A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Value aggregation is a general framework for solving imitation learning problems. Based on the idea of data aggregation, it generates a policy sequence by iteratively interleaving policy optimization and evaluation in an online learning setting. While the existence of a good policy in the policy sequence can be guarant…
Policy gradient methods with aggregated states can achieve better performance than approximate policy iteration.
problem Approximation errors in policy and value function approximations.
method State-aggregated representations and policy gradient methods.
result Policy gradient methods can achieve a per-period regret bounded by ε, while approximate policy iteration and value iteration have a higher regret.
In this paper we discuss policy iteration methods for approximate solution of a finite-state discounted Markov decision problem, with a focus on feature-based aggregation methods and their connection with deep reinforcement learning schemes. We introduce features of the states of the original problem, and we formulate …
We empirically test the effects of unanticipated fiscal policy shocks on the growth rate and the cyclical component of real private output and reveal different types of asymmetries in fiscal policy implementation. The data used are quarterly U.S. observati ons over the period 1967:1 to 2011:4. In doing so, we use both …
The paper tackles personalized policy learning from diverse data sources in a federated setting.
problem Learning personalized decision policies from observational bandit feedback across multiple heterogeneous data sources.
method Introduces a novel regret analysis for distinguishing global and local regret, and presents a federated policy learning algorithm using local policies trained with doubly robust offline policy evaluation strategies.
result Establishes finite-sample upper bounds on global and local regret, characterizing them by source heterogeneity and distribution shift.
Study optimal policy regret in partially observable Markov games with adaptive opponents.
problem Optimal sequential decision-making in partially observable environments against strategic, adaptive opponents.
method An epoch-based optimistic maximum-likelihood algorithm that selects one policy per epoch using confidence sets built cumulatively from past data.
result Achieves ildeO(T) policy regret for fixed problem parameters, with explicit dependence on horizon, adversary memory, confidence radius, and aggregate Eluder dimension.
We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving an…
The policy objective of safeguarding financial stability has stimulated a wave of research on systemic risk analytics, yet it still faces challenges in measurability. This paper models systemic risk by tapping into expert knowledge of financial supervisors. We decompose systemic risk into a number of interconnected seg…
Most real-world problems have huge state and/or action spaces. Therefore, a naive application of existing tabular solution methods is not tractable on such problems. Nonetheless, these solution methods are quite useful if an agent has access to a relatively small state-action space homomorphism of the true environment …
Joint replacement is the most common inpatient surgical treatment in the US. We investigate the clinical pathway optimization for knee replacement, which is a sequential decision process from onset to recovery. Based on episodic claims from previous cases, we view the pathway optimization as an intelligence crowdsourci…
This study examine the difference in the size of avalanches among industries triggered by demand shocks, which can be rephrased by control of the economy or fiscal policy, and by using the production-inventory model and observed data. We obtain the following results. (1) The size of avalanches follows power law. (2) Th…
Many potential applications of reinforcement learning in the real world involve interacting with other agents whose numbers vary over time. We propose new neural policy architectures for these multi-agent problems. In contrast to other methods of training an individual, discrete policy for each agent and then enforcing…
Initial DR studies mainly adopt model predictive control and thus require accurate models of the control problem (e.g., a customer behavior model), which are to a large extent uncertain for the EV scenario. Hence, model-free approaches, especially based on reinforcement learning (RL) are an attractive alternative. In t…
We present an approach to estimate the severity of traffic related accidents in aggregated (area-level) and disaggregated (point level) data. Exploring spatial features, we measure complexity of road networks using several area level variables. Also using temporal and other situational features from open data for New Y…
Census data provide detailed information about population characteristics at a coarse resolution. Nevertheless, fine-grained, high-resolution mappings of population counts are increasingly needed to characterize population dynamics and to assess the consequences of climate shocks, natural disasters, investments in infr…
The ability to perform effective off-policy learning would revolutionize the process of building better interactive systems, such as search engines and recommendation systems for e-commerce, computational advertising and news. Recent approaches for off-policy evaluation and learning in these settings appear promising. …
Truckload brokerages, a $100 billion/year industry in the U.S., plays the critical role of matching shippers with carriers, often to move loads several days into the future. Brokerages not only have to find companies that will agree to move a load, the brokerage often has to find a price that both the shipper and carri…
Rank aggregation based on pairwise comparisons over a set of items has a wide range of applications. Although considerable research has been devoted to the development of rank aggregation algorithms, one basic question is how to efficiently collect a large amount of high-quality pairwise comparisons for the ranking pur…