A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Causal ML methods failed to validate their personalized treatment effects in two large trials.
problem Validating causal machine learning methods for personalized treatment effects in precision medicine.
method Assessed 17 mainstream causal heterogeneity ML methods using two large randomized controlled trials.
result None of the ML methods reliably validated their performance, internal or external, showing significant discrepancies between training and test data.
The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, has many important applications, from precision medicine to recommender…
We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for personalized assessments. Recent work has focused on how to learn CATE under unconfoundedne…
Personalized medicine seeks to identify the causal effect of treatment for a particular patient as opposed to a clinical population at large. Most investigators estimate such personalized treatment effects by regressing the outcome of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) on patient covariates. The realized value of the ou…
The paper develops a reinforcement learning model to estimate ad impact considering delayed and cumulative effects.
problem Accurately estimating ad impact considering delayed and long-term effects, cumulative impacts, and customer heterogeneity.
method Modeling ad bidding as a Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) with delayed Poisson rewards, proposing a two-stage maximum likelihood estimator and reinforcement learning algorithm.
result Achieves a near-optimal regret bound of O~(dH2T), validating the approach through simulation experiments.
Personalized medicine has become an important part of medicine, for instance predicting individual drug responses based on genomic information. However, many current statistical methods are not tailored to this task, because they overlook the individual heterogeneity of patients. In this paper, we look at personalized …
The paper estimates personalized treatment effects in medical settings with competing risks.
problem Estimating treatment effectiveness for specific events in the presence of alternative event types.
method Meta-learners combining Cox regression or random survival forests for risk modeling and elastic net regression or random forests for direct CATE modeling.
result Compared meta-learners in multiple simulation settings, providing practical guidance for model selection.
This paper addresses the problem of emotion recognition from physiological signals. Features are extracted and ranked based on their effect on classification accuracy. Different classifiers are compared. The inter-subject variability and the personalization effect are thoroughly investigated, through trial-based and su…
Federated learning is a distributed, on-device computation framework that enables training global models without exporting sensitive user data to servers. In this work, we describe methods to extend the federation framework to evaluate strategies for personalization of global models. We present tools to analyze the eff…
Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action a to take for a target unit after observing its covariates x~ and predicted outcom…
In many practical tasks it is needed to estimate an effect of treatment on individual level. For example, in medicine it is essential to determine the patients that would benefit from a certain medicament. In marketing, knowing the persons that are likely to buy a new product would reduce the amount of spam. In this ch…
Though used extensively, the concept and process of machine learning (ML) personalization have generally received little attention from academics, practitioners, and the general public. We describe the ML approach as relying on the metaphor of the person as a feature vector and contrast this with humanistic views of th…
The emerging paradigm of federated learning strives to enable collaborative training of machine learning models on the network edge without centrally aggregating raw data and hence, improving data privacy. This sharply deviates from traditional machine learning and necessitates the design of algorithms robust to variou…
Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer extensively from measurement error and even the timing of the treatments is uncertain…
Boosting-inspired framework for federated learning with progressive model personalization.
problem Statistical heterogeneity across clients in federated learning.
method Construct an ensemble of personalized models, progressively increasing the depth of the personalized component while controlling its effective complexity.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art PFL methods under heterogeneous data distributions.
Current clinical practice guidelines for managing Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) account for general cardiovascular risk factors. However, they do not present a framework that considers personalized patient-specific characteristics. Using the electronic health records of 21,460 patients, we created data-driven models fo…