A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
cMCA uses contrastive learning to identify latent subgroups in political party data.
TBIP uses texts to quantify lawmakers' political positions.
BERT models can classify multilingual party manifestos across different dimensions.
A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social m…
Derives a Matern Gaussian process on hypergraphs for regression and embedding.
We investigate hierarchical structure in various complex systems according to Minimum Spanning Tree methods. Firstly, we investigate stock markets where the graphis obtained from the matrix of correlations coefficient computed between all pairs of assets by considering the synchronous time evolution of the difference o…
In this paper we introduce score embedding, a neural network based model to learn interpretable vector representations for words. Score embedding is a supervised method that takes advantage of the labeled training data and the neural network architecture to learn interpretable representations for words. Health care has…
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
Contextual bandits are online learners that, given an input, select an arm and receive a reward for that arm. They use the reward as a learning signal and aim to maximize the total reward over the inputs. Contextual bandits are commonly used to solve recommendation or ranking problems. This paper considers a learning s…
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
Multi-party machine learning leaks global dataset properties even with black-box access.
Protocol minimizes disclosure in classification tasks.
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda acco…
Understanding how political attention is divided and over what subjects is crucial for research on areas such as agenda setting, framing, and political rhetoric. Existing methods for measuring attention, such as manual labeling according to established codebooks, are expensive and can be restrictive. We describe two co…
Based mainly on examples of interest in mechanics, we define the notion of a polite group action. One may view this as not only trying to give a more general notion than properness of a group action, but also to more fully understand the role of invariant functions in describing just about everything of interest in red…
In [1] Zawadoski introduces a banking network model in which the asset and counter-party risks are treated separately and the banks hedge their assets risks by appropriate OTC contracts. In his model, each bank has only two counter-party neighbors, a bank fails due to the counter-party risk only if at least one of its …
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Twitmo analyzes geo-tagged Twitter data for topic modeling and visualization.
SecureGBM securely trains GBM models across two parties without revealing data.
Community detection is a fundamental task in social network analysis. In this paper, first we develop an endorsement filtered user connectivity network by utilizing Heider's structural balance theory and certain Twitter triad patterns. Next, we develop three Nonnegative Matrix Factorization frameworks to investigate th…
Paper improves GBDT accuracy in federated learning.
Differentially-private FNAS protects privacy while collaboratively searching for neural architectures.
Federated Learning is introduced to protect privacy by distributing training data into multiple parties. Each party trains its own model and a meta-model is constructed from the sub models. In this way the details of the data are not disclosed in between each party. In this paper we investigate the model interpretation…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
Italy's vaccine coverage fell, leading to political debates and online social media discussions.
HSBC grew from Hong Kong to global dominance despite political upheavals.
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear utility functions, which encode asymmetric risk preferences; or by assuming the p…
Are Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) fair? In many real world graphs, the formation of edges is related to certain node attributes (e.g. gender, community, reputation). In this case, standard GNNs using these edges will be biased by this information, as it is encoded in the structure of the adjacency matrix itself. In this…
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…
We introduce a class of financial contracts involving several parties by extending the notion of a two-person game option (see Kifer (2000)) to a contract in which an arbitrary number of parties is involved and each of them is allowed to make a wide array of decisions at any time, not restricted to simply `exercising t…
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
Securely share encrypted data for machine learning training.
Market incentivizes parties to share high-quality data for collaborative machine learning tasks.
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
A scalable protocol for federated averaging with privacy and correctness guarantees.
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
Federated learning can propagate bias from a few parties to all participants.
Private method measures nonlinear correlations between data hosted across two entities.
The paper proposes a model reward scheme for collaborative ML based on Shapley value and information gain.
We introduce a two-agent problem which is inspired by price asymmetry arising from funding difference. When two parties have different funding rates, the two parties deduce different fair prices for derivative contracts even under the same pricing methodology and parameters. Thus, the two parties should enter the deriv…
Study tackles RLHF with diverse human feedback, showing limitations and proposing a meta-learning approach.
In this work, we demonstrate universal multi-party poisoning attacks that adapt and apply to any multi-party learning process with arbitrary interaction pattern between the parties. More generally, we introduce and study -poisoning attacks in which an adversary controls of the parties, and for each cor…
This paper examines how voter concentration affects election outcomes in district-based systems.
In this paper, we have studied the pricing of a continuously collateralized CDS. We have made use of the "survival measure" to derive the pricing formula in a straightforward way. As a result, we have found that there exists irremovable trace of the counter party as well as the investor in the price of CDS through thei…
Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.