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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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145291436581 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for perturbation prediction

Generative Intervention Models predict perturbation effects without knowing the underlying mechanisms.

problem Predicting perturbation effects when the mechanisms are unknown.
method Generative Intervention Models (GIM) that map perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a causal model.
result GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions and infer underlying perturbation mechanisms.

Novel framework predicts cell responses to perturbations using GRNs.

problem Predicting cellular responses to perturbations for drug discovery and personalized therapeutics.
method Graph variational Bayesian causal inference framework with refined GRNs and robust estimator.
result Enhanced model performance and robust estimation of perturbation effects.

The paper tackles extrapolation of gene knockouts effects on RNA counts.

problem Modeling effects of gene knockouts on RNA counts for new perturbations.
method Formulated as a latent variable model with additive perturbation effects, proved identifiability, proposed PDAE for estimation.
result PDAE can accurately predict effects of unseen but identifiable perturbations.

This work improves structured prediction by learning the balance between signal and random noise.

problem Structured prediction with random perturbations.
method Learning the variance of randomized structured predictors to balance signal and noise.
result Learning the balance improves structured prediction effectiveness.

DANCE improves saliency maps by adding subtle input variations.

problem Poor performance of saliency methods in saturated gradients, adversarial perturbations, and inter-feature dependence.
method Two-step procedure: 1) Perturbation mechanism, 2) Aggregation of saliency maps.
result DANCE saliency method outperforms existing methods qualitatively and quantitatively.

Study robustness of split conformal prediction under adversarial attacks.

problem Ensuring distribution-free coverage guarantees in CP under adversarial conditions.
method Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on split conformal prediction robustness.
result Prediction coverage varies with calibration-time attack strength, enabling control over coverage under adversarial tests.

Missing data imputation can help improve the performance of prediction models in situations where missing data hide useful information. This paper compares methods for imputing missing categorical data for supervised classification tasks. We experiment on two machine learning benchmark datasets with missing categorical…

2016-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New method defends deep nets against large perturbations perceptible to humans.

problem Vulnerability of deep nets to adversarial attacks with perceptible but not changing predictions.
method Oracle-Aligned Adversarial Training (OA-AT) to align network predictions with Oracle's.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance at large perturbation bounds (L-inf of 16/255 on CIFAR-10).

New approach to adversarial robustness with non-uniform perturbations.

problem Real-world adversaries craft adversarial examples with non-uniform perturbations.
method Proposes non-uniform perturbations based on feature dependencies and data distribution.
result Shows improved robustness to real-world attacks compared to uniform perturbations.

Introduces TPV to analyze model robustness without labels.

problem Analyzing post-training robustness of machine learning models.
method Parameter perturbations and test prediction variance (TPV) as a unifying framework.
result TPV connects various perturbations under a single lens, providing insights into model stability.

Ensemble learning that can be used to combine the predictions from multiple learners has been widely applied in pattern recognition, and has been reported to be more robust and accurate than the individual learners. This ensemble logic has recently also been more applied in feature selection. There are basically two st…

2018-11-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Study reveals class-dependent effects in perturbation-based feature attribution metrics for time series classification.

problem Varying effectiveness of perturbation-based metrics across different classes in time series models.
method Systematic empirical analysis across multiple datasets, model architectures, and perturbation strategies.
result Perturbation-based metrics show varying effectiveness across classes, with some metrics performing better for certain classes.

Adversarial weight perturbations can inject backdoors into trained neural models.

problem Security risk of using publicly available trained models due to backdoors.
method Extended adversarial perturbations to model weights, using a composite loss and projected gradient descent.
result Adversarial weight perturbations can be successfully injected with very small changes, exposing security risks across various tasks.

Paper examines adversarial attacks on weather forecasting models, focusing on TC trajectory prediction.

problem Adversarial attacks can mislead downstream TC trajectory predictions in DLWF models.
method Proposes Cyc-Attack, a method using a surrogate model and skewness-aware loss function to generate adversarial TC paths.
result Cyc-Attack achieves higher true positive rates and lower false alarm rates compared to conventional methods.

A new framework explains GNN predictions by simulating graph structure and feature changes.

problem Lack of transparency in GNN predictions hinders understanding.
method TraP2 framework using a three-layer architecture: Translation, Perturbation, and Paraphrase layers.
result TraP2 achieves 10.2% higher explanation accuracy than state-of-the-art methods.

Simplified equation predicts model sensitivity to data.

problem Understanding model sensitivity to training data is challenging and costly.
method Derived using Bayesian principles, the Memory-Perturbation Equation (MPE) unifies and generalizes existing sensitivity measures.
result Empirical results show sensitivity estimates during training can predict generalization on unseen test data.

New framework maximizes perturbed samples for inverse classification with budget constraints.

problem Maximizing perturbed samples for desired classification outcomes under budget constraints.
method Gradient methods, stochastic processes, Lagrangian relaxations, Gumbel trick.
result Stochastic process-based algorithms outperform in different budget settings.

A new PLL method uses class activation values to improve robustness.

problem Weakly supervised learning with noisy data and adversarial perturbations.
method Subjective logic with class activation values for uncertainty representation and label weight re-distribution.
result More robust predictions under high noise levels, out-of-distribution examples, and adversarial perturbations.

Deep Learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples, i.e.\ images obtained via deliberate imperceptible perturbations, such that the model misclassifies them with high confidence. However, class confidence by itself is an incomplete picture of uncertainty. We therefore use principled Bayesian methods to capture…

2017-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider problems in which a system receives external \emph{perturbations} from time to time. For instance, the system can be a train network in which particular lines are repeatedly disrupted without warning, having an effect on passenger behavior. The goal is to predict changes in the behavior of the system at par…

2019-08-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved superior performance in various prediction tasks, but can be very vulnerable to adversarial examples or perturbations. Therefore, it is crucial to measure the sensitivity of DNNs to various forms of perturbations in real applications. We introduce a novel perturbation manifold …

2019-01-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Perturbation theory improves nonparametric instrumental variable estimation accuracy.

problem Improving nonparametric instrumental variable estimation accuracy in high-dimensional settings.
method Perturbative approach based on physics perturbation theory, extending kernel ridge methods with higher-order corrections.
result First-order perturbative corrections reduce prediction error by up to 99% in high-dimensional ill-defined cases.

This research investigates reliable local explanations for machine listening models.

problem Generating reliable local explanations for machine listening models.
method Investigates the sensitivity of SoundLIME explanations to input perturbations and proposes a novel method for identifying suitable content types.
result SoundLIME explanations are sensitive to the content in occluded input regions, and the average magnitude of input mel-spectrogram bins is the most suitable content type for temporal explanations.

We present PROPS, a lightweight transfer learning mechanism for sequential data. PROPS learns probabilistic perturbations around the predictions of one or more arbitrarily complex, pre-trained black box models (such as recurrent neural networks). The technique pins the black-box prediction functions to "source nodes" o…

2019-03-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Wide networks learn from adversarial perturbations effectively.

problem Understanding why adversarial examples deceive classifiers and transfer between models.
method Assumed wide two-layer networks, proved with theoretical analysis.
result Adversarial perturbations contain class-specific features for networks to generalize.

Adversarial fog tests autonomous navigation models.

problem Neural networks are fooled by adversarial perturbations, but fog naturally creates similar perturbations.
method Introduced a new type of adversarial perturbation using generative models and Cycle-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks.
result Generated adversarial fog images help test autonomous navigation models.

SGD converges with perturbed forward-backward passes, explained by geometric amplification.

problem Analyzing convergence of SGD with perturbed forward-backward passes in composite optimization.
method Characterized propagation and amplification of perturbations, derived convergence guarantees for non-convex and PL objectives.
result Perturbations cascade through the computational graph, affecting convergence order under specific conditions.

The paper addresses online prediction in marginally stable systems with bounded perturbations.

problem Online prediction in marginally stable linear dynamical systems with adversarial or stochastic perturbations.
method The online least-squares algorithm is used to achieve sublinear regret, with a refined regret analysis and a structural lemma.
result The online least-squares algorithm achieves sublinear regret, with polynomial dependence on the system's parameters.

Machine learning methods in general and Deep Neural Networks in particular have shown to be vulnerable to adversarial perturbations. So far this phenomenon has mainly been studied in the context of whole-image classification. In this contribution, we analyse how adversarial perturbations can affect the task of semantic…

2017-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper assesses machine learning robustness with covariate perturbations.

problem Ensuring robustness of machine learning models against adversarial attacks and data changes.
method Proposes a framework using covariate perturbation techniques to assess model robustness.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach in comparing robustness across models and identifying instabilities.

While deep learning is remarkably successful on perceptual tasks, it was also shown to be vulnerable to adversarial perturbations of the input. These perturbations denote noise added to the input that was generated specifically to fool the system while being quasi-imperceptible for humans. More severely, there even exi…

2017-04-19abs ↗pdf ↗