Optimal text-based indices track VIX and inflation.
problem Maximizing contemporaneous relation or predictive performance with target variables.
method Optimizing text-based indices focusing on VIX and inflation expectations.
result Superior performance compared to existing indices.
The study analyzes performance indices for class-imbalanced data and identifies conditions they must meet.
problem Distortions in performance indices under class imbalance.
method Identified two conditions for performance indices and analyzed four binary and five multi-class indices.
result Recommended appropriate indices for evaluating classifiers in class-imbalanced scenarios.
Gradient boosting predicts promotion efficiency using multiple performance indicators.
problem Forecasting promotion efficiency in FMCG retail.
method Gradient boosting applied to six performance indicators for different product groups.
result Models accurately forecast promotion efficiency, optimizing marketing strategies.
Improved MACD trading strategies with other indicators for better performance.
problem Evaluating the effectiveness of MACD-based trading strategies in the US stock market.
method Backtested various MACD-based trading strategies on US stock indices using Python.
result Win-rate of MACD strategies improved with other momentum indicators, leading to a new VPVMA indicator.
Imputation with missing-indicators improves machine learning performance, especially for categorical attributes.
problem Missing values in datasets can be lost through imputation, potentially reducing model performance.
method Combines missing-indicator approach with imputation strategies on real datasets.
result Missing-indicators generally increase classification performance, especially for categorical attributes.
MIM adds indicator variables to improve model performance on incomplete data.
problem Missing data in incomplete data sets.
method Missing Indicator Method (MIM) and Selective MIM (SMIM).
result MIM improves model performance for informative missing values and high-dimensional data.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
problem Improving systematic trend-following in commodity futures markets.
method Combines univariate and cross-sectional trend indicators, including network momentum.
result Statistically significant improvements in portfolio performance metrics.
This paper reviews and proposes a new approach for evaluating internal cluster validation indices.
problem Selecting the best-performing unsupervised classification algorithm without external information.
method Examines and proposes a new evaluation approach for internal validation indices.
result Suggests a new evaluation approach for internal validation indices.
Study finds traditional technical indicators underperform in high-frequency trading, suggesting risk management over prediction.
problem Inadequately explored effectiveness of technical indicators in high-frequency trading, particularly at minute-level frequency.
method Evaluation of random forest models with traditional technical indicators on minute-level SPY data.
result In-sample performance is superior to out-of-sample, with risk-adjusted metrics not outperforming a simple buy-and-hold strategy.
Study shows diverse data sources improve cryptocurrency forecasting models.
problem Improving cryptocurrency market forecasting accuracy.
method Integrating various data types, including on-chain metrics, traditional indices, and macroeconomic indicators.
result Data source diversity significantly enhances forecasting model performance.
The objective of this paper is to fill a gap in the literature on internationalization, in relation to the absence of objective and measurable performance indicators on the process of how firms sequentially enter external markets. To that end, this research develops a quantitative tool that can be used as a performance…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We derive a representation theorem for dynamic coherent risk measures in terms of …
For long time the measurement of innovation has been in the forefront of policy makers' and researchers' agenda worldwide. Therefore, there is an ongoing debate about which indicators should be used to measure innovation. Recent approaches have favoured the use of composite innovation indicators. However, there is no c…
This research examines how model explanations change under distribution shifts in tabular data.
problem Detecting distribution shifts in tabular data affecting model performance and explanations.
method Investigates the relationship between model performance and explanation characteristics under distribution shifts.
result Explanation shifts are a better indicator for detecting predictive performance changes than traditional distribution shift techniques.
New Monte Carlo method outperforms existing strategy for estimating Sobol' indices.
problem Estimating first-and total-orders Sobol' indices accurately.
method Comparing two Monte Carlo estimators for Sobol' indices.
result New method outperforms current approach in accuracy.
This paper optimizes decarbonized indices for financial tracking, balancing risk and environmental impact.
problem Balancing financial performance with environmental responsibilities in the context of climate risks.
method Develops decarbonized indices using mean-VaR and mean-ES optimization methods.
result Optimized indices reduce financial risk and carbon footprint, providing a balanced investment option.
CNN model predicts financial market movement with better performance.
problem Difficult to predict financial markets due to complex dynamics.
method Proposes a novel one-dimensional CNN model for financial market prediction.
result CNN model achieves more robust and profitable performance than previous approaches.
Study measures impact of data and neural net similarity on transferability in restaurant sales data.
problem Identify indicators for successful transferability of neural nets across different data sets.
method Empirical study on sales data from six restaurants, calculating indicators based on data and neural net similarities.
result Negative correlations between transferability and indicators, allowing better model performance and fewer transfers.
We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dyn…
This study improves stock price prediction for Apple Inc. using feature selection and regression models with technical indicators.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy for Apple Inc. using technical indicators.
method Evaluation of 123 technical indicators and 10 regression models on 13 years of Apple Inc. data.
result Combining feature selection with regression models significantly improves prediction accuracy.
Indices of acceptability are well suited to frame the axiomatic features of many performance measures, associated to terminal random cash flows.We extend this notion to classes of càdlàg processes modelling cash flows over a fixed investment horizon.We provide a representation result for bounded paths. We suggest an ac…
Study improves cryptocurrency price prediction using neural networks and technical indicators.
problem Improving cryptocurrency price prediction accuracy.
method Integrates technical indicators, Transformer neural network, and BiLSTM.
result Demonstrates superior performance in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
Mining financial text documents and understanding the sentiments of individual investors, institutions and markets is an important and challenging problem in the literature. Current approaches to mine sentiments from financial texts largely rely on domain specific dictionaries. However, dictionary based methods often f…
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of performance evaluation methods.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
New indices for determining cluster compactness and separability.
problem Challenges in identifying true clusters in data sets.
method Developed absolute cluster indices to measure compactness and separability.
result Demonstrated improved performance compared to existing indices.
Study fragility in global financial indices using network analysis.
problem Monitor fragility in global financial indices.
method Network-based approach to analyze daily closing prices of global financial indices.
result Network-centric measures reveal fragility in global financial indices.
The paper introduces a new financial market for environmental indices to attract investors.
problem Inherent risks and sustainability concerns in environmental investments.
method Quantitative measures, econometric analysis, dynamic asset pricing tools, and financial options.
result Monetization and construction of country-specific environmental indices as dollar-denominated assets.
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…
NeurWIN learns Whittle indices for restless bandits using deep reinforcement learning.
problem Finding optimal solutions for restless bandits with complex transition kernels.
method NeurWIN uses a neural network to learn Whittle indices, leveraging the Whittle indices' mathematical properties.
result NeurWIN outperforms other RL algorithms in solving three recently studied restless bandit problems.
A new diversification measure DQ derived from risk measures addresses limitations of existing indices.
problem Limitations of existing diversification indices in capturing tail heaviness and common shocks.
method DQs are defined based on a parametric family of risk measures, satisfying six axioms of diversification.
result DQs can properly capture tail heaviness and common shocks, improving portfolio selection.
In this paper, a neural network-based stock price prediction and trading system using technical analysis indicators is presented. The model developed first converts the financial time series data into a series of buy-sell-hold trigger signals using the most commonly preferred technical analysis indicators. Then, a Mult…
This paper concentrates on the time series momentum or contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market. We evaluate the performance of the time series momentum strategy applied to major stock indices in mainland China and explore the relation between the performance of time series momentum strategies and some firm-speci…
GraphCNNpred predicts stock market indices using deep learning.
problem Predicting stock market trends with diverse datasets.
method Graph-based CNN model for feature extraction.
result Improves prediction performance by 4% to 15% in F-measure.
DARTS- improves robustness by factoring out skip connections' advantage.
problem Performance collapse in DARTS architecture search.
method Factor out skip connections' advantage with an auxiliary skip connection.
result Significantly improved robustness across various datasets.
The study visualizes Spanish fish and meat processing companies using financial, environmental, and social ratios.
problem Mapping financial, environmental, and social performance of Spanish processing companies.
method Used compositional data and principal-component analysis biplot for statistical analysis.
result Identified clusters of companies with similar financial, environmental, and social performance.
Imputation for prediction often offers limited benefits, especially with powerful models.
problem The challenge of missing data in predictive models.
method Comparative analysis of imputation methods across various predictive models and datasets.
result Advanced imputation methods often offer limited benefits for powerful predictive models.
Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and ar…
New AI stock indices classify firms' AI engagement using 10-K filings.
problem Opaque AI selection criteria in existing ETFs.
method NLP analysis of 10-K filings to classify AI stocks.
result Companies with higher AI engagement have greater positive returns.
Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.
problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.
A new clustering evaluation index based on density estimation.
problem Improving internal clustering evaluation indices.
method The index is a mixture of Ambiguous and Similarity sub-indices, calculated using density estimation.
result The new index significantly outperforms other internal clustering evaluation indices.
TINs use neural networks to interpret technical indicators for trading.
problem Lack of interpretable neural architectures for technical indicators in trading.
method Introduced TINs, a neural architecture that reformulates technical indicators into trainable modules.
result Improved risk-adjusted performance compared to traditional indicator-based strategies.
We consider the problem of learning models for forecasting multiple time-series systems together with discovering the leading indicators that serve as good predictors for the system. We model the systems by linear vector autoregressive models (VAR) and link the discovery of leading indicators to inferring sparse graphs…
A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.
problem Managing project risks throughout the lifecycle.
method Activity Risk Index (ARI) based on Schedule Risk Baseline.
result Identifies activities contributing most to project uncertainty.
New blockchain metrics improve cryptocurrency trading and prediction.
problem Improving trading and prediction in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
method Developed blockchain metrics based on public data from Bitcoin mining nodes.
result Blockchain metrics provide statistical advantage in trading Bitcoin assets.
Cryptocurrency forecasting model considers macro, sentiment, and technical indicators.
problem High price volatility in cryptocurrency markets.
method Dual-prediction mechanism incorporating macroeconomic fluctuations, technical indicators, and individual cryptocurrency price changes.
result The proposed model outperforms ten comparison methods in short-term cryptocurrency forecasting.
Decision trees improve intraday trading strategies for NIFTY50 stocks.
problem Creating optimal trading rules for individual stocks.
method Using decision trees to generate unique trading rules for each stock based on technical indicators.
result Decision tree strategies outperform simple buy-and-hold for many stocks.
We present an advance bubble detection methodology based on the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator for the early causal identification of positive and negative bubbles in the Chinese stock market using the daily data on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 stock market index from January 2002 thro…
Probabilistic modeling is cyclical: we specify a model, infer its posterior, and evaluate its performance. Evaluation drives the cycle, as we revise our model based on how it performs. This requires a metric. Traditionally, predictive accuracy prevails. Yet, predictive accuracy does not tell the whole story. We propose…