A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Community detection is a fundamental task in social network analysis. In this paper, first we develop an endorsement filtered user connectivity network by utilizing Heider's structural balance theory and certain Twitter triad patterns. Next, we develop three Nonnegative Matrix Factorization frameworks to investigate th…
Understanding how political attention is divided and over what subjects is crucial for research on areas such as agenda setting, framing, and political rhetoric. Existing methods for measuring attention, such as manual labeling according to established codebooks, are expensive and can be restrictive. We describe two co…
Italy's vaccine coverage fell, leading to political debates and online social media discussions.
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
The last decade has seen great progress in both dynamic network modeling and topic modeling. This paper draws upon both areas to create a Bayesian method that allows topic discovery to inform the latent network model and the network structure to facilitate topic identification. We apply this method to the 467 top polit…
The study of networks has received increased attention recently not only from the social sciences and statistics but also from physicists, computer scientists and mathematicians. One of the principal problem in networks is community detection. Many algorithms have been proposed for community finding but most of them do…
Many algorithms have been proposed for fitting network models with communities, but most of them do not scale well to large networks, and often fail on sparse networks. Here we propose a new fast pseudo-likelihood method for fitting the stochastic block model for networks, as well as a variant that allows for an arbitr…
Media seems to have become more partisan, often providing a biased coverage of news catering to the interest of specific groups. It is therefore essential to identify credible information content that provides an objective narrative of an event. News communities such as digg, reddit, or newstrust offer recommendations,…
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
This paper uses decolonial theory to improve AI's ethical development.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
Deep learning improves community detection in graph datasets.
TBIP uses texts to quantify lawmakers' political positions.
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda acco…
Based mainly on examples of interest in mechanics, we define the notion of a polite group action. One may view this as not only trying to give a more general notion than properness of a group action, but also to more fully understand the role of invariant functions in describing just about everything of interest in red…
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Community detection, which aims to cluster nodes in a given graph into distinct groups based on the observed undirected edges, is an important problem in network data analysis. In this paper, the popular stochastic block model (SBM) is extended to the generalized stochastic block model (GSBM) that allows for ad…
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with si…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social m…
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
Study shows impersonators generate fake engagement on Instagram.
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
We present a method based on the orthogonal symmetric non-negative matrix tri-factorization of the normalized Laplacian matrix for community detection in complex networks. While the exact factorization of a given order may not exist and is NP hard to compute, we obtain an approximate factorization by solving an optimiz…
Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.
Study examines Trump's crypto influence on markets, revealing conflicts and vulnerabilities.
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
Stochastic networks are a plausible representation of the relational information among entities in dynamic systems such as living cells or social communities. While there is a rich literature in estimating a static or temporally invariant network from observation data, little has been done toward estimating time-varyin…
Stochastic block models (SBMs) have been playing an important role in modeling clusters or community structures of network data. But, it is incapable of handling several complex features ubiquitously exhibited in real-world networks, one of which is the power-law degree characteristic. To this end, we propose a new var…
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.
cMCA uses contrastive learning to identify latent subgroups in political party data.
Policy shifts between Trump and Biden impact ESG investments, creating volatility.
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined …
Study examines how governance, corruption, and R&D affect economic development.
Paper connects fair machine learning to political philosophy, highlighting flaws in ideal approaches.
Locational Marginal Pricing aims to free UK power markets.
Social media sites are becoming a key factor in politics. These platforms are easy to manipulate for the purpose of distorting information space to confuse and distract voters. Past works to identify disruptive patterns are mostly focused on analyzing the content of tweets. In this study, we jointly embed the informati…
Venice used 'helicopter money' to subsidize during famine and plague, but it caused instability.
This article presents a preliminary approach towards characterizing political fake news on Twitter through the analysis of their meta-data. In particular, we focus on more than 1.5M tweets collected on the day of the election of Donald Trump as 45th president of the United States of America. We use the meta-data embedd…
MGM improves media profiling by integrating textual and structural features.
Computer Vision and machine learning methods were previously used to reveal screen presence of genders in TV and movies. In this work, using head pose, gender detection, and skin color estimation techniques, we demonstrate that the gender disparity in TV in a South Asian country such as Bangladesh exhibits unique chara…
This study shows how trade policy uncertainty affects stock-T bill correlations.
BERT models can classify multilingual party manifestos across different dimensions.