A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.
TIMME detects Twitter users' ideology from sparse, heterogeneous data.
In the context of fake news, bias, and propaganda, we study two important but relatively under-explored problems: (i) trustworthiness estimation (on a 3-point scale) and (ii) political ideology detection (left/right bias on a 7-point scale) of entire news outlets, as opposed to evaluating individual articles. In partic…
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
The 2016 United States presidential election has been characterized as a period of extreme divisiveness that was exacerbated on social media by the influence of fake news, trolls, and social bots. However, the extent to which the public became more polarized in response to these influences over the course of the electi…
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Probabilistic methods for classifying text form a rich tradition in machine learning and natural language processing. For many important problems, however, class prediction is uninteresting because the class is known, and instead the focus shifts to estimating latent quantities related to the text, such as affect or id…
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
QLSTM outperforms LSTM in predicting KSE 100 index movements.
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
Two computational models analyze political topics in social media tweets.
Model predicts EU carbon prices using market and political factors.
Paper connects fair machine learning to political philosophy, highlighting flaws in ideal approaches.
TBIP uses texts to quantify lawmakers' political positions.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda acco…
Based mainly on examples of interest in mechanics, we define the notion of a polite group action. One may view this as not only trying to give a more general notion than properness of a group action, but also to more fully understand the role of invariant functions in describing just about everything of interest in red…
Community detection is a fundamental task in social network analysis. In this paper, first we develop an endorsement filtered user connectivity network by utilizing Heider's structural balance theory and certain Twitter triad patterns. Next, we develop three Nonnegative Matrix Factorization frameworks to investigate th…
Contemporary debates on filter bubbles and polarization in public and social media raise the question to what extent news media of the past exhibited biases. This paper specifically examines bias related to gender in six Dutch national newspapers between 1950 and 1990. We measure bias related to gender by comparing loc…
The problem of ranking a set of objects given some measure of similarity is one of the most basic in machine learning. Recently Agarwal proposed a method based on techniques in semi-supervised learning utilizing the graph Laplacian. In this work we consider a novel application of this technique to ranking binary choice…
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
In this paper we bring to bear some new tools from statistical learning on the analysis of roll call data. We present a new data-driven model for roll call voting that is geometric in nature. We construct the model by adapting the "Partition Decoupling Method," an unsupervised learning technique originally developed fo…
Taleb (2018) claimed a novel approach to evaluating the quality of probabilistic election forecasts via no-arbitrage pricing techniques and argued that popular forecasts of the 2016 U.S. Presidential election had violated arbitrage boundaries. We show that under mild assumptions all such political forecasts are arbitra…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
Italy's vaccine coverage fell, leading to political debates and online social media discussions.
MGM improves media profiling by integrating textual and structural features.
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…
Study of negative ads on social media during U.S. midterm elections.
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
We introduce supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA), a statistical model of labelled documents. The model accommodates a variety of response types. We derive an approximate maximum-likelihood procedure for parameter estimation, which relies on variational methods to handle intractable posterior expectations. Pre…
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
We develop a model of issue-specific voting behavior. This model can be used to explore lawmakers' personal voting patterns of voting by issue area, providing an exploratory window into how the language of the law is correlated with political support. We derive approximate posterior inference algorithms based on variat…
This paper opens the series of articles supplemental to the series (hep-th/9405050,q-alg/9610026,q-alg/9611003,q-alg/9611019,funct-an/9611003), which also lies in lines of general ideology exposed in the review (mp_arc/96-477). The main purpose of the activity, which has its origin and motivation presumably in the auth…
Paper examines how adversarial ML attacks and defenses impact civil liberties and human rights.
Model predicts active and passive cosponsorship motivations in Congress.
Study examines Trump's crypto influence on markets, revealing conflicts and vulnerabilities.
We present a Bayesian tensor factorization model for inferring latent group structures from dynamic pairwise interaction patterns. For decades, political scientists have collected and analyzed records of the form "country took action toward country at time "---known as dyadic events---in order to form an…
Decentralized prediction markets use AMMs to pool and withdraw liquidity, improving financial properties.
Activists align with large fund preferences for success.
This article is a prologue to the article "Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling 'Theory' of Financial Markets for Practitioners and Theorists." It presents important background for that article --- why gambling is important, even necessary, for real-world traders --- the reason for the superiority of the strategic/g…
Study shows news from various topics impacts Nifty 50 index.
Adaptive uncertainty quantification improves black-box model predictions in generative AI.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.