Study shows physical drift affects put-call parity enforcement, not just option payoffs.
problem Inconsistency between quoted put-call parity and actual market behavior.
method Examined SPX and RUT index options, used drift-preserving GBM term to improve fit.
result Physical drift enters the enforcement of risk-neutral parity, not just option payoffs.
We reformulate wealth taxation using Fokker-Planck equations to ensure tax neutrality.
problem Ensuring tax neutrality in wealth taxation frameworks.
method Reformulating the neutral wealth tax framework using stochastic dynamics and statistical physics, specifically Fokker-Planck equations.
result The framework clarifies when wealth taxation is a benign rescaling of dynamics and when it introduces new physics.
Global physical event detection has traditionally relied on dense coverage of physical sensors around the world; while this is an expensive undertaking, there have not been alternatives until recently. The ubiquity of social networks and human sensors in the field provides a tremendous amount of real-time, live data ab…
The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics Letters A (346), 2005] and put the application of the method on a firm theoretical …
Event detection has long been the domain of physical sensors operating in a static dataset assumption. The prevalence of social media and web access has led to the emergence of social, or human sensors who report on events globally. This warrants development of event detectors that can take advantage of the truly dense…
Framework models supervised learning in non-stationary data.
problem Non-stationary data in supervised learning.
method Statistical physics methods applied to LVQ and neural networks.
result LVQ and ReLU have different sensitivity to concept drift.
DPS uses PINNs to estimate drift in diffusion models for sampling.
problem Accurately estimating drift term in reverse SDE from unnormalized density.
method Diffusion-PINN Sampler (DPS) solves PINN for log-density of SDE marginals.
result DPS achieves convergence guarantees and accurately samples complex distributions.
The paper tackles drift identification in Lévy α-stable stochastic systems, proposing a Fourier space approach.
problem Estimating the drift field of a stochastic differential equation driven by Lévy α-stable noise.
method Fourier space approach, parameterizing the drift field using Fourier series, minimizing a loss function with gradients computed via the adjoint method.
result The method is capable of learning drift fields in qualitative and/or quantitative agreement with ground truth fields.
The paper compares PINN methods for solving drift-diffusion equations on metric graphs.
problem Solving drift-diffusion equations on metric graphs using machine learning.
method Comparison of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving drift-diffusion equations on metric graphs.
result PINNs offer a flexible and versatile tool for solving parameter identification or optimization problems on metric graphs.
The existence of the pricing kernel is shown to imply the existence of an ambient information process that generates market filtration. This information process consists of a signal component concerning the value of the random variable X that can be interpreted as the timing of future cash demand, and an independent no…
We study the performance of the euro/Swiss franc exchange rate in the extraordinary period from September 6, 2011 and January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank enforced a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro. Based on the analogy between Brownian motion in finance and physics, the first-order effect …
We introduce a method for non-uniform random number generation based on sampling a physical process in a controlled environment. We demonstrate one proof-of-concept implementation of the method that reduces the error of Monte Carlo integration of a univariate Gaussian by 1068 times while doubling the speed of the Monte…
We present a modelling framework for the investigation of prototype-based classifiers in non-stationary environments. Specifically, we study Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) systems trained from a stream of high-dimensional, clustered data.We consider standard winner-takes-all updates known as LVQ1. Statistical prope…
Paper uses sparse learning to estimate quasi-potential and drift components in stochastic systems.
problem Estimating quasi-potential and drift components in stochastic systems.
method Sparse identification of non-linear dynamics (SINDy) combined with action minimization methods.
result Evaluation of quasi-potential landscape from a single trajectory.
In accessibility tests for digital preservation, over time we experience drifts of localized and labelled content in statistical models of evolving semantics represented as a vector field. This articulates the need to detect, measure, interpret and model outcomes of knowledge dynamics. To this end we employ a high-perf…
The paper analyzes investment and consumption strategies under uncertain market conditions.
problem Investment and consumption under drift and volatility uncertainties.
method Randomization approach to construct robust preferences and strategies.
result Developed optimal and robust investment and consumption strategies remain valid in the physical market.
Group personalization improves FL performance in heterogeneous client data.
problem Mitigating client drift in federated learning with heterogeneous data.
method Fine-tuning a global FL model over homogeneous groups of clients, then personalizing each group's model.
result The proposed method achieves superior personalization performance compared to other FL approaches.
The paper introduces a simple way of recording and manipulating general stochastic processes without explicit reference to a probability measure. In the new calculus, operations traditionally presented in a measure-specific way are instead captured by tracing the behaviour of jumps (also when no jumps are physically pr…
The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a non-parametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of …
This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.
problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.
The evolution of the probability distributions of Japan and US major market indices, NIKKEI 225 and NASDAQ composite index, and JPY/DEM and DEM/USD currency exchange rates is described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE). In order to distinguish and quantify the deterministic and random influences on these…
Identifies features most relevant to concept drift in data.
problem Identifying features most relevant to concept drift.
method Distinguishing between drift inducing and faithfully drifting features; deriving minimal subsets of features to characterize drift.
result Derives a detection algorithm for concept drift.
New method learns SDEs with structured noise from data.
problem Learning SDEs with structured noise from data.
method Nonparametric framework for drift and diffusion terms.
result Accurately infers low-dimensional interaction kernels.
New method detects when models influence their own drift in real-time data streams.
problem Models can induce concept drift in real-time data streams.
method CheckerBoard Performative Drift Detection (CB-PDD)
result CB-PDD effectively detects performative drift in real-time data streams.
This research identifies flaws in drift detection methods and creates adversarial data streams to exploit them.
problem The challenge of detecting data distribution changes (drift) in real-time systems.
method Developed adversarial data streams to show weaknesses in existing drift detection schemes.
result Demonstrated that common drift detection methods can be fooled by adversarial data streams.
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and formulated in various degrees of abstraction and mathematical coherence. In this contribu…
Study predicts turbulent electric fields in fusion plasmas using deep learning.
problem Predicting turbulent electric fields in fusion plasmas.
method Physics-informed deep learning, drift-reduced Braginskii theory, experimental data.
result Neutrals broaden turbulent field amplitudes and increase shearing rates.
A new drift detection method based on autoregressive models.
problem Concept drift in real-world data leads to decreased model performance.
method Autoregressive based drift detection method (ADDM).
result ADDM outperforms state-of-the-art drift detection methods.
Adaptive sampling detects local concept drift with limited labels.
problem Detecting local concept drift in dynamic environments with scarce labels.
method Combines residual-based exploration and exploitation with EWMA monitoring.
result Superior performance in label efficiency and drift detection accuracy.
Algorithm detects concept drift and adapts models in streaming data.
problem Concept drift in streaming data renders models inaccurate.
method Adaptive learning algorithm that detects drifts and reacts to them.
result Risk competitive to an algorithm with perfect drift knowledge.
Classifiers operating in a dynamic, real world environment, are vulnerable to adversarial activity, which causes the data distribution to change over time. These changes are traditionally referred to as concept drift, and several approaches have been developed in literature to deal with the problem of drift handling an…
Classifies polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on asymptotically paraboloidal manifolds.
problem Classifying polynomial growth solutions to drift-harmonic equations on specific types of manifolds.
method Inductive argument that alternates between constructing and asymptotically controlling drift-harmonic functions.
result All drift-harmonic functions with polynomial growth asymptotically separate variables and dimensions of spaces are computed.
Deep learning compares turbulence models in plasma physics.
problem Predicting edge plasma turbulence in magnetic fusion reactors.
method Physics-informed deep learning framework for comparing two-fluid and gyrokinetic models.
result Good overall agreement between two-fluid theory and gyrokinetic models in turbulent field fluctuations.
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
New method detects drift in high-dimensional data.
problem Understanding and localizing concept drift in learning systems.
method Conformal predictions for drift localization.
result Our approach outperforms existing methods on image datasets.
Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.
problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.
Concept drift is formally defined as the change in joint distribution of a set of input variables X and a target variable y. The two types of drift that are extensively studied are real drift and virtual drift where the former is the change in posterior probabilities p(y|X) while the latter is the change in distributio…
GER learns particle dynamics from unpaired snapshots using physics-informed GANs.
problem Learning particle dynamics from unpaired snapshots with physics constraints.
method Physics-informed generative model to fit particle ensemble distributions.
result Inferred dynamics of particle ensembles governed by SODEs up to 100 dimensions.
PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.
problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.
This paper studies concept drift detectors for financial time series.
problem Improving accuracy on financial time series with concept drifts.
method Three simple concept drift detectors tailored to financial time series.
result Two of the detectors are as effective as state-of-the-art detectors.
Paper proposes a framework to detect adversarial concept drifts under poisoning attacks.
problem Adversarial concept drift in data streams.
method Augmented Restricted Boltzmann Machine with improved gradient computation and energy function.
result High robustness and efficacy of the proposed drift detection framework in adversarial scenarios.
Kernel-Gradient Drifting improves generative modeling for non-Euclidean data.
problem Challenges in generative modeling for non-Euclidean data.
method Replaces Euclidean displacement with kernel-induced directions, exposing score-based structure.
result Kernel-gradient drifting enables state-of-the-art one-step generation for non-Euclidean data.
A framework for evaluating and benchmarking concept drift detection methods
problem Data stream mining challenged by concept drift
method A novel benchmarking framework
result Fair comparisons of drift detection methods
A new method detects concept drift in streaming data using k-means space partitioning.
problem Detecting distribution changes in streaming data.
method Equal intensity k-means space partitioning (EI-kMeans) and heuristic sensitivity improvement.
result EI-kMeans improves drift detection accuracy and sensitivity.
Visual analytics tool detects and corrects concept drift in data streams.
problem Concept drift causes inaccurate predictions in evolving data.
method DriftVis combines drift detection and visualization.
result Visual analytics supports detection, examination, and correction of concept drift.
CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.
problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.
Gradient-based methods for games suffer from discrete update steps that cause drift, affecting performance.
problem Gradient-based methods for two-player games suffer from drift due to discrete update steps.
method Derived modified continuous dynamical systems to closely follow the discrete dynamics of games.
result Identified distinct components of discretization drift that can alter or destabilize game performance.
Paper introduces a method to explain concept drift using counterfactual explanations.
problem Understanding the features where concept drift occurs for better model adjustment.
method Formal definition and algorithm based on counterfactual explanations.
result Demonstrates usefulness of the method in various examples.