Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.
problem Optimizing investment strategies over multiple periods with risk and return considerations.
method Developed a Bellman principle for discrete time multi-period mean-variance models, leading to dynamic optimal strategies and efficient frontiers.
result Dynamic optimal strategies can achieve higher returns with lower risk compared to the 1/n strategy.
This paper optimizes periodic dividend strategies for Lévy processes with transaction costs.
problem Maximizing dividends for spectrally negative Lévy processes with fixed transaction costs.
method Using periodic strategies and fixed transaction costs, the paper calculates the value function and shows optimality conditions.
result A sufficient condition for optimality is that the Lévy measure is completely monotonic.
Study optimal periodic dividend strategies for risky businesses with transaction costs.
problem Optimal periodic dividend strategies for spectrally positive Lévy risk processes with fixed transaction costs.
method Investigates periodic (bu,bl) strategies for a Poisson arrival process of decision times. result A periodic (bu,bl) strategy is optimal with lump sum dividends net of transaction costs. p-index approach shows efficient-contrarian strategy outperforms others in low-sentiment periods
problem Evaluating investment strategies in stock markets
method Using p-index risk measure with European put option
result Efficient-contrarian strategy outperforms others in low-sentiment periods
Paper proposes a novel trading strategy combining clustering and reinforcement learning for multi-period portfolio management.
problem Developing an effective trading strategy for multi-period portfolio management.
method The paper integrates clustering techniques with reinforcement learning to categorize and manage stocks across multiple trading periods.
result The proposed strategy outperforms conventional techniques in various metrics, achieving an average return of 151% over 360 trading periods.
AMSAs adaptively manage crypto-currency trading by selecting multiple strategies based on market conditions.
problem Maximizing gains in volatile crypto-currency markets with high uncertainty.
method AMSAs use multiple sub-agents with different strategies, dynamically selecting them based on market conditions.
result AMSAs can achieve high positive alpha in long-term crypto-currency trading.
Avanzi et al. (2016) recently studied an optimal dividend problem where dividends are paid both periodically and continuously with different transaction costs. In the Brownian model with Poissonian periodic dividend payment opportunities, they showed that the optimal strategy is either of the pure-continuous, pure-peri…
In this paper, we revisit the optimal periodic dividend problem, in which dividend payments can only be made at the jump times of an independent Poisson process. In the dual (spectrally positive Lévy) model, recent results have shown the optimality of a periodic barrier strategy, which pays dividends at Poissonian divi…
In the past 20 years, momentum or trend following strategies have become an established part of the investor toolbox. We introduce a new way of analyzing momentum strategies by looking at the information ratio (IR, average return divided by standard deviation). We calculate the theoretical IR of a momentum strategy, an…
The paper analyzes optimal dividend strategies for risky businesses, considering both periodic and extraordinary payments.
problem Maximizing dividends paid until ruin, net of transaction costs.
method Modeling cash surplus as Brownian motion, considering different types of dividends with transaction costs.
result Optimal strategies depend on business profitability and transaction costs, sometimes including liquidation.
Model explains periodic trading in financial markets through game theory.
problem Understanding periodic trading activities in financial markets.
method Mean-field liquidation game with major-minor players.
result Existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium established.
This study optimizes trading strategy parameters using walk-forward techniques and finds robust performance.
problem Optimizing trading strategy performance through parameter optimization.
method Walk-forward optimization with varying window lengths, tested on Bitcoin, Binance Coin, and Ethereum.
result The strategy outperforms Buy-and-Hold with lower drawdown and higher Information Ratio.
An ensemble method enhances cryptocurrency trading strategies using deep reinforcement learning.
problem Improving generalization performance in stochastic cryptocurrency trading environments.
method Model selection and mixture distribution policy to ensemble deep reinforcement learning models.
result Improved out-of-sample performance compared to benchmarks.
Study optimal portfolio strategies with periodic evaluation under short-selling prohibition.
problem Optimal portfolio strategies with periodic evaluation under short-selling prohibition.
method Reformulate the original problem into an auxiliary one-period optimization problem and introduce dual control problem.
result Derive and verify the value function and optimal constrained portfolio for the original problem.
Study classifies stock price data into stationary and non-stationary periods for mechanical trading.
problem Classifying stock price fluctuations into stationary and non-stationary periods for trading.
method Stationarity analysis using KM2O-Langevin theory and trend-based indicators for stationary periods, oscillator-based indicators for non-stationary periods. result Back testing confirms the strategy is a safe trading strategy with small maximum drawdown.
Semistatic trading strategies can be taken to limits in discrete time.
problem Limits of semistatic trading strategies in discrete time.
method Analysis in full generality for a two-period model, and under a probabilistic condition for multi-period, multi-stock models.
result Pointwise limits of semistatic trading strategies are again semistatic strategies.
Proposes a deep RL approach for high-frequency market making using tick data and periodic signals.
problem Challenges in high-frequency market making due to tick-level data complexity and high trading volume.
method Integrates tick-level data with periodic signals using deep reinforcement learning.
result The proposed framework outperforms existing methods in profitability and risk management.
In this article, inspired by Shi, et al. we investigate the optimal portfolio selection with one risk-free asset and one risky asset in a multiple period setting under cumulative prospect theory (CPT). Compared with their study, our novelty is that we consider a stochastic benchmark, and portfolio constraints. We test …
The paper proposes a dynamic risk measure approach for evaluating defined-contribution pension funds.
problem Periodic evaluation of defined-contribution pension funds to manage risk and improve projections.
method Dynamic risk measure criterion, model-free reinforcement learning, Lee-Carter mortality model.
result Periodic evaluations lead to more risk-averse strategies, while mortality improvements encourage risk-seeking behaviors.
Study on investment strategy for agents with periodic preferences and discounting.
problem Investment decisions by agents with periodic S-shaped preferences and present bias.
method Infinite-horizon, continuous-time portfolio selection problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting.
result Time-consistent planning strategy can be formulated as an equilibrium to a static mean field game.
We study the profitability of optimal mean reversion trading strategies in the US equity market. Different from regular pair trading practice, we apply maximum likelihood method to construct the optimal static pairs trading portfolio that best fits the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and rigorously estimate the parameters.…
Game theory model for optimal trading with end-of-day constraints.
problem Optimal trading strategy in a game between slow and fast traders.
method Coupled stochastic control problems, Fredholm integral equation solution.
result Explicit solution to the game with profitable strategies for both players.
The growth-optimal portfolio optimization strategy pioneered by Kelly is based on constant portfolio rebalancing which makes it sensitive to transaction fees. We examine the effect of fees on an example of a risky asset with a binary return distribution and show that the fees may give rise to an optimal period of portf…
This paper proposes a new method to optimize portfolio allocation with transaction costs using Wiener chaos expansion.
problem Optimizing portfolio allocation with transaction costs in multi-period settings.
method Wiener chaos expansion approach to represent and solve the optimization problem.
result The proposed method finds an optimal strategy for portfolio allocation with transaction costs.
The p-index improves investment performance for NYSE stocks but not for SSE stocks.
problem Improving investment performance for stocks using the p-index.
method Comparing different p-ratio strategies and empirical efficient frontiers for SSE and NYSE stocks.
result The p-index enhances investment performance for NYSE stocks but not for SSE stocks.
Withdrawal guarantees ensure the periodical deduction of a constant dollar-amount from a fund investment for a fixed number of periods. If the fund depletes before the last withdrawal, the guarantor has to finance the outstanding withdrawals. We derive a robust hedging strategy which leads to closed form solutions for …
Improved trading strategy using deep learning and changepoint detection for market changes.
problem Traditional momentum strategies struggle with rapid market changes, especially after trend reversals.
method Inserted an online changepoint detection module into a Deep Momentum Network (DMN) pipeline.
result Improvement in Sharpe ratio by one-third over 1995-2020 period, especially beneficial in nonstationary periods.
We derive an optimal strategy for minimizing the expected loss in the two-period economy when a pivotal decision needs to be made during the first time period and cannot be subsequently reversed. Our interest in the problem has been motivated by the classical shopper's dilemma during the Black Friday promotion period, …
This study evaluates a dynamic pairs trading strategy in cryptocurrencies using cointegration tests.
problem Improving profitability and risk management in cryptocurrency trading.
method Engle-Granger, KSS, Johansen tests; optimal look-back window; mean-reversion speed calibration; microstructure limitations consideration.
result The strategy outperforms naive buy-and-hold in Bitmex exchange with low maximum drawdown.
Study finds consumers are more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
problem Understanding consumer demand during livestreaming lifecycle.
method Examined consumer demand for live events and recorded versions using data from a livestreaming platform.
result Demand is more price-sensitive before livestreams than after.
Study quantifies model risk in dynamic portfolio selection using KL divergence.
problem Model risk in financial portfolio selection under uncertainty.
method Defined model risk as KL divergence loss, solved nonlinear equations for optimal robust strategy.
result Optimal robust strategy can be obtained semi-analytically in worst case scenario.
This note provides a neat and enjoyable expansion and application of the magnificent Ordentlich-Cover theory of "universal portfolios." I generalize Cover's benchmark of the best constant-rebalanced portfolio (or 1-linear trading strategy) in hindsight by considering the best bilinear trading strategy determined in hin…
Original abstract: "We construct periodic solutions of nonlinear wave equations using analytic continuation. The construction applies in particular to Einstein equations, leading to infinite-dimensional families of time-periodic solutions of the vacuum, or of the Einstein-Maxwell-dilaton-scalar fields-Yang-Mills-Higgs-…
In this article, we consider the optimal execution problem associated to accelerated share repurchase contracts. When firms want to repurchase their own shares, they often enter such a contract with a bank. The bank buys the shares for the firm and is paid the average market price over the execution period, the length …
Multi-parameter cognition in a cognitive radio network (CRN) provides a more thorough understanding of the radio environments, and could potentially lead to far more intelligent and efficient spectrum usage for a secondary user. In this paper, we investigate the multi-parameter cognition problem for a CRN where the pri…
LLMs struggle to outperform markets over long periods and diverse stocks.
problem Overstated effectiveness of LLM-based investing strategies due to biases.
method FINSABER framework for systematic backtests over two decades and 100+ symbols.
result Previously reported LLM advantages deteriorate significantly under broader evaluation.
Optimized portfolio turnover strategies enhance wealth and reduce costs.
problem Minimizing transaction costs and maximizing wealth in small to medium-sized portfolios.
method Dynamic multi-period model with column generation algorithm to minimize turnover constraints.
result The proposed model leads to higher portfolio values and lower transaction costs compared to a naive model.
We consider the optimal trade execution strategies for a large portfolio of single stocks proposed by Almgren (2003). This framework accounts for a nonlinear impact of trades on average market prices. The results of Almgren (2003) are based on the assumption that no shares of assets per unit of time are trade at the be…
A large class of trading strategies focus on opportunities offered by the yield curve. In particular, a set of yield curve trading strategies are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts. Based on these strategies' positive performance, a multiple pairs trading strategy on major currency pairs was implemente…
Counting periodic geodesics of bounded length and commutator structure on hyperbolic surfaces.
problem Counting periodic geodesics with specific commutator structure.
method Reduction to counting critical realizations of trivalent graphs.
result Asymptotic count of geodesics with bounded length and commutator structure.
Optimal stock trading strategy with market orders and limit orders in a risky market.
problem Finding the best time and amount to place market and limit orders to minimize costs.
method Analyzes single and multi-period models with limit and market orders, considering liquidity risk.
result Optimal placement of market and limit orders can be determined under different market conditions.
Option pricing is an integral part of modern financial risk management. The well-known Black and Scholes (1973) formula is commonly used for this purpose. This paper is an attempt to extend their work to a situation in which the unconditional volatility of the original asset is increasing during a certain period of tim…
We propose a prediction model based on the minority game in which traders continuously evaluate a complete set of trading strategies with different memory lengths using the strategies' past performance. Based on the chosen trading strategy they determine their prediction of the movement for the following time period of…
Optimizes trading strategy considering alpha decay and transaction costs.
problem Maximizing reward in a multi-period portfolio with transaction costs and alpha decay.
method Formulated as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, solved using a modified value iteration algorithm with convergence proof and asymptotic analysis.
result Characterized optimal trading policy that maximizes average expected reward.
Informer model with GMADL loss outperforms benchmarks in high frequency Bitcoin trading.
problem Developing automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data.
method Informer architecture with RMSE, GMADL, and Quantile loss functions.
result Informer model with GMADL loss function outperforms benchmarks in trading outcomes.
From the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation for the value function we derive a non-linear partial differential equation for the optimal portfolio strategy (the dynamic control). The equation is general in the sense that it does not depend on the terminal utility and provides additional analytical insight for some optimal…
We study optimal investment problems under the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A CPT investor makes investment decisions in a single-period financial market with transaction costs. The objective is to seek the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the prospect value of the investor's final wealth. W…
We consider a basic model of multi-period trading, which can be used to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. We describe a framework for single-period optimization, where the trades in each period are found by solving a convex optimization problem that trades off expected return, risk, transaction cost and h…