Develops a new class of forward performance processes for investment pools.
problem Investment performance in market models with continuous semimartingale stock prices.
method Constructs a broad class of forward performance processes with power mixture initial conditions.
result Characterizes and derives properties of two-power mixture forward performance processes.
Improved Gaussian process experts model for complex data.
problem Limitations of standard Gaussian processes: scalability and predictive performance.
method Proposes a new mixture model of Gaussian process experts based on kernel stick-breaking processes.
result Improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
An adversarial process between two deep neural networks is a promising approach to train a robust model. In this paper, we propose an adversarial process using cosine similarity, whereas conventional adversarial processes are based on inverted categorical cross entropy (CCE). When used for training an identification mo…
New MTPP model offers interpretable predictions with state-of-the-art performance.
problem Inexpressive models lack interpretability, while neural models sacrifice interpretability for performance.
method Extends Hawkes process to a hypernetwork with a latent space, making it flexible and interpretable.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance across various tasks and metrics.
GRM uses graph neural networks to score process activity relevance.
problem Improving business processes with performance measures.
method Graph Relevance Miner (GRM) based on graph neural networks.
result Quantitatively evaluated relevance scores with four datasets.
RCNPs extend equivariant neural processes to higher dimensions, improving performance on tasks with inherent symmetries.
problem Inherently equivariant tasks in spatio-temporal modeling, Bayesian Optimization, and continuous control.
method Relational Conditional Neural Processes (RCNPs) that extend equivariances to higher dimensions.
result Empirically competitive performance on tasks with equivariances.
GP-ConvCNP improves NP models for time series data by adding Gaussian Process.
problem GP-ConvCNP addresses the lack of generalization and robustness in ConvCNP models for time series data.
method GP-ConvCNP incorporates a Gaussian Process to improve ConvCNP's performance and generalization.
result GP-ConvCNP models show improved generalization and robustness to distribution shifts and future extrapolation.
GP-BART improves BART's predictive performance by incorporating Gaussian process priors.
problem Lack of smoothness and explicit covariance structure in BART.
method GP-BART extends BART with Gaussian process priors for tree predictions.
result GP-BART outperforms traditional models in various applications.
Paper optimizes industrial refrigeration using adaptive exploration.
problem Challenges in optimizing real-time industrial processes with unknown characteristics and safety constraints.
method Adaptive and explorative real-time optimization framework with Gaussian process uncertainty quantification.
result Approach increases energy efficiency of refrigeration process, approximating complete information solutions.
CQNPs enhance predictive performance and distribution modeling using quantile regression.
problem Limited predictive likelihood of Gaussian models for complex distributions.
method Introducing Conditional Quantile Neural Processes (CQNPs) that focus on estimating informative quantiles.
result Significant improvements in predictive performance and better modeling of multimodal distributions.
Accelerates GPR with localized kernels for faster performance.
problem Speeding up Gaussian process regression.
method Localization kernels applied at each data point to down-weight distant points, leading to a sparsified Gram matrix.
result Significant speedups with competitive performance compared to other methods.
Indices of acceptability are well suited to frame the axiomatic features of many performance measures, associated to terminal random cash flows.We extend this notion to classes of càdlàg processes modelling cash flows over a fixed investment horizon.We provide a representation result for bounded paths. We suggest an ac…
Gaussian processes are a flexible Bayesian nonparametric modelling approach that has been widely applied but poses computational challenges. To address the poor scaling of exact inference methods, approximation methods based on sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) are attractive. An issue faced by SGP, especially in latent …
In an incomplete market, with incompleteness stemming from stochastic factors imperfectly correlated with the underlying stocks, we derive representations of homothetic (power, exponential and logarithmic) forward performance processes in factor-form using ergodic BSDE. We also develop a connection between the forward …
Proposes GPHMEs using Gaussian processes for hierarchical expert models.
problem Hierarchical mixtures of experts with complex gating functions.
method Gaussian process-gated hierarchical mixtures of experts (GPHMEs) with non-linear gating and expert functions.
result Outperforms tree-based HMEs and achieves good performance with reduced complexity.
Inter-domain Deep Gaussian Processes improve inference for non-stationary data.
problem Inference limitations in Gaussian processes for non-stationary data.
method Combines inter-domain and deep Gaussian processes for scalable approximate inference.
result Outperforms inter-domain shallow GPs and conventional DGPs on non-stationary data.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper proves concentration inequalities for two-sample rank processes and applies them to ranking performance criteria.
problem Measuring the performance of ranking statistics between two populations.
method Proves concentration inequalities for two-sample rank processes indexed by VC classes of scoring functions.
result Generalization capacity of empirical maximizers of ranking performance criteria is investigated.
Kernel methods on discrete domains have shown great promise for many challenging data types, for instance, biological sequence data and molecular structure data. Scalable kernel methods like Support Vector Machines may offer good predictive performances but do not intrinsically provide uncertainty estimates. In contras…
Neural marked point processes show saturation with complexity, leading to new simple architectures.
problem Performance saturation in neural marked point processes with complex architectures.
method Proposed GCHP with graph convolutional layers and likelihood ratio loss.
result GCHP reduces training time and improves model performance.
Deep learning improves Hurst parameter estimation for fractional processes.
problem Estimating the Hurst parameter in fractional stochastic processes.
method Training Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks on extensive datasets of fBm, fOU, and lfsm processes.
result LSTM outperforms traditional methods in fBm and fOU processes but has limited accuracy on lfsm.
New algorithm reduces bias in trained models, near-optimal performance proven.
problem Reduction of bias in trained machine learning models.
method Scalable post-processing algorithm for debiasing trained models, including deep neural networks (DNNs).
result Proven to be near-optimal by bounding its excess Bayes risk.
The problem of estimating the number of sources and their angles of arrival from a single antenna array observation has been an active area of research in the signal processing community for the last few decades. When the number of sources is large, the maximum likelihood estimator is intractable due to its very high c…
New online GP algorithm offers performance guarantees for streaming data.
problem Training and inference of GPs require all historic data, limiting online decision-making.
method Developed a new theoretical framework based on PAC-Bayes theory, optimizing empirical risk and parameter divergence.
result Offers both a guarantee of generalized performance and good accuracy.
The Kalman filter and Heston model are used to estimate asset prices and trading performance.
problem Estimating asset prices using stochastic models.
method Kalman filter applied to mean-reverting processes and Heston model with method of moments.
result The Kalman filter and Heston model provide effective methods for estimating asset prices and trading performance.
Stochastic models analyze traffic network performance.
problem Evaluate traffic system performance.
method Stochastic cell transmission models, preference functionals, Gaussian process regression.
result Illustrated in two case studies.
Linear autoregressive models serve as basic representations of discrete time stochastic processes. Different attempts have been made to provide non-linear versions of the basic autoregressive process, including different versions based on kernel methods. Motivated by the powerful framework of Hilbert space embeddings o…
Bayesian model improves classification performance with flexible uncertainty modeling.
problem Improving classification performance with flexible uncertainty modeling.
method Combines Gaussian process and Dirichlet process priors for latent function and link function, respectively.
result Outperforms standard logistic regression on simulated data.
Gaussian process priors are commonly used in aerospace design for performing Bayesian optimization. Nonetheless, Gaussian processes suffer two significant drawbacks: outliers are a priori assumed unlikely, and the posterior variance conditioned on observed data depends only on the locations of those data, not the assoc…
Paper simplifies default process modeling and credit valuation.
problem Modeling and pricing derivative securities with credit risk.
method Integrates default process, probability, and correlation into a unified framework.
result Risky valuation is Martingale in the proposed model.
ML predicts alloy properties considering chemistry, processing, and data transformations.
problem Designing and predicting alloy properties in high-dimensional design space.
method Physics-informed machine learning with engineered features from chemistry and heat treatment.
result ML models accurately predict alloy properties, including hysteresis in shape memory alloys.
Automatically adjusts model size for continual Gaussian processes.
problem Determining optimal model size for incremental data.
method Automatic adjustment of model size during continual learning.
result Near-optimal performance across various datasets without hyperparameter tuning.
New metrics using Laplace approximation improve Gaussian process model selection.
problem Finding a balance between model accuracy, interpretability, and simplicity.
method Introducing multiple metrics based on the Laplace approximation to evaluate Gaussian process models.
result Our metrics provide comparable performance to dynamic nested sampling but are significantly faster.
Deep Gaussian processes on manifolds improve performance on complex data.
problem Complex data on manifolds that shallow models struggle with.
method Residual deep Gaussian processes on Riemannian manifolds.
result Significant improvement in prediction quality and uncertainty calibration.
This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding literature. The method can be performed in O(nlog2n) operations, where…
The paper solves investment problems with uncertain factors using game theory.
problem Optimal forward investment in an incomplete market with model uncertainty.
method Combining stochastic differential games and ergodic BSDE approach.
result Representation of robust forward performance processes in factor form.
We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian processes. The proposed method can also achieve high generalization performance fo…
Several machine learning problems arising in natural language processing can be modeled as a sequence labeling problem. We provide Gaussian process models based on pseudo-likelihood approximation to perform sequence labeling. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a Bayesian approach to learning in a kernel based framework. …
We propose a method for inferring the conditional independence graph (CIG) of a high-dimensional Gaussian vector time series (discrete-time process) from a finite-length observation. By contrast to existing approaches, we do not rely on a parametric process model (such as, e.g., an autoregressive model) for the observe…
Improved variational approximation for deep Wishart process models.
problem Improving predictive performance of deep Wishart process models.
method Generalizing the Bartlett decomposition of the Wishart distribution to allow linear combinations of rows and columns.
result Better predictive performance achieved with minimal additional computation cost.
This paper speeds up Gaussian process regression for autocorrelated data.
problem Temporal overfitting in Gaussian process models for autocorrelated data.
method Modifying existing Gaussian process approximations to handle blocked, de-correlated data.
result Proposed methods accelerate Gaussian process regression on autocorrelated data without sacrificing performance.
New method improves stability of Gaussian process approximations.
problem Numerical instability in Gaussian process computations.
method Cover tree modification for inducing points, alternative sparse approximation.
result Improved stability and predictive performance in spatial tasks.
Proposes using entity embedding vectors to improve Gaussian Process models for knowledge transfer across cell lines.
problem Lack of reuse of experimental data for predicting novel processes.
method Hybrid Gaussian Process models with entity embedding vectors to represent product identity.
result Improved performance in predicting novel processes compared to traditional methods.
A new approach for signal parametrization, which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process, is proposed. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a dedicated Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The parameters of the hidden logis…
Paper introduces robust Gaussian process regression without sacrificing computational efficiency.
problem Violation of independent and identically distributed Gaussian observation noise assumption in Gaussian process regression.
method Proves robust and conjugate Gaussian process regression (RCGP) at no additional cost using generalised Bayesian inference.
result RCGP enables exact conjugate closed form updates in all settings where standard GPs admit them.
Quantum computing improves fault diagnosis in industrial processes.
problem Fault detection and diagnosis in industrial process systems.
method Integrates quantum computing and deep learning to extract features and diagnose faults.
result Quantum-assisted deep learning achieves high fault detection rates (79.2% and 99.39%).
Single linear solve combines surface reconstruction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Reconstructing surfaces from partial point clouds with uncertainty.
method Geometric Gaussian processes for stochastic surface reconstruction.
result Single linear solve for surface reconstruction with probabilistic capabilities.
In this paper we cast the well-known convolutional neural network in a Gaussian process perspective. In this way we hope to gain additional insights into the performance of convolutional networks, in particular understand under what circumstances they tend to perform well and what assumptions are implicitly made in the…