Diversified risk parity strategies outperform equally-weighted portfolios in various asset universes.
problem Finding optimal portfolio allocations that balance risk and reward.
method Integrates various reward-risk measures and generic allocation rules into diversified risk parity.
result Diversified reward-risk parity strategies exhibit higher average returns, Sharpe ratios, and Calmar ratios compared to equally-weighted risk portfolios.
This paper optimizes performative risk by focusing on convex properties and developing efficient algorithms.
problem Performative risk, the loss experienced by decision makers, is not optimized by stable models.
method Identifying convex properties of loss function and model-induced distribution shift, developing algorithms for optimization.
result Optimization of performative risk with better sample efficiency than generic methods.
Method to decompose portfolio performance into FX, interest rate, carry, and residual market risks.
problem Understanding the sources of portfolio performance.
method Decomposition of portfolio PnL into four components.
result Demonstrated usefulness of the method through fund performance analysis.
New framework calibrates models to control risk under performativity.
problem Calibrating models to ensure reliable decision-making under performativity.
method Iteratively refined calibration process for different risk measures and tail bounds.
result Statistically rigorous risk control under performativity demonstrated.
Paper analyzes cyber risk classifications for forecasting performance.
problem Lack of effective out-of-sample forecasting performance in current cyber risk classifications.
method Rolling window analysis using threshold weighted scoring functions.
result Dynamic and impact-based cyber risk classifiers outperform others in forecasting future cyber risk losses.
New risk theory for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
problem How to price and hedge operational and financial risks in new business models.
method Developed a new risk theory and calculation method for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
result Presented a model for determining risk premiums including both financial and operational risks.
MVPI framework optimizes risk in reinforcement learning, improving performance in robot simulations.
problem Optimizing risk in reinforcement learning control problems.
method Mean-Variance Policy Iteration (MVPI) framework for risk-averse control in MDPs.
result Risk-averse TD3 outperforms previous methods in robot simulation tasks.
We implement momentum strategies using reward-risk measures as ranking criteria based on classical tempered stable distribution. Performances and risk characteristics for the alternative portfolios are obtained in various asset classes and markets. The reward-risk momentum strategies with lower volatility levels outper…
New algorithms minimize risk in MNL bandits, achieving near-optimal performance.
problem Minimizing risk in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Designing algorithms for various risk criteria (e.g., CVaR, Sharpe ratio, entropy risk).
result Near-optimal regret for the designed algorithms.
New algorithms optimize spectral risk measures, improving interpolation between average and worst-case performance.
problem Optimizing spectral risk measures for learning systems.
method Developed stochastic algorithms to optimize spectral risk measures by characterizing their subdifferential and addressing challenges like biasedness of subgradient estimates and non-smoothness.
result Our approach outperforms out-of-the-box stochastic subgradient and dual averaging methods in optimizing spectral risk measures.
The paper tackles performative risk optimization under weak convexity assumptions.
problem Optimizing performative risk in a closed-loop prediction system with weak convexity.
method Relaxing convexity assumptions to maintain optimization feasibility.
result Iterative optimization methods remain applicable even with weakened convexity conditions.
The paper develops diverse risk models for US stock portfolios.
problem Maximizing profits while minimizing risk in stock markets.
method Various high-dimensional risk models and investment strategies tested.
result Out-of-sample tests show improved portfolio performance.
Improves Bayesian predictive performance in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification gap between inferential and predictive risks.
method Develops a multi-sample loss (PACm) to bridge the gap. result Empirical study shows improved predictive distribution.
This study uses NLP to detect financial risks from documents.
problem Detecting and predicting financial risks in documents.
method NLP model design, text preprocessing, feature extraction, machine learning.
result NLP model effectively identifies and predicts financial risks.
New method tests risk measures for various distortions.
problem Testing risk measures for different distortions.
method Stratification and randomization of risk levels.
result Method performs well in numerical case studies.
Improved portfolio optimization reduces sensitivity to neural network initialization.
problem High sensitivity to neural network initialization in portfolio optimization.
method Robust end-to-end framework for risk budgeting portfolios.
result Enhanced stability in portfolio optimization without compromising performance.
New method improves model risk prediction using cross-audit projection.
problem Over-optimism in K-fold CV for binary classification. method Cross-audit projection (CAP) procedure combining resampling and asymptotic bias correction.
result CAP estimator achieves second-order asymptotic unbiasedness.
Paper analyzes transfer risk in transfer learning for finance.
problem Evaluate transferability of transfer learning in finance.
method Proposes transfer risk concept and applies to stock return prediction and portfolio optimization.
result Transfer risk correlates with transfer learning performance and identifies appropriate source tasks.
This paper optimizes decarbonized indices for financial tracking, balancing risk and environmental impact.
problem Balancing financial performance with environmental responsibilities in the context of climate risks.
method Develops decarbonized indices using mean-VaR and mean-ES optimization methods.
result Optimized indices reduce financial risk and carbon footprint, providing a balanced investment option.
We study risk-sensitive imitation learning where the agent's goal is to perform at least as well as the expert in terms of a risk profile. We first formulate our risk-sensitive imitation learning setting. We consider the generative adversarial approach to imitation learning (GAIL) and derive an optimization problem for…
Risk control improves EENNs to make faster predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Determining safe times for EENNs to exit early without degrading performance.
method Adapting risk control frameworks to EENNs to tune their exiting mechanism.
result Risk control enables EENNs to make faster predictions while maintaining user-specified performance goals.
Paper proposes CVaR-TS for risk-constrained MAB problems.
problem Risk in decision-making complicates reward maximization in MAB problems.
method Risk measure CVaR is used, and Thompson Sampling is adapted for CVaR.
result CVaR-TS outperforms other L/UCB-based algorithms in risk-constrained MAB settings.
The paper explores how machine learning models can be learnable despite label shifts.
problem Learnability of binary classification models in the presence of label shifts.
method Developed a performative empirical risk function that is an unbiased estimate of the true risk on the shifted distribution.
result PAC-learnable hypothesis spaces remain PAC-learnable for performative scenarios.
The paper analyzes the performance of empirical risk minimization for p-norm linear regression.
problem Empirical risk minimization on p-norm linear regression. method Analyzes performance under various conditions and moment assumptions.
result High probability excess risk bounds for empirical risk minimizer, matching asymptotic rates.
Paper presents a dynamic tail risk protection strategy using ML and econometrics.
problem Tail risk protection in finance with solid mathematical and statistical tools.
method Dynamic tail risk protection strategy using weak classifiers (parametric and non-parametric) to estimate exceedance probability and derive trading signals.
result Ensemble classifier improves generalization and trading performance.
Capital allocation principles are used in various contexts in which a risk capital or a cost of an aggregate position has to be allocated among its constituent parts. We study capital allocation principles in a performance measurement framework. We introduce the notation of suitability of allocations for performance me…
New method improves compatibility of risk stratification models without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Compatibility issues arise when updating clinical machine learning models.
method Proposes rank-based compatibility measure and new loss function.
result Increased compatibility of models by 0.019 with no loss in discriminative performance.
Online learning has traditionally focused on the expected rewards. In this paper, a risk-averse online learning problem under the performance measure of the mean-variance of the rewards is studied. Both the bandit and full information settings are considered. The performance of several existing policies is analyzed, an…
Teaching tool simplifies Monte Carlo simulation for project risk analysis.
problem Difficulty in students performing Monte Carlo Simulation in risk analysis.
method Introducing MCSimulRisk as a teaching tool.
result Students can perform Monte Carlo simulation and apply it to projects of any complexity.
Bayesian optimization reduces CVaR portfolio risk.
problem Minimizing CVaR under minimum expected return constraints.
method New Bayesian Optimization algorithms with a two-stage procedure.
result Significant reduction in objective function evaluations.
Modeling risk and performance with Levy-stable distributions.
problem Understanding risk and performance in financial markets with non-Gaussian distributions.
method Developed a finite-horizon model using Levy-stable scaling, identified parameters from data, derived formulas for various financial ratios.
result Horizon-correct formulas for risk measures are derived and validated across different horizons.
A new explainable CBR system predicts financial risks with interpretability and good performance.
problem Predicting financial risks with interpretability and good performance.
method A novel explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) approach.
result The CBR system provides a good prediction performance and interpretability.
We give an explicit algorithm and source code for constructing risk models based on machine learning techniques. The resultant covariance matrices are not factor models. Based on empirical backtests, we compare the performance of these machine learning risk models to other constructions, including statistical risk mode…
Active learning from demonstration allows a robot to query a human for specific types of input to achieve efficient learning. Existing work has explored a variety of active query strategies; however, to our knowledge, none of these strategies directly minimize the performance risk of the policy the robot is learning. U…
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
problem Optimizing classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
method Three distinct models: response, risk, and response-risk. Optimized various performance metrics.
result Random Forest classifier achieves highest accuracy (83.2%) in multi-class response-risk model.
Study uses RL to hedge financial derivatives, showing robust strategies outperform non-robust ones.
problem Risk mitigation and gain-seeking in hedging path-dependent financial derivatives.
method Robust risk-aware reinforcement learning (RL) with policy gradient approach.
result Robust hedging strategies outperform non-robust ones under varying data generating processes.
Investigates how options can control systemic risk in portfolios.
problem Systemic risk in optioned portfolios.
method Correlation hedging, extreme loss hedging, and SOCP formulation.
result Options can make systemic risk controllable and enhance return-risk performance.
Study dynamic risk measures and performance indices using distortion functions.
problem Investigate time consistency of dynamic risk measures and performance indices generated by distortion functions.
method Analyze dynamic coherent risk measures (DCRMs) and dynamic weighted value at risk measures, proving their equivalence. Establish properties of families of DCRMs generated by distortion functions and define corresponding dynamic coherent acceptability indices (DCAIs). Examine time consistency of DCRMs and DCAIs.
result DCRM generated by distortion functions are sub-martingale time consistent but not super-martingale time consistent and not weakly acceptance time consistent.
Develops risk-averse fair multi-class classification methods.
problem Noisy, scarce, unreliable data in multi-class classification problems.
method Systemic risk models and risk-averse regularized decomposition method.
result Enforces fairness and improves performance with unreliable data.
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of functionals for evaluating financial positions.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
This study improves child welfare risk models using clustering methods.
problem Improving predictive risk models for child maltreatment.
method Integration of PCA and K-Means clustering.
result No significant difference in model performance across clusters, but better for younger children.
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of performance evaluation methods.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
Study examines market risks on pension system sustainability.
problem Impact of market risks on pension corpus sustainability.
method Monte Carlo simulations with historical data.
result Market risks significantly impact pension corpus sustainability.
Paper uses DRL to optimize portfolios, balancing risk and return.
problem Optimizing portfolios under market uncertainty and risk constraints.
method Integrates Sharpe ratio-based reward with risk control mechanisms, uses PPO for adaptive asset allocation.
result DRL agent stabilizes volatility but sacrifices risk-adjusted returns.
New model optimizes portfolios over multiple periods using predictive control.
problem Optimizing multi-period portfolios with risk and variance objectives.
method Model Predictive Control with Mean-Variance and Risk Parity.
result 30x faster and more robust solutions compared to single period models.
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
problem Predicting CLABSI risk in hospital admissions using EHR data with competing risks.
method Comparison of static and dynamic random forest models for binary, multinomial, survival, and competing risks outcomes.
result Static and dynamic random forest models perform similarly in predicting CLABSI risk, with multinomial models having the lowest computation times.
Investigates MAD-RP portfolios for asset allocation.
problem Finding optimal asset allocation strategies.
method Uses MAD as risk measure and proposes computational formulations for MAD-RP portfolios.
result MAD-RP portfolios offer balanced risk and profitability.
MRCpy implements minimax risk classifiers with performance guarantees and distribution shift adaptability.
problem Classical risk minimization approaches are not robust to distribution shifts.
method Robust risk minimization approach for minimax risk classifiers.
result MRCs provide performance guarantees and adapt to distribution shifts.