic convergence and corrects transportability bias in simulations.
Combines cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms for better binary classification.
problem Asymmetric binary classification problems with unequal error severities.
method Develops TUBE-CS algorithm to bridge cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms.
result High-probability control of population type I error.
We provide non-asymptotic excess risk guarantees for statistical learning in a setting where the population risk with respect to which we evaluate the target parameter depends on an unknown nuisance parameter that must be estimated from data. We analyze a two-stage sample splitting meta-algorithm that takes as input ar…
Differential privacy comes equipped with multiple analytical tools for the design of private data analyses. One important tool is the so-called "privacy amplification by subsampling" principle, which ensures that a differentially private mechanism run on a random subsample of a population provides higher privacy guaran…
This work studies a stochastic optimal control problem for a pension scheme which provides an income-drawdown policy to its members after their retirement. To manage the scheme efficiently, the manager and members agree to share the investment risk based on a pre-decided risk-sharing rule. The objective is to maximise …
Semi-supervised EM improves convergence rate with labeled samples.
problem Improving convergence rate in EM algorithm with labeled and unlabeled data.
method Analysis of semi-supervised EM algorithm for Gaussian mixture models.
result Labeled samples significantly improve the convergence rate for the EM algorithm.
This work establishes uniform convergence of subdifferentials in stochastic optimization.
problem Understanding how empirical stationary points approximate population ones in nonsmooth, nonconvex stochastic optimization.
method Reduction principle for weakly convex stochastic objectives, focusing on subgradient convergence.
result Sharp uniform convergence rates for subdifferential mappings in stochastic convex-composite optimization.
aLTT selects hyperparameters efficiently with statistical guarantees.
problem Statistical validity and efficiency in hyperparameter selection.
method Sequential data-dependent multiple hypothesis testing with early termination.
result Reduces testing rounds while maintaining statistical validity.
Neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples and researchers have proposed many heuristic attack and defense mechanisms. We address this problem through the principled lens of distributionally robust optimization, which guarantees performance under adversarial input perturbations. By considering a Lagrangian …
This paper studies the landscape of empirical risk of deep neural networks by theoretically analyzing its convergence behavior to the population risk as well as its stationary points and properties. For an -layer linear neural network, we prove its empirical risk uniformly converges to its population risk at the rat…
Proposes FedPop for personalised federated learning with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and client drift in personalised federated learning.
method FedPop recasts FL into population modeling with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
result Non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for uncertainty quantification.
We lay theoretical foundations for new database release mechanisms that allow third-parties to construct consistent estimators of population statistics, while ensuring that the privacy of each individual contributing to the database is protected. The proposed framework rests on two main ideas. First, releasing (an esti…
Audited Conformal Prediction improves conditional coverage in pretrained models under distribution shift.
problem Uncertainty quantification for pretrained models under unknown distribution shift
method Leverages a small labeled dataset to train an audit model for marginal coverage, integrates outputs into conformal prediction framework
result Significantly higher conditional coverage than existing approaches
Gradient Importance Samplingstat.ML
Adaptive Monte Carlo schemes developed over the last years usually seek to ensure ergodicity of the sampling process in line with MCMC tradition. This poses constraints on what is possible in terms of adaptation. In the general case ergodicity can only be guaranteed if adaptation is diminished at a certain rate. Import…
The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.
problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.
Population risk is always of primary interest in machine learning; however, learning algorithms only have access to the empirical risk. Even for applications with nonconvex nonsmooth losses (such as modern deep networks), the population risk is generally significantly more well-behaved from an optimization point of vie…
The paper provides guarantees for clustering validity without distributional assumptions.
problem Validating clustering results without distributional assumptions.
method Generic method to obtain post-inference guarantees of near-optimality and stability for clustering.
result The guarantees do not depend on distributional assumptions but depend on the data set admitting a stable clustering.
The classical asymptotic theory for parametric -estimators guarantees that, in the limit of infinite sample size, the excess risk has a chi-square type distribution, even in the misspecified case. We demonstrate how self-concordance of the loss allows to characterize the critical sample size sufficient to guarantee …
In stochastic optimization, the population risk is generally approximated by the empirical risk. However, in the large-scale setting, minimization of the empirical risk may be computationally restrictive. In this paper, we design an efficient algorithm to approximate the population risk minimizer in generalized linear …