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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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245490734979 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for performative drift

Enhash detects concept drift in data streams quickly and efficiently.

problem Detecting abrupt, gradual, virtual, or recurring events in data streams.
method Uses projection hash to insert incoming samples and detects concept drift.
result Enhash has competitive performance and moderate resource requirements compared to existing ensemble learners.

Detects drifts in data for classification tasks using constrained embeddings.

problem Drifts in data affect model performance; unsupervised methods ignore label information.
method Task-sensitive semi-supervised drift detection with constrained low-dimensional embedding.
result Successfully detects real drifts affecting classification performance.

Gradient-based methods for games suffer from discrete update steps that cause drift, affecting performance.

problem Gradient-based methods for two-player games suffer from drift due to discrete update steps.
method Derived modified continuous dynamical systems to closely follow the discrete dynamics of games.
result Identified distinct components of discretization drift that can alter or destabilize game performance.

Adversarial validation detects concept drift in user targeting systems.

problem Concept drift in user targeting automation systems deteriorates model performance over time.
method Adversarial validation approach to detect and adapt to concept drift.
result Adversarial validation effectively addresses concept drift in user targeting systems.

PDD detects concept drift using explainable AI, improving model performance in dynamic environments.

problem Detecting and adapting to concept drift in predictive models.
method Profile Drift Detection (PDD) using Partial Dependence Profiles (PDPs).
result PDD outperforms existing methods in detecting concept drift and maintaining high predictive performance.

Detects data drift and outliers affecting ML model performance over time.

problem Detecting distribution changes between training and deployment datasets for machine learning models.
method Nonparametrically tests model prediction confidence distributions for changes using Change Point Models (CPMs). Also uses nonparametric outlier methods.
result Demonstrates robustness of the method under various levels of drift class contamination.

Framework monitors insurance pricing models for drift and recalibration.

problem Maintaining predictive performance of pricing models in evolving insurance portfolios.
method Formalizes deviance loss and Murphy's score, studies Gini score, develops monitoring framework.
result Framework guides decisions on refitting or recalibrating pricing models.

This review covers learning under concept drift, including detection, understanding, and adaptation.

problem Unforeseeable changes in data distribution over time impact machine learning performance.
method Reviews and analyzes methodologies and techniques for concept drift detection, understanding, and adaptation.
result Establishes a framework for learning under concept drift with three main components.

New budget quantifies drift in closed-loop learning, improving reproducibility.

problem Characterizing statistical learning under distributional drift in closed-loop settings.
method Introduces an intrinsic drift budget CTC_T quantifying cumulative information-geometric motion of the data distribution.
result Proves a drift-feedback bound of order T1/2+CT/TT^{-1/2}+C_T/T for prequential reproducibility, up to controlled second-order remainder terms.

Concept drift is formally defined as the change in joint distribution of a set of input variables X and a target variable y. The two types of drift that are extensively studied are real drift and virtual drift where the former is the change in posterior probabilities p(y|X) while the latter is the change in distributio…

2019-09-25abs ↗pdf ↗

With today's abundant streams of data, the only constant we can rely on is change. For stream classification algorithms, it is necessary to adapt to concept drift. This can be achieved by monitoring the model error, and triggering counter measures as changes occur. In this paper, we propose a drift detection mechanism …

2018-11-27abs ↗pdf ↗

CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.

problem Detecting changes in data distribution (concept drift) in data streams.
method CURIE represents data stream distribution in a cellular automata grid and uses its neighborhood rule to detect changes.
result CURIE, when hybridized with base learners, performs competitively in detection metrics and classification accuracy.

In data stream mining, predictive models typically suffer drops in predictive performance due to concept drift. As enough data representing the new concept must be collected for the new concept to be well learnt, the predictive performance of existing models usually takes some time to recover from concept drift. To spe…

2019-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Automatic Machine Learning (Auto-ML) has attracted more and more attention in recent years, our work is to solve the problem of data drift, which means that the distribution of data will gradually change with the acquisition process, resulting in a worse performance of the auto-ML model. We construct our model based on…

2019-08-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Proceed adapts models proactively against concept drift in online time series forecasting.

problem Concept drift causes forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts, reducing performance.
method Proceed estimates and translates concept drift into parameter adjustments, enhancing model resilience.
result Proceed brings more performance improvements than state-of-the-art online learning methods.

Paper presents adaptive minimax risk classifiers for multidimensional concept drift.

problem Multidimensional concept drift in supervised classification.
method Adaptive minimax risk classifiers (AMRCs) tracking multivariate and high-order distribution changes.
result AMRCs provide computable tight performance guarantees and improve classification.

Paper proposes a framework to detect adversarial concept drifts under poisoning attacks.

problem Adversarial concept drift in data streams.
method Augmented Restricted Boltzmann Machine with improved gradient computation and energy function.
result High robustness and efficacy of the proposed drift detection framework in adversarial scenarios.

The paper develops a neural network-based classifier for diffusion process drifts.

problem Classifying diffusion processes with distinct drift functions from discrete observations.
method Derives a Bayes rule and constructs a plug-in classifier using neural networks to estimate drifts.
result Establishes convergence rates for misclassification risk, highlighting benefits of diffusion structure.

Paper tackles concept drift in Federated Learning, improving model performance.

problem Concept drift in real-world data makes existing Federated Learning methods ineffective.
method Introduces a multiscale algorithm combining extit{FedAvg} and extit{FedOMD} with non-stationary detection and adaptation.
result Achieves dynamic regret of $\Tilde{\mathcal{O}} ( \min \{ \sqrt{LT} , Δ^{\frac{1}{3}}T^{\frac{2}{3}} + \sqrt{T} \})$ for TT rounds.

Machine learning monitors detect motor overheating, adapting to concept drift.

problem Early detection of motor overheating in ships' propulsion systems.
method Machine learning and statistical methods using historical data to adapt to concept drift.
result The proposed monitors provide early detection of overheating during and after concept drifts.

Common statistical prediction models often require and assume stationarity in the data. However, in many practical applications, changes in the relationship of the response and predictor variables are regularly observed over time, resulting in the deterioration of the predictive performance of these models. This paper …

2015-04-04abs ↗pdf ↗

KT models struggle with student concept drift, but BKT remains the most stable.

problem Impact of student concept drift on KT models.
method Applied four KT models to five academic years of data.
result KT models generally degrade in performance with concept drift, BKT remains stable.

Study improves survival analysis for credit risk by accounting for data drift.

problem Survival analysis in credit risk assumes a stationary data-generating process, but real-world data drift affects model performance.
method Proposes a dynamic joint modelling framework integrating longitudinal behavioural markers and hazard formulations, combined with drift-adaptive techniques.
result Proposed model outperforms classical survival models and drift-adaptive learners in various data drift scenarios.

Machine learning models fail due to concept and data drift during pandemic.

problem Machine learning models trained before the pandemic are unreliable during the pandemic.
method Detect and diagnose concept and data drift in models.
result Model resilience and robustness are crucial for future predictions.

Optimizes quickest detection of drift in Brownian motion with false negatives.

problem Quickest detection of drift in Brownian motion with false negatives.
method Formulated as an optimal multiple stopping problem, then equivalent to a recursive optimal stopping problem, solved using free boundary methods.
result Explicit formulae for expected cost and optimal strategy found.

Bayesian non-parametric model adapts to concept drifts in streaming data.

problem Inference under concept drift phenomenon for non-stationary data streams.
method Variational inference algorithm for Dirichlet process mixture models with exponential forgetting.
result The proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in clustering problems.

DDG-DA predicts future data distribution to adapt models for predictable concept drift.

problem Adapting models to streaming data with predictable concept drift.
method Train a predictor to forecast future data distribution, generate training samples, and train models on them.
result Significant improvement on multiple models in real-world tasks.

Study online conformal prediction for non-stationary data with optimal training-conditional regret.

problem Online prediction for non-stationary data streams with unknown distribution drift.
method Proposes split-conformal and full-conformal algorithms that adapt to drift detection and incorporate stability for online learning.
result Proves minimax-optimal regret for online full conformal algorithm under appropriate restrictions.

SHIFT framework identifies subgroups with large ML model performance decay.

problem Large model performance decay in subgroups when deployed.
method Subgroup-scanning Hierarchical Inference Framework (SHIFT) for performance drift.
result SHIFT identifies interpretable subgroups with large performance decay and suggests targeted actions to mitigate it.

MLDemon monitors ML systems post-deployment, improving reliability with real-time performance estimates and expert labels.

problem Ensuring reliability of machine learning systems post-deployment, especially when user inputs differ from training data.
method Integrates unlabeled and on-demand labeled data to monitor ML model performance in real-time, deciding when to acquire expert labels.
result Outperforms existing approaches in temporal datasets with diverse distribution drifts, providing theoretical optimality for distribution drifts.

In many real-world applications, data are often collected in the form of stream, and thus the distribution usually changes in nature, which is referred as concept drift in literature. We propose a novel and effective approach to handle concept drift via model reuse, leveraging previous knowledge by reusing models. Each…

2018-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗