A new data set helps estimate continental-scale population distributions.
problem Lack of comprehensive, publicly available data for population estimation.
method Comprehensive data set combining satellite imagery and open-source data.
result Provides a valuable resource for developing population estimation methods.
CTGAN synthesizes population data for travel behavior simulation.
problem Synthesizing population data for agent-based transportation modeling.
method Composite Travel Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN).
result Consistent and accurate generation of synthetic populations with tabular and sequential mobility data.
LEARNER improves low-rank matrix estimation using source population data.
problem Improving low-rank matrix estimation in target populations with diverse data sources.
method LEARNER uses similarity in latent spaces between source and target populations to enhance estimation.
result LEARNER often outperforms benchmark methods, especially with higher signal-to-noise ratios in the source population.
Proposes a federated transfer learning method to improve precision medicine models for underrepresented populations.
problem Underrepresentation of minorities in precision medicine research leads to underperforming risk prediction models.
method Two-way federated transfer learning strategy integrating diverse populations and healthcare institutions.
result Improves risk prediction models for underrepresented populations, reducing performance gaps.
Copula-based method generates synthetic populations from marginal distributions.
problem Generating realistic synthetic populations from limited data.
method Copula-based framework for population synthesis.
result Copula framework enhances transferability and realism of synthetic populations.
Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze strea…
Estimates Mozambique's population using remote sensing and microcensus data.
problem Lack of frequent population estimation due to censuses lacking spatio-temporal resolution.
method Combines remote sensing, microcensus data, and transfer learning with publicly available datasets.
result Population predictions improve with footprint area estimation using transfer learning.
A clustering method for multivariate populations with similar dependence structures.
problem Grouping populations with similar dependence structures.
method Orthogonal projection coefficients of density copulas estimated from populations.
result Clusters of populations with similar dependence structures.
A new method identifies sub-populations in unlabelled heterogeneous data by accounting for co-features.
problem Estimating sub-populations in unlabelled heterogeneous data with co-features.
method Mixture of Conditional Gaussian Graphical Models (CGGM) with penalized EM algorithm.
result The method successfully identifies sub-populations disrupted by co-features.
New method infers dynamical systems from population data.
problem Inferring dynamical systems from population data.
method Deducing and estimating Fokker-Planck equation, projecting to test functions, sparse inference.
result Induces driving forces of dynamical systems.
Model predicts urban population using mobile data traffic.
problem Estimating urban population dynamics from mobile data.
method Data-driven approach combining NetMob 2023 and ENACT datasets.
result NetMob 2023 data can estimate urban population with XGBoost models.
Framework improves policy generalizability under biased training data.
problem Learning policies that generalize to a target population from biased training data.
method Characterizes sample selection bias using a selection variable, optimizes minimax value over uncertainty set, derives efficient algorithm.
result Policies generalize to target population, outperform standard methods.
Participants enrolled into randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often do not reflect real-world populations. Previous research in how best to translate RCT results to target populations has focused on weighting RCT data to look like the target data. Simulation work, however, has suggested that an outcome model approach …
Bayesian networks learn sub-population differences from data.
problem Inference from a single network structure can be misleading when data populations are heterogeneous.
method A mixture of Bayesian networks where component probabilities depend on individual characteristics.
result Identifies both network structures and demographic predictors of sub-population membership.
Paper uses neural networks to calibrate Lee-Carter models for multiple populations.
problem Calibrating Lee-Carter models for multiple populations with neural networks.
method Developed neural network architectures to fit Lee-Carter and Poisson Lee-Carter models simultaneously.
result Smooth and less sensitive parameter estimates, improved forecasting performance.
New privacy-preserving learning model for mixtures of private and public data.
problem Learning from datasets with both private and public data, where privacy concerns differ.
method Designing a differential privacy-preserving learning algorithm for a mixture of private and public sub-populations.
result Linear classifiers can be learned with sample complexity comparable to non-private PAC-learning, even when privacy status correlates with labels.
Neurons in higher cortical areas, such as the prefrontal cortex, are known to be tuned to a variety of sensory and motor variables. The resulting diversity of neural tuning often obscures the represented information. Here we introduce a novel dimensionality reduction technique, demixed principal component analysis (dPC…
Estimates unknown population sizes using the hypergeometric distribution.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with unknown population sizes and category sizes.
method Proposes a novel solution using the hypergeometric likelihood, accounting for a data generating process with a latent variable.
result Empirically demonstrates superior performance in estimating population sizes and learning latent spaces compared to other methods.
New model estimates species population trends from citizen science data.
problem Interannual confounding in citizen science data.
method Double Machine Learning framework to estimate population change and propensity scores for confounding adjustment.
result Spatially detailed trend estimates from citizen science data with low error rates.
Unified approach to private statistics from empirical to population data.
problem Divided focus on empirical vs population statistics in private statistics.
method Unified methods for both types of statistics.
result Methods for empirical statistics can be applied to population statistics.
Framework generates precise synthetic populations for scalable modeling.
problem Generating accurate synthetic populations without personal data.
method Constraint-programming framework encoding aggregated statistics and structural relations.
result Exact control of demographic profiles without requiring microdata.
AICov integrates population covariates for better COVID-19 forecasting.
problem Forecasting COVID-19 with broader social context.
method Integrative deep learning framework with LSTM and multiple data sources.
result Improved prediction of COVID-19 cases and deaths with population risk factors.
New method pools labels from similar data items to improve learning from small samples.
problem Learning from small, human-annotated samples with potential disagreement among annotators.
method Proposes neighborhood-based pooling for sharing labels across similar data items.
result Improves learning from small, noisy samples by pooling labels from similar items.
Estimates personalized policies robust to shifts in target populations.
problem Estimating policies that perform well in diverse target populations.
method Develops methods for estimating robust policies considering shifts in outcomes and characteristics.
result Welfare-maximizing policies are robust to certain shifts in potential outcomes.
To understand how rich dynamics emerge in neural populations, we require models exhibiting a wide range of activity patterns while remaining interpretable in terms of connectivity and single-neuron dynamics. However, it has been challenging to fit such mechanistic spiking networks at the single neuron scale to empirica…
New methods resolve conflicting treatment effect estimates in health tech assessments.
problem Conflicting conclusions from different sponsors analyzing the same data.
method Arbitrated indirect treatment comparisons (ArMAIC) targeting a common target population.
result Estimates treatment effects in a common target population, resolving the MAIC paradox.
Develops a method to estimate personalized treatment regimes from summary statistics.
problem Estimating optimal treatment regimes for a target population when individual-level data is unavailable.
method A weighting framework that tailors a treatment regime for the target population using summary statistics.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for optimal treatment regimes.
Proposes CRA framework for certifying fair predictive models.
problem Certifying fairness of predictive models trained on biased data.
method Formulates CRA for fairness queries, uses background knowledge and limited target population stats.
result Builds certifiably fair predictive models on target population.
In systems biomedicine, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multi-variable network-level responses. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While c…
This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.
problem Estimating causal effects in a target population.
method Synthesis of approaches for generalizability and transportability, including tests for heterogeneity of treatment effects and differences between study and target populations.
result Framework for addressing external validity bias in causal inference.
Combines trial and observational data to improve policy evaluation.
problem External validity of randomized trial results in target populations.
method Uses covariate data to model trial sampling and certifies policy evaluations.
result Valid trial-based policy evaluations under model miscalibration.
Develops robust learning methods for datasets with sub-populations.
problem Robust performance and generalization to unseen testing populations in datasets with sub-populations.
method Min-max-regret (MMR) formulation for distribution-free robust hierarchical model.
result Empirical MMR enjoys regret guarantees on training and unseen testing populations.
A powerful approach for understanding neural population dynamics is to extract low-dimensional trajectories from population recordings using dimensionality reduction methods. Current approaches for dimensionality reduction on neural data are limited to single population recordings, and can not identify dynamics embedde…
While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease labels there can be differences (e.g. "fever" may mean something different repor…
Kernelized Taylor diagram visualizes data populations with fewer assumptions.
problem Limitations of Taylor diagram in capturing non-linear relationships and sensitivity to outliers.
method Proposes a kernelized version of the Taylor diagram that uses maximum mean discrepancy and kernel mean embedding.
result Kernelized Taylor diagram visualizes data populations with minimal assumptions of data distributions.
We examine the effects of instantiating Lewis signaling games within a population of speaker and listener agents with the aim of producing a set of general and robust representations of unstructured pixel data. Preliminary experiments suggest that the set of representations associated with languages generated within a …
Analyzes how bias evolves in SGD training across different data sub-populations.
problem Understanding bias formation during machine learning training.
method Analytical description of SGD dynamics in a teacher-student setup with Gaussian-mixture model.
result Different sub-populations influence bias at different timescales, revealing shifting classifier preferences.
Population attributes are essential in health for understanding who the data represents and precision medicine efforts. Even within disease infection labels, patients can exhibit significant variability; "fever" may mean something different when reported in a doctor's office versus from an online app, precluding direct…
Paper develops a two-population model to assess longevity basis risk.
problem Mismatch between hedger's liability and hedging instrument causes longevity basis risk.
method Develops a two-population mortality model using Lee-Carter model and renewal process.
result Proposed model provides significant risk reduction when mortality jumps and sampling risk are considered.
CLSB models system dynamics from cross-sectional data with population-level regularization.
problem Challenges in modeling system dynamics from limited cross-sectional samples and heterogeneous individual behaviors.
method Introduces CLSB framework for learning dynamics, regularized for population-level temporal variations.
result Empirically superior in single-cell sequencing data analyses, e.g., simulating cell development and drug response.
In this work, we consider hypothesis testing and anomaly detection on datasets where each observation is a weighted network. Examples of such data include brain connectivity networks from fMRI flow data, or word co-occurrence counts for populations of individuals. Current approaches to hypothesis testing for weighted n…
CrowdLLM uses LLMs and generative models to create diverse digital populations.
problem Lack of diversity and accuracy in digital populations created by LLMs.
method Integrates pretrained LLMs and generative models to enhance diversity and fidelity.
result CrowdLLM achieves promising performance in accuracy and distributional fidelity.
Active learning method for neural population dynamics using optogenetics.
problem Efficiently selecting neurons to stimulate for identifying neural population dynamics.
method Developed active learning procedure for low-rank regression to determine informative photostimulation patterns.
result Demonstrated a two-fold reduction in data required for predictive power using low-rank linear dynamical systems model.
Paper tackles causal effect identification in sub-population with latent variables.
problem Identify causal effects in a sub-population with latent variables.
method Extend relevant graphical definitions and propose an algorithm for the s-ID problem.
result Sound algorithm for s-ID problem with latent variables.
With the development of high-throughput technologies, principal component analysis (PCA) in the high-dimensional regime is of great interest. Most of the existing theoretical and methodological results for high-dimensional PCA are based on the spiked population model in which all the population eigenvalues are equal ex…
Kernel measures similarity of nonlinear causal structures in heterogeneous populations.
problem Learning causal structure in populations with diverse underlying structures.
method Distance covariance-based kernel for measuring similarity of causal structures.
result Kernel enables clustering of homogeneous subpopulations for causal structure learning.
Study predicts traffic congestion based on population mobility data.
problem Predicting traffic congestion in multimodal transport networks.
method Machine learning methods applied to population mobility data.
result Likely prediction of congestion based on population movements.
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analys…