Centered plug-in estimators reduce bias in Wasserstein distance estimation.
problem Conservative bias in plug-in estimators of Wasserstein distances.
method Centering procedure based on linear combinations to reduce bias.
result Centered plug-in estimators provide informative upper and lower bounds on Wasserstein distances.
The paper analyzes rates of convergence for optimal transport map estimators using barycentric projections.
problem Estimating optimal transport maps from data sampled according to two distributions.
method Comprehensive analysis of rates of convergence for plug-in estimators defined via barycentric projections.
result New stability estimate for barycentric projections under minimal smoothness assumptions.
The paper proves statistical consistency and fairness guarantees for a plug-in algorithm.
problem Establishing statistical guarantees for fairness-aware binary classification.
method Proves statistical consistency and derives finite sample guarantees for the plug-in algorithm.
result The plug-in algorithm is statistically consistent and guarantees fairness and differential privacy.
C-Learner improves stability of plug-in estimators for causal inference.
problem Limited overlap between treatment and control groups leads to unstable estimates.
method Constrained learning framework that achieves stability and asymptotic properties.
result Constrained learning produces stable estimates with desirable asymptotic properties.
Optimal sample complexity analysis for plug-in approach in average-reward MDPs.
problem Learning optimal policies in average-reward MDPs with a generative model.
method Plug-in approach that constructs a model estimate and computes an optimal policy.
result Optimal sample complexities for the plug-in approach without prior knowledge of problem parameters.
A new method debiases multiple target parameters without IFs.
problem Debiasing multiple target parameters in nonparametric models.
method Kernel Debiased Plug-in Estimation (KDPE) using TMLE and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces.
result KDPE simultaneously debiases all pathwise differentiable target parameters.
Develops non-standard analysis for coherent risk estimation.
problem Estimating coherent risk measures in financial contexts.
method Non-standard analysis, hyperfinite representations, discrete Kusuoka formulae, plug-in asymptotics.
result Uniform almost sure consistency and asymptotic normality of spectral plug-in estimators.
A new method estimates Schrödinger bridges without iterative simulations or neural networks.
problem Estimating the time-dependent drift between two probability distributions.
method Solving the static entropic optimal transport problem and modifying the potentials.
result The Sinkhorn bridge method provably estimates Schrödinger bridges with a rate of convergence dependent on the target measure's intrinsic dimensionality.
New estimator for estimating derivatives in nonparametric regression.
problem Estimating derivatives of regression functions.
method Plug-in kernel ridge regression (KRR) estimator.
result Plug-in property for derivatives estimation, optimal rate of convergence.
Study minimax off-policy evaluation in multi-armed bandits with known and unknown behavior policies.
problem Evaluate policies in multi-armed bandits with unknown behavior policies.
method Develop minimax rate-optimal procedures for known and unknown behavior policies, including the Switch estimator and Chebyshev polynomial-based estimator.
result Plug-in estimator achieves optimal competitive ratio up to a logarithmic factor when behavior policy is unknown.
We formalize AURC and develop estimators for SC systems.
problem Evaluation of SC systems' performance.
method Formal statistical formulation, Monte Carlo methods, plug-in estimators.
result Plug-in estimators are consistent, with low bias and bounded MSE.
Simplified plug-in loss approximates EDL for reliable uncertainty estimation.
problem Efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in real-world sensor-based learning systems.
method Approximate Dirichlet expected objectives with plug-in losses evaluated at the Dirichlet mean.
result Plug-in losses provide comparable predictive accuracy and selective prediction performance to classical EDL, while being simpler to implement.
Estimating symmetric properties of a distribution, e.g. support size, coverage, entropy, distance to uniformity, are among the most fundamental problems in algorithmic statistics. While each of these properties have been studied extensively and separate optimal estimators are known for each, in striking recent work, Ac…
We study three fundamental statistical-learning problems: distribution estimation, property estimation, and property testing. We establish the profile maximum likelihood (PML) estimator as the first unified sample-optimal approach to a wide range of learning tasks. In particular, for every alphabet size k and desired…
ULFS-KDPE estimates parameters efficiently without influence functions.
problem Estimating pathwise differentiable parameters in nonparametric models.
method Kernel debiased plug-in estimator based on universal least favorable submodel.
result Semiparametric efficiency achieved without influence function derivation.
Unified plug-in approach for estimating symmetric properties of distributions efficiently.
problem Estimating symmetric properties of distributions with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Profile-maximum-likelihood (PML) based estimator.
result Achieves theoretical limit for universal symmetric property estimation.
Estimates change point in high dimensional time series models.
problem Change point estimation in high dimensional time series.
method Plug-in least squares estimator with sufficient conditions for adaptivity.
result Optimal rate of convergence Op(ξ−2) in integer scale. Two new covariance estimators for ROOT-SGD improve statistical inference.
problem Uncertainty measurement for ROOT-SGD's normal distribution estimator.
method Developed two covariance estimators: plug-in and Hessian-free.
result Hessian-free estimator is asymptotically consistent and Hessian-free.
Semiparametric method removes bias in functional bilevel gradient estimation.
problem First-order bias in plug-in hypergradient when lower-level problem is nonparametric.
method Semiparametric debiasing theory based on efficient influence function leads to cross-fitted orthogonal hypergradient estimator.
result Asymptotic normality and uniform control over outer parameter established for the estimator.
SLIM efficiently solves overidentified models in a scalable manner.
problem Overidentified models with many moment conditions.
method Stochastic approximation framework using mini-batches and unbiased updates.
result SLIM solves overidentified models in under 1.4 hours, compared to 18 hours for full-sample GMM.
A new method for sampling on manifolds reduces density estimation errors.
problem Sampling on implicitly defined manifolds in various applications.
method Polynomial-Maximization Moment (PMM) estimator replacing local k-nearest-neighbour density estimate.
result Reduces density estimation errors by 22--36% on asymmetric gamma and boundary-spacing regimes.
The paper improves OT map estimation rates without strict assumptions.
problem Estimating optimal transport maps under practical conditions.
method Developed new convergence rates and scalable algorithms.
result Improved convergence rates for OT map estimation without restrictive assumptions.
Study builds a classifier for diffusions with unknown diffusion but known drifts.
problem Multiclass classification of S.D.E. paths with unknown diffusion coefficient.
method Plug-in classifier using nonparametric estimators of drift and diffusion functions.
result Consistent classification procedure with rate of convergence under different assumptions.
EP-learning framework improves causal contrast estimation efficiency.
problem Estimating heterogeneous causal contrasts efficiently and stably.
method EP-learning framework combining T-learning and DR-learning.
result EP-learners are oracle-efficient and outperform competitors.
Paper develops PGMM framework for debiased inference on nonparametric IV estimators.
problem Automatic debiased inference on nonparametric IV functionals.
method Penalized GMM (PGMM) framework for functionals of IV estimators.
result PGMM-based debiased estimator performs well, achieving near-nominal coverage.
This study examines biases in flow matching samplers using finite-sample estimation.
problem Biases in flow matching samplers when using finite-sample surrogates.
method Finite-sample plug-in estimation and hierarchy of empirical FM models.
result Exact empirical minimizer and smoothed plug-in regime identified for affine conditional flows.
New method optimizes risk estimation for financial losses.
problem Estimating expected shortfall risk for heavy-tailed distributions.
method Proposes a novel estimator for expected shortfall robust to data corruption.
result Demonstrates superior performance and robustness compared to classical methods.
Plug-in robust NPE method adapts summaries independently of pretrained NPE.
problem Misspecification of neural posterior estimators under test data distribution.
method Minimum-distance summaries using maximum mean discrepancy (MMD).
result Substantial robustness gains with minimal additional overhead.
New method optimizes portfolio weights as functions, outperforming traditional approaches.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights in mean-variance models.
method Functional optimization approach, treating weights as functions of past values.
result Gradient-ascent algorithms can solve functional optimization problems for mean-variance portfolio management.
Develops fully Bayesian LVGP for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in qualitative inputs for GP models.
method Maps qualitative inputs to latent variables, uses standard GP over LVs, estimates LVs through ML, develops fully Bayesian approach.
result Significant improvements in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification over plug-in approach.
The best-known and most commonly used distribution-property estimation technique uses a plug-in estimator, with empirical frequency replacing the underlying distribution. We present novel linear-time-computable estimators that significantly "amplify" the effective amount of data available. For a large variety of distri…
New method corrects risk estimation bias, improving backtesting results.
problem Underestimation of risk by existing methods, especially in small samples.
method Proposes a new algorithm for bias correction using generalized Pareto distributions.
result The new algorithm leads to improved efficiency in estimating risk with heavy tails or heteroscedasticity.
New algorithm corrects risk estimation bias for heavy-tailed data.
problem Underestimation of risk in banking and insurance due to bias in estimation procedures.
method Proposes a new algorithm for bias correction and applies it to generalized Pareto distributions.
result The algorithm leads to more accurate risk estimation, especially in heavy-tailed data.
In the framework of supervised classification (discrimination) for functional data, it is shown that the optimal classification rule can be explicitly obtained for a class of Gaussian processes with "triangular" covariance functions. This explicit knowledge has two practical consequences. First, the consistency of the …
Multi-task learning is a type of transfer learning that trains multiple tasks simultaneously and leverages the shared information between related tasks to improve the generalization performance. However, missing features in the input matrix is a much more difficult problem which needs to be carefully addressed. Removin…
Paper introduces DRM for selecting robust CATE estimators.
problem Selecting CATE estimators without counterfactual outcomes.
method Distributionally Robust Metric (DRM) for CATE estimator selection.
result DRM selects robust CATE estimators robust to distribution shift.
A method combines deep learning and G-estimation for causal mediation analysis.
problem Estimating structural mediation parameters under unmeasured confounding.
method UNIT method using TARNet for representation learning and G-estimation.
result Improved precision of structural parameter estimator through better representation learning.
Develops a new method for statistical optimal allocation problems.
problem Statistical optimal allocation problems with constraints.
method Functional differentiability approach and Hadamard differentiability of value functions.
result Validates margin assumption for fast convergence rate of plug-in methods.
Estimates stationary mass and frequency from non-i.i.d. data.
problem Estimating stationary mass and frequency from non-i.i.d. data.
method Combines plug-in estimator with WingIt modification for exponentially α-mixing processes. result Universal consistency in n for total variation distance estimation. Optimally estimates a functional using nuisance function tuning and sample splitting.
problem Estimating optimal rates for a doubly robust functional.
method Combines nuisance function tuning and sample splitting strategies.
result Shows optimal rates of convergence for various estimators.
New algorithm for optimizing statistical utilities in bandits.
problem Optimizing statistical functionals of long-run reward distributions.
method Influence-function calculus for stochastic gradient estimation, entropic mirror-ascent algorithm.
result Regret bounds that separate optimization and estimation errors.
The paper develops a neural network-based classifier for diffusion process drifts.
problem Classifying diffusion processes with distinct drift functions from discrete observations.
method Derives a Bayes rule and constructs a plug-in classifier using neural networks to estimate drifts.
result Establishes convergence rates for misclassification risk, highlighting benefits of diffusion structure.
Estimates time-series drifts from i.i.d. data using a direct Nadaraya-Watson plug-in method.
problem Nonparametric estimation of Schrödinger bridge drifts from single time interval data.
method Direct Nadaraya-Watson plug-in estimator based on kernelized numerator and denominator terms.
result Uniform non-asymptotic bound, CLT under undersmoothing, and adaptive bandwidth selector.
Researchers develop a method to generate diffusion-based samples from a tilted distribution.
problem Generating samples from a distribution that has been tilted by a parameter.
method Developed a plug-in estimator and proved Wasserstein bounds and TV-accuracy under certain conditions.
result The method is minimax-optimal and can be applied in various domains like finance and climate modeling.
Unified framework for predicting data changes influenced by predictions.
problem Complex feedback loops in environments where predictions alter data distributions.
method Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) and two-step plug-in estimator integrating RePPI and Importance Sampling.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and robustness under mild misspecification.
We analyze a plug-in estimator for a large class of integral functionals of one or more continuous probability densities. This class includes important families of entropy, divergence, mutual information, and their conditional versions. For densities on the d-dimensional unit cube [0,1]d that lie in a β-Hölder s…
We develop a general class of noise-robust estimators based on the existing estimators in the non-noisy high-frequency data literature. The microstructure noise is a parametric function of the limit order book. The noise-robust estimators are constructed as plug-in versions of their counterparts, where we replace the e…
Plug-in method improves performative prediction accuracy.
problem Learning under performative feedback with slow convergence rates.
method Plug-in performative optimization using models.
result Plug-in method can be superior to model-agnostic strategies.