A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Partial model averaging improves Federated Learning performance.
Study Vassiliev invariants and periodic orbits of Axiom A flows.
ADPSGD optimizes SGD convergence by varying averaging periods based on model variance.
We present a geometric proof of the averaging theorem for perturbed dynamical systems on a Riemannian manifold, in the case where the flow of the unperturbed vector field is periodic and the -action associated to this vector field is not necessarily trivial. We generalize the averaging procedure \cite{A…
Adam optimization algorithm can have non-zero average regret under certain conditions.
There are non-vanishing price responses across different stocks in correlated financial markets. We further study this issue by performing different averages, which identify active and passive cross-responses. The two average cross-responses show different characteristic dependences on the time lag. The passive cross-r…
Enhances financial time series forecasting with a multi-period learning framework.
In the past 20 years, momentum or trend following strategies have become an established part of the investor toolbox. We introduce a new way of analyzing momentum strategies by looking at the information ratio (IR, average return divided by standard deviation). We calculate the theoretical IR of a momentum strategy, an…
Paper introduces a new pricing method for electricity swaps and options.
Study classifies stock price data into stationary and non-stationary periods for mechanical trading.
Federated learning is a distributed framework according to which a model is trained over a set of devices, while keeping data localized. This framework faces several systems-oriented challenges which include (i) communication bottleneck since a large number of devices upload their local updates to a parameter server, a…
New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.
An area-preserving diffeomorphism of an annulus has an "action function" which measures how the diffeomorphism distorts curves. The average value of the action function over the annulus is known as the Calabi invariant of the diffeomorphism, while the average value of the action function over a periodic orbit of the di…
We describe the neural-network training framework used in the Kaldi speech recognition toolkit, which is geared towards training DNNs with large amounts of training data using multiple GPU-equipped or multi-core machines. In order to be as hardware-agnostic as possible, we needed a way to use multiple machines without …
The paper extends the market price of risk for electricity swap contracts, incorporating jump risk.
In this paper we consider the problem of minimising drawdown in a portfolio of financial assets. Here drawdown represents the relative opportunity cost of the single best missed trading opportunity over a specified time period. We formulate the problem (minimising average drawdown, maximum drawdown, or a weighted combi…
Investigates the relationship between US money supply and asset indices over 2001-2019.
Paper calculates loan loss after default using Bayesian model.
The use of target networks has been a popular and key component of recent deep Q-learning algorithms for reinforcement learning, yet little is known from the theory side. In this work, we introduce a new family of target-based temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms and provide theoretical analysis on their conver…
Actor-Critic method achieves optimal regret for unichain MDPs.
We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the ma…
Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and demographic factors. Furthermore crisis may trigger different behaviors which re…
We analyze the question whether sliding window time averages applied to stationary increment processes converge to a limit in probability. The question centers on averages, correlations, and densities constructed via time averages of the increment x(t,T)=x(t+T)-x(t)and the assumption is that the increment is distribute…
In this paper we provide compelling evidence of cyclical mean reversion and multiperiod stock return predictability over horizons of about 30 years with a half-life of about 15 years. This implies that the US stock market follows a long-term rhythm where a period of above average returns tends to be followed by a perio…
Communication-efficient SGD algorithms, which allow nodes to perform local updates and periodically synchronize local models, are highly effective in improving the speed and scalability of distributed SGD. However, a rigorous convergence analysis and comparative study of different communication-reduction strategies rem…
We analyze the daily stock data of the Nasdaq Composite index in the 22-year period 1992-2013 and identify market states as clusters of correlation matrices with similar correlation structures. We investigate the stability of the correlation structure of each state by estimating the statistical fluctuations of correlat…
Previous studies of the stock price response to individual trades focused on single stocks. We empirically investigate the price response of one stock to the trades of other stocks. How large is the impact of one stock on others and vice versa? -- This impact of trades on the price change across stocks appears to be tr…
We consider the optimal trade execution strategies for a large portfolio of single stocks proposed by Almgren (2003). This framework accounts for a nonlinear impact of trades on average market prices. The results of Almgren (2003) are based on the assumption that no shares of assets per unit of time are trade at the be…
This case study tests the possibility of prediction for "success" (or "winner") components of four stock & shares market indices in a time period of three years from 02-Jul-2009 to 29-Jun-2012.We compare their performance ain two time frames: initial frame three months at the beginning (02/06/2009-30/09/2009) and the f…
How effective are the most common trading models? The answer may help investors realize upsides to using each model, act as a segue for investors into more complex financial analysis and machine learning, and to increase financial literacy amongst students. Creating original versions of popular models, like linear regr…
We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolu…
We consider the problem of sequential sampling from a finite number of independent statistical populations to maximize the expected infinite horizon average outcome per period, under a constraint that the expected average sampling cost does not exceed an upper bound. The outcome distributions are not known. We construc…
We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant depend…
We propose an efficient protocol for decentralized training of deep neural networks from distributed data sources. The proposed protocol allows to handle different phases of model training equally well and to quickly adapt to concept drifts. This leads to a reduction of communication by an order of magnitude compared t…
We study the average price impact of a single trade executed in the NYSE. After appropriate averaging and rescaling, the data for the 1000 most highly capitalized stocks collapse onto a single function, giving average price shift as a function of trade size. This function increases as a power that is the order of 1/2 f…
On-line portfolio selection has attracted increasing interests in machine learning and AI communities recently. Empirical evidences show that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock price relatives are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While the existing mean reversion strategies are shown to …
We present a detailed study of the performance of a trading rule that uses moving average of past returns to predict future returns on stock indexes. Our main goal is to link performance and the stochastic process of the traded asset. Our study reports short, medium and long term effects by looking at the Sharpe ratio …
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of 7,796 worldwide companies for the period 2004 through 2013. We develop a panel reg…
We propose a novel methodology to define, analyze and forecast market states. In our approach market states are identified by a reference sparse precision matrix and a vector of expectation values. In our procedure, each multivariate observation is associated with a given market state accordingly to a minimization of a…
This study analyzes cryptocurrency market crashes using complex network analysis.
For technology (like serious games) that aims to deliver interactive learning, it is important to address relevant mental experiences such as reflective thinking during problem solving. To facilitate research in this direction, we present the weDraw-1 Movement Dataset of body movement sensor data and reflective thinkin…
The study proves that in normal tilings, at least two vertices are required per cell.
New framework finds periodic policies in reset-free MDPs with sublinear regret.
The aim of this paper is to compare statistical properties of stock price indices in periods of booms with those in periods of stagnations. We use the daily data of the four stock price indices in the major stock markets in the world: (i) the Nikkei 225 index (Nikkei 225) from January 4, 1975 to August 18, 2004, of (ii…
We have analyzed the statistical probabilities of limit-order book (LOB) shape through building the book using the ultra-high-frequency data from 23 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We find that the averaged LOB shape has a maximum away from the same best price for both buy and sell LOBs. Th…
We build a multiassets heterogeneous agents model with fundamentalists and chartists, who make investment decisions by maximizing the constant relative risk aversion utility function. We verify that the model can reproduce the main stylized facts in real markets, such as fat-tailed return distribution and long-term mem…
Attempts to accurately measure the monetary velocity or related properties of bitcoin used in transactions have often attempted to either directly apply definitions from traditional macroeconomic theory or to use specialized metrics relative to the properties of the Blockchain like bitcoin days destroyed. In this paper…
LASSO-PCA combines LASSO and PCA for automated forecast averaging.