A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
POTEC tackles off-policy learning in large action spaces, improving effectiveness.
Paper introduces DQPOPE for estimating return distributions in reinforcement learning.
In this paper we suggest a modification of the regression-based variance reduction approach recently proposed in Belomestny et al. This modification is based on the stratification technique and allows for a further significant variance reduction. The performance of the proposed approach is illustrated by several numeri…
In this paper we propose a novel dual regression-based approach for pricing American options. This approach reduces the complexity of the nested Monte Carlo method and has especially simple form for time discretised diffusion processes. We analyse the complexity of the proposed approach both in the case of fixed and in…
This paper optimizes off-policy evaluation in reinforcement learning with function approximation.
Develops a regression approach for solving MDPs with general state and action spaces.
Identifying the location of a disturbance and its magnitude is an important component for stable operation of power systems. We study the problem of localizing and estimating a disturbance in the interconnected power system. We take a model-free approach to this problem by using frequency data from generators. Specific…
New method for evaluating and learning in complex decision-making scenarios.
New method stabilizes FQE by reweighting Bellman targets.
New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.
This paper introduces a new correction scheme to a conventional regression-based event study method: a topological machine-learning approach with a self-organizing map (SOM).We use this new scheme to analyze a major market event in Japan and find that the factors of abnormal stock returns can be easily can be easily id…
New approach predicts event probabilities for better event detection.
Adaptive spectral RL method enhances RL performance and interpretability.
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
The generalized linear model (GLM) plays a key role in regression analyses. In high-dimensional data, the sparse GLM has been used but it is not robust against outliers. Recently, the robust methods have been proposed for the specific example of the sparse GLM. Among them, we focus on the robust and sparse linear regre…
In this note we propose a new approach towards solving numerically optimal stopping problems via reinforced regression based Monte Carlo algorithms. The main idea of the method is to reinforce standard linear regression algorithms in each backward induction step by adding new basis functions based on previously estimat…
We consider a class of discrete time stochastic control problems motivated by some financial applications. We use a pathwise stochastic control approach to provide a dual formulation of the problem. This enables us to develop a numerical technique for obtaining an estimate of the value function which improves on purely…
Purpose: Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a quantitative, non-invasive alternative to perfusion imaging with contrast agents. Fixing values of certain model parameters in traditional ASL, which actually vary from region to region, may introduce bias in perfusion estimates. Adopting Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting (MRF…
E-QRGMM accelerates uncertainty quantification in simulations.
We introduce new variants of classical regression-based algorithms for optimal stopping problems based on computation of regression coefficients by Monte Carlo approximation of the corresponding inner products instead of the least-squares error functional. Coupled with new proposals for simulation of the underlyi…
This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation.…
In this work, we propose an algorithm to price American options by directly solving the dual minimization problem introduced by Rogers. Our approach relies on approximating the set of uniformly square integrable martingales by a finite dimensional Wiener chaos expansion. Then, we use a sample average approximation tech…
We design simple screening tests to automatically discard data samples in empirical risk minimization without losing optimization guarantees. We derive loss functions that produce dual objectives with a sparse solution. We also show how to regularize convex losses to ensure such a dual sparsity-inducing property, and p…
This paper introduces an interpolation-based method, called the reconstruction approach, for nonparametric regression. Based on the fact that interpolation usually has negligible errors compared to statistical estimation, the reconstruction approach uses an interpolator to parameterize the regression function with its …
New framework for reinforcement learning with sporadic state observations.
A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven to be efficient because, unlike conventional methods, it does not require Kalma…
In this work we propose a heteroscedastic generalization to RVM, a fast Bayesian framework for regression, based on some recent similar works. We use variational approximation and expectation propagation to tackle the problem. The work is still under progress and we are examining the results and comparing with the prev…
In this paper we present a regression based model for day-ahead electricity spot prices. We estimate the considered linear regression model by the lasso estimation method. The lasso approach allows for many possible parameters in the model, but also shrinks and sparsifies the parameters automatically to avoid overfitti…
We formulate coherence modeling as a regression task and propose two novel methods to combine techniques from our setup with pairwise approaches. The first of our methods is a model that we call "first-next," which operates similarly to selection sorting but conditions decision-making on information about already-sorte…
The kernel null-space technique and its regression-based formulation (called one-class kernel spectral regression, a.k.a. OC-KSR) is known to be an effective and computationally attractive one-class classification framework. Despite its outstanding performance, the applicability of kernel null-space method is limited d…
Proposes a robust Q-learning method to improve treatment strategy estimation.
Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several metrics to evaluate the performance of ordinal regression, such as the mean absol…
In this paper, a multi-layer architecture (in a hierarchical fashion) by stacking various Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) based Auto-Encoder for one-class classification is proposed and is referred as MKOC. MKOC has many layers of Auto-Encoders to project the input features into new feature space and the last layer was r…
Kriging is an efficient machine-learning tool, which allows to obtain an approximate response of an investigated phenomenon on the whole parametric space. Adaptive schemes provide a the ability to guide the experiment yielding new sample point positions to enrich the metamodel. Herein a novel adaptive scheme called Mon…
New deep learning method handles rare and imbalanced events in time series.
Regression learns Mori-Zwanzig operators for dynamical systems.
We study the problem of programmatic reinforcement learning, in which policies are represented as short programs in a symbolic language. Programmatic policies can be more interpretable, generalizable, and amenable to formal verification than neural policies; however, designing rigorous learning approaches for such poli…
We give a complete algorithm and source code for constructing what we refer to as heterotic risk models (for equities), which combine: i) granularity of an industry classification; ii) diagonality of the principal component factor covariance matrix for any sub-cluster of stocks; and iii) dramatic reduction of the facto…
We study the problem of off-policy policy optimization in Markov decision processes, and develop a novel off-policy policy gradient method. Prior off-policy policy gradient approaches have generally ignored the mismatch between the distribution of states visited under the behavior policy used to collect data, and what …
Enhanced TSFMs improve time series forecasting accuracy and reliability.
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
We present a simple quantile regression-based forecasting method that was applied in a probabilistic load forecasting framework of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017). The hourly load data is log transformed and split into a long-term trend component and a remainder term. The key forecasting ele…
Time-lagged autoencoders (TAEs) have been proposed as a deep learning regression-based approach to the discovery of slow modes in dynamical systems. However, a rigorous analysis of nonlinear TAEs remains lacking. In this work, we discuss the capabilities and limitations of TAEs through both theoretical and numerical an…
A new inference method using regression and batched discrepancies.
The spectacular expansion of the Internet has led to the development of a new research problem in the field of natural language processing: automatic toxic comment detection, since many countries prohibit hate speech in public media. There is no clear and formal definition of hate, offensive, toxic and abusive speeches…
New method optimizes policies in non-stationary environments.
Study bridges welfare maximization and CATE estimation in policy learning.
This work learns exploration policies for unknown distributions using samples and policy gradients.