arXiv research

By generalizing the measurements on the game experiments of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, we study the dynamical pattern in a representative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE). The DSGE model describes the entanglements of the three variables (output gap [$y$], inflation [$π$] and nominal interest rate [$…

We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin…

Generative diffusion models exhibit phase transitions in statistical mechanics, impacting their performance.

Model shows phase transitions in asset pricing with market maker incentives.

We study a class of heterogeneous agent-based models which are based on a basic set of principles, and the most fundamental operations of an economic system: trade and product transformations. A basic guiding principle is scale invariance, which means that the dynamics of the economy should not depend on the units used…

EP learns like BPTT but with local weight updates.

We give an elementary derivation of the Montgomery phase formula for the motion of an Euler top, using only basic facts about the Euler equation and parallel transport on the 2-sphere (whose holonomy is seen to be responsible for the geometric phase). We also give an approximate geometric interpretation of the geometri…

We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex systems by identifying three of them on real-life financial markets. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and semi-analytical evidences for the existence of these phase transitions, by c…

Phase segregation, the process by which the components of a binary mixture spontaneously separate, is a key process in the evolution and design of many chemical, mechanical, and biological systems. In this work, we present a data-driven approach for the learning, modeling, and prediction of phase segregation. A direct …

New model explains market dynamics with phase transitions and non-linear interactions.

In this paper we explore the functional correlation approach to operational risk. We consider networks with heterogeneous a-priori conditional and unconditional failure probability. In the limit of sparse connectivity, self-consistent expressions for the dynamical evolution of order parameters are obtained. Under equil…

EP algorithm improved for CNNs and real-time learning.

We examine the out-of-equilibrium phase reported by Plerou {\it et. al.} in Nature, {\bf 421}, 130 (2003) using the data of the New York stock market (NYSE) between the years 2001 --2002. We find that the observed two phase phenomenon is an artifact of the definition of the control parameter coupled with the nature of …

Study of phase separation and geometry on a closed elastic curve, including dynamics and free energy minimization.

The biological plausibility of the backpropagation algorithm has long been doubted by neuroscientists. Two major reasons are that neurons would need to send two different types of signal in the forward and backward phases, and that pairs of neurons would need to communicate through symmetric bidirectional connections. …

The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method. When technologies are strictly inefficient, a phase transition occurs upon increas…

Essay combines thermodynamics, economics, and geobiodynamics to model complex systems.

During reactive transport modeling, the computational cost associated with chemical reaction calculations is often 10-100 times higher than that of transport calculations. Most of these costs results from chemical equilibrium calculations that are performed at least once in every mesh cell and at every time step of the…

Agents trained with reinforcement learning deviate from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.

We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity on fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the repeated use of life extension techniques and show that they represent a novel …

The study uses the Merton model to estimate PD and finds a phase transition affecting convergence speed.

Study on liquid-vapor interfaces in stable equilibrium without assuming prior regularity.

Yard-Sale (YS) is a stochastic multiplicative wealth-exchange model with two phases: a stable one where wealth is shared, and an unstable one where wealth condenses onto one agent. YS is here studied numerically on 1d rings, 2d square lattices, and random graphs with variable average coordination, comparing its propert…

Machine learning improves probing of quantum systems via synchronization.

Deep neural networks near edge of chaos show universal scaling laws.

Generative model for condensed matter using Riemannian flow matching.

We study the competitive equilibrium of large random economies with linear activities using methods of statistical mechanics. We focus on economies with $C$ commodities, $N$ firms, each running a randomly drawn linear technology, and one consumer. We derive, in the limit $N,C\to\infty$ with $n=N/C$ fixed, a complete de…

Machine learning predicts critical points for directed percolation models.

Market confidence is essential for successful investing. By incorporating multi-market into the evolutionary minority game, we investigate the effects of investor beliefs on the evolution of collective behaviors and asset prices. When there exists another investment opportunity, market confidence, including overconfide…

The paper uses geometry to understand how neural networks learn.

Continuum mechanics theory describes skin's complex anisotropic behavior.

Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain less well understood in theory. In this paper, we propose a new analytic paradigm …

We consider free and proper cotangent-lifted symmetries of Hamiltonian systems. For the special case of G = SO(3), we construct symplectic slice coordinates around an arbitrary point. We thus obtain a parametrisation of the phase space suitable for the study of dynamics near relative equilibria, in particular for the B…

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing …

We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes into account (i) the price formation delay between decision and investment by the …

This paper studies the critical dynamics of random surfaces, focusing on area and genus evolution.

Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas trust begets trust, panic also begets…

Introduces strong equilibrium for time-inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time.

Model shows how relaxed leverage can lead to asset price bubbles.

Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibi…

A general nonlinear logistic equation has been proposed to model long-time saturation in industrial growth. An integral solution of this equation has been derived for any arbitrary degree of nonlinearity. A time scale for the onset of nonlinear saturation in industrial growth can be estimated from an equipartition cond…

Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.

We prove the existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with proportional transaction costs on an infinite time horizon and analyze the effect of transaction costs on the endogenously determined interest rate. Two agents receive exogenous, unspanned income and choose between consumption and investing into an annuity.…

We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions pr…

A new method relaxes molecules without needing non-equilibrium data.

Existence of Radner equilibrium proven with growing population.

Study how transaction costs impact stock returns and holdings in equilibrium.

Equilibrium found for multi-agent trading with transaction costs.