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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

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25497498 · May 202619922001200920182026
48 results for periodic collapse

The paper models asset and bond prices with equations leading to periodic bubbles that collapse into crashes.

problem Modeling the formation and collapse of asset price bubbles.
method Developed a reduced model of asset and bond prices using coupled continuous time equations.
result The model predicts the emergence of periodically collapsing bubbles, which are analogous to phase transitions.

The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of a bubble period with those of the anti-bubble period in stock markets. We investigate the statistical properties of daily data for the Nikkei 225 index in the 28-year period from January 1975 to April 2003, corresponded to the periods of bubbles and anti-bub…

2004-01-09abs ↗pdf ↗

KL annealing helps VAEs avoid posterior collapse and overfitting.

problem Posterior collapse and overfitting in VAEs.
method Theoretical analysis of learning dynamics with KL annealing.
result Posterior collapse is inevitable when ββ exceeds a threshold.

We propose that imitation between traders and their herding behaviour not only lead to speculative bubbles with accelerating over-valuations of financial markets possibly followed by crashes, but also to ``anti-bubbles'' with decelerating market devaluations following all-time highs. For this, we propose a simple marke…

1999-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified model explains income inequality across countries.

problem Understanding and explaining income inequality across different countries.
method Analytical model based on a master equation with growth and reset terms, tested on real data.
result Income distributions collapse on a master-curve when normalized, suggesting a universal pattern.

The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly inter…

2013-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corr…

2006-03-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.

problem Capturing the micro-level dynamics of investor behavior and panic selling.
method Introducing a cubic function of market momentum to model trend-following and sudden crashes.
result The model successfully replicates complex, nonlinear bubble dynamics.

Bayesian deep learning faces posterior collapse due to likelihood vs. prior competition.

problem Posterior collapse in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Identified competition between likelihood and prior regularization in a linear latent variable model.
result Posterior collapse is related to neural and dimensional collapse, suggesting a broader learning issue.

A single, stationary topic model such as latent Dirichlet allocation is inappropriate for modeling corpora that span long time periods, as the popularity of topics is likely to change over time. A number of models that incorporate time have been proposed, but in general they either exhibit limited forms of temporal var…

2012-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on Neural Collapse limits in deep learning.

problem Understanding the limits of Neural Collapse in deep learning.
method Investigated Neural Collapse in the context of generalization and feature learning, refining conjectures and conducting experiments.
result Neural Collapse primarily occurs on the train set and not on the test set, suggesting it is an optimization phenomenon with unclear connections to generalization.

Study of collapsed manifolds with bounded Ricci curvature and non-collapsed universal cover.

problem Understanding collapsed manifolds with specific Ricci curvature properties.
method Ricci flow techniques applied to non-collapsed universal cover.
result Partial extension of nilpotent structural results to global Ricci bounded covering geometry.
Critical Crashescond-mat.stat-mech

We argue that the word ``critical'' in the title is not purely literary. Based on our and other previous work on nonlinear complex dynamical systems, we summarize present evidence, on the Oct. 1929, Oct. 1987, Oct. 1987 Hong-Kong, Aug. 1998 global market events and on the 1985 Forex event, for the hypothesis advanced f…

1999-01-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Mathematical analysis shows annealing prevents mode collapse in Gaussian mixtures.

problem Mode collapse in variational inference for multimodal distributions.
method Analyzed annealing strategies for Gaussian mixtures, derived formulas, and tested on neural networks.
result Appropriately chosen annealing schemes can robustly prevent mode collapse.

Proving NP-completeness of (d,k)(d,k)-collapsibility for dk+2d\geq k+2 except (2,0)(2,0).

problem Determining if a dd-dimensional simplicial complex can be collapsed to a kk-dimensional subcomplex.
method Extending previous works to show NP-completeness for dk+2d\geq k+2.
result NP-completeness of (d,k)(d,k)-collapsibility for dk+2d\geq k+2 except (2,0)(2,0).

New method controls posterior collapse in VAEs without network architecture constraints.

problem Posterior collapse in VAEs reduces diversity of generated samples.
method Introduces Latent Reconstruction (LR) loss to control posterior collapse.
result Controls posterior collapse on various datasets without architectural constraints.

Study collapsing manifolds with boundary and inradius convergence to zero.

problem Characterize the limit spaces and topology of inradius collapsed manifolds.
method Assume lower sectional curvature bounds, second fundamental form bounds, and upper diameter bounds. Analyze the limit spaces as Alexandrov spaces with curvature bounds and determine the topology of singular II-bundles.
result Determine the limit spaces of inradius collapsed manifolds as Alexandrov spaces with curvature uniformly bounded below and characterize the topology of inradius collapsed manifolds.

Collapsibility is a combinatorial strengthening of contractibility. We relate this property to metric geometry by proving the collapsibility of any complex that is CAT(0) with a metric for which all vertex stars are convex. This strengthens and generalizes a result by Crowley. Further consequences of our work are: (1) …

2011-07-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Prove that collapsing CSC metrics can be perturbed to invariant collapsing CSC metrics.

problem Prove that collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics can be perturbed to invariant collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics.
method Prove that a sequence of constant scalar curvature metrics which is collapsing with bounded curvature to a manifold can be perturbed to a sequence of invariant collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics.
result Prove that a sequence of constant scalar curvature metrics which is collapsing with bounded curvature to a manifold can be perturbed to a sequence of invariant collapsing constant scalar curvature metrics.

We will simplify the earlier proofs of Perelman's collapsing theorem of 3-manifolds given by Shioya-Yamaguchi and Morgan-Tian. Among other things, we use Perelman's semi-convex analysis of distance functions to construct the desired local Seifert fibration structure on collapsed 3-manifolds. The verification of Perelma…

2009-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce the theory of strong homotopy types of simplicial complexes. Similarly to classical simple homotopy theory, the strong homotopy types can be described by elementary moves. An elementary move in this setting is called a strong collapse and it is a particular kind of simplicial collapse. The advantage of usi…

2009-07-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep nets exhibit 'Neural Collapse' during training's final phase, simplifying decision-making.

problem Understanding and optimizing deep learning training phases.
method Direct measurements on three deepnet architectures across seven datasets.
result Deep nets exhibit 'Neural Collapse' during training's final phase, simplifying decision-making.

Study tackles criterion collapse in learning criteria, showing conditions for loss minimization.

problem Criterion collapse in optimization, focusing on error probability minimizers.
method Analyzes various learning criteria, including DRO, OCE risks, and non-monotonic criteria.
result Non-monotonic criteria can avoid collapse, while monotonic ones cannot.

Lower Ricci curvature bound prevents first Betti number from dropping more than dimension in collapsing manifolds.

problem Understanding how the first Betti number behaves under manifold collapse with Ricci curvature bounds.
method Analyzing sequences of Riemannian manifolds with lower Ricci curvature bounds.
result The first Betti number cannot drop more than the dimension in collapsing manifolds.