A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Ridge regression reveals surprising high-dimensional behaviors via random matrix theory.
A Kyle-inspired model with adaptive agents explains excess volatility and volatility clustering.
A new concept of causality for abstract phenomena.
Efficient event generation for collider phenomenology using parallel Langevin sampling and learned Stein diagnostics.
Natural language processing (NLP) can be done using either top-down (theory driven) and bottom-up (data driven) approaches, which we call mechanistic and phenomenological respectively. The approaches are frequently considered to stand in opposition to each other. Examining some recent approaches in deep learning we arg…
Study detects P-type bifurcations in single system realizations using unreliable kernel density estimates.
MaxEnt framework recovers standard model selection procedures and identifies the most generalizable model.
We introduce a price impact model which accounts for finite market depth, tightness and resilience. Its coupled bid- and ask-price dynamics induce convex liquidity costs. We provide existence of an optimal solution to the classical problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal liquidation wealth at a finite plan…
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This captures the fact that correlations determine the optimal portfolio but are affe…
Statistical physics explains deep learning's feature learning capacity.
Starting from a relativistic phenomenology of anyons in crystals, we discuss the concept of relativistic interaction and the need to unify electromagnetism and gravitation within the Spencer cohomology of Lie equations. Then, from the sophisticated non-linear Spencer complex of the Poincaré and conformal Lie pseudogrou…
We begin an exploration of parametric Backlund transformations for hyperbolic Monge-Ampere systems. We compute invariants for such transformations and explore the behavior of four examples regarding their invariants, symmetries, and conservation laws. We prove some preliminary results and indicate directions for furthe…
Noise-driven neural networks emerge modular structures, improving robustness and generalization.
The study provides precise asymptotic theory for in-context learning by Transformers.
A model for the phenomenological description of tick-by-tick share prices in a stock exchange is introduced. It is based on mixtures of compound Poisson processes. Preliminary results based on Monte Carlo simulation show that this model can reproduce various stylized facts.
Deep learning models can have low bias and variance, contrary to classical theory.
Over the past three decades, black holes have played an important role in quantum gravity, mathematical physics, numerical relativity and gravitational wave phenomenology. However, conceptual settings and mathematical models used to discuss them have varied considerably from one area to another. Over the last five year…
This paper reviews some of the phenomenological models which have been introduced to incorporate the scaling properties of financial data. It also illustrates a microscopic model, based on heterogeneous interacting agents, which provides a possible explanation for the complex dynamics of markets' returns. Scaling and m…
A stochastic model for pure-jump diffusion (the compound renewal process) can be used as a zero-order approximation and as a phenomenological description of tick-by-tick price fluctuations. This leads to an exact and explicit general formula for the martingale price of a European call option. A complete derivation of t…
In the framework of Lorentzian warped products, we study the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmological model to investigate non-smooth curvatures associated with multiple discontinuities involved in the evolution of the universe. In particular we analyze non-smooth features of the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walke…
The Epps effect helps distinguish between continuous and discrete financial tick data.
This paper analyzes how diffusion models learn and generalize concepts.
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
We introduce a combinatorial model based on measured foliations in surfaces which captures the phenomenology of open/closed string interactions. The predicted equations are derived in this model, and new equations can be discovered as well. In particular, several new equations together with known transformations genera…
Statistical modeling of nuclear data provides a novel approach to nuclear systematics complementary to established theoretical and phenomenological approaches based on quantum theory. Continuing previous studies in which global statistical modeling is pursued within the general framework of machine learning theory, we …
New metric measures dynamical richness without relying on accuracy.
In this paper are made some considerations of the application of phenomenological thermodynamics in risk analysis for the transaction on financial markets, using the concept of economic entropy and the macrostate parameter introduced by us in a previous works [15,16]. The investment risk diagrams for a number of Romani…
We discuss superstatistics theory of labour productivity. Productivity distribution across workers, firms and industrial sectors are studied empirically and found to obey power-distributions, in sharp contrast to the equilibrium theories of mainstream economics. The Pareto index is found to decrease with the level of a…
Heterotic vacua of string theory are realised, at large radius, by a compact threefold with vanishing first Chern class together with a choice of stable holomorphic vector bundle. These form a wide class of potentially realistic four-dimensional vacua of string theory. Despite all their phenomenological promise, there …
In this paper we present a rather general phenomenological theory of tick-by-tick dynamics in financial markets. Many well-known aspects, such as the Lévy scaling form, follow as particular cases of the theory. The theory fully takes into account the non-Markovian and non-local character of financial time series. Predi…
Statistical mechanics explains learning in large neural networks near interpolation.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
We review ideas on temporal dependences and recurrences in discrete time series from several areas of natural and social sciences. We revisit existing studies and redefine the relevant observables in the language of copulas (joint laws of the ranks). We propose that copulas provide an appropriate mathematical framework…
The article presents a translation of some widespread financial terminology into the language of decision theory. For instance, financial leverage can be regarded as an object of choice or a decision. We show how the optics of decision theory allows perceiving the recently introduced metrics of see-through-leverage, wh…
The common assumption of universal behavior in stock market data can sometimes lead to false conclusions. In statistical physics, the Hurst exponents characterizing long-range correlations are often closely related to universal exponents. We show, that in the case of time series of the traded value, these Hurst exponen…
The present paper analyses the formal parallelism existing between the laws of thermodynamics and some economic principles. Based on previous works, we shall show how the existence in Economics of principles analogous to those in thermodynamics involves the occurrence of economic events that remind of well-known phenom…
Using an exhaustive list of Japanese bankruptcy in 1997, we discover a Zipf law for the distribution of total liabilities of bankrupted firms in high debt range. The life-time of these bankrupted firms has exponential distribution in correlation with entry rate of new firms. We also show that the debt and size are high…
We study a phenomenological model for the continuous double auction, equivalent to two independent queues. The continuous double auction defines a continuous-time random walk for trade prices. The conditions for ergodicity of the auction are derived and, as a consequence, three possible regimes in the behavior …
Linear memory stores associations up to a logarithmic scale, but listwise retrieval can handle a quadratic scale.
This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity, with a prefactor which is comparable to the spot rate volatility. This suggests th…
CHEER boosts poor models using rich model knowledge.
Gauge symmetries are a cornerstone of modern physics but they come with technical difficulties when it comes to quantization, to accurately describe particles phenomenology or to extract observables in general. These shortcomings must be met by essentially finding a way to effectively reduce gauge symmetries. We propos…
Consider a Riemannian metric on two-torus. We prove that the question of existence of polynomial first integrals leads naturally to a remarkable system of quasi-linear equations which turns out to be a Rich system of conservation laws. This reduces the question of integrability to the question of existence of smooth (q…
The simplest field theory description of the multivariate statistics of forward rate variations over time and maturities, involves a quadratic action containing a gradient squared rigidity term. However, this choice leads to a spurious kink (infinite curvature) of the normalized correlation function for coinciding matu…
Study explores properties of bipartite knots.
The mass, or binding energy, is the basis property of the atomic nucleus. It determines its stability, and reaction and decay rates. Quantifying the nuclear binding is important for understanding the origin of elements in the universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the nucleosynthesis in stars often take …
The paper explains the richness scale of wide neural networks.