In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large deviations to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem related to the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with investment in stock market. We then describe how large deviation approximation and importance s…
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48 results for “performance deviation”
Classifiers trained with class-imbalanced data are known to perform poorly on test data of the "minor" classes, of which we have insufficient training data. In this paper, we investigate learning a ConvNet classifier under such a scenario. We found that a ConvNet significantly over-fits the minor classes, which is quit…
Study on error probabilities of machine learning classification techniques using large deviations theory.
problem Performance analysis of machine learning binary classification techniques.
method Large deviations theory applied to Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F) for error probability analysis.
result Classification error probabilities vanish exponentially, with an asymptotic formula providing precise error rate estimates.
Paper explores how black box models can deviate from average performance.
problem Understanding and interpreting predictions from sophisticated black box models.
method Two general approaches to provide interpretable descriptions of black box classification model performance.
result Identifies regions where black box models deviate significantly from their average performance.
Paper proposes a new daily benchmark for post-GFC government bond CIP deviations.
problem Lack of a canonical daily benchmark for CIP deviations.
method Used G10 plus KRW currency-tenor panels to analyze three lagged public state variables.
result Three lagged public state variables deliver strong performance in daily regressions.
Paper analyzes and accelerates Langevin Monte Carlo methods using large deviations theory.
problem High-dimensional sampling problems in machine learning.
method Unified approach using large deviations theory to study and accelerate Langevin dynamics variants.
result Efficiency of Langevin dynamics variants demonstrated through numerical experiments.
Simplifies risk minimization combining mean and standard deviation.
problem Minimizing mean and standard deviation under heavy-tailed losses.
method Adapting robust mean estimation technique to include standard deviation.
result Simple approach performs as well or better than alternative risk criteria.
KD can lead to student-teacher deviations that improve performance.
problem KD can lead to student-teacher deviations that may outperform the teacher.
method Characterized and explained the nature of student-teacher deviations through experiments and theory.
result KD can lead to improved generalization by exaggerating the implicit bias of gradient descent.
Statistical analysis of financial data most focused on testing the validity of Brownian motion (Bm). Analysis performed on several time series have shown deviation from the Bm hypothesis, that is at the base of the evaluation of many financial derivatives. We inquiry in the behavior of measures of performance based on …
This work accelerates constrained sampling using large deviation principles.
problem Sampling constrained probability distributions efficiently.
method Large deviation principles applied to skew-reflected non-reversible Langevin dynamics.
result The skew-symmetric matrix accelerates convergence and reduces asymptotic variance.
Star-Shaped deviationsq-fin.RM
Introduces Star-Shaped deviation measures for risk analysis.
problem Risk measurement and analysis in finance.
method Characterizes Star-Shaped deviation measures through acceptance sets and convex deviation measures.
result Exposes the relationship between Star-Shaped risk measures and deviation measures.
LIIT uses large deviations to train neural networks faster.
problem Training neural networks requires large amounts of data, leading to inefficiencies.
method LIIT uses large deviations principle to generate and update training samples.
result LIIT achieves similar classification performance with smaller, more representative samples.
High-Dimensional Interpolators Can Be Fragile: Heavy Tails and High-Dimensional Large Deviationsmath.ST
Interpolating models can have heavy-tailed risk, leading to rare but severe errors.
problem Interpolating models' tail risk is poorly understood, affecting rare but impactful errors.
method Large-deviation methods to study the fragility of high-dimensional linear interpolators.
result Ridgeless regression exhibits heavy-tailed risk, while ridge-regularized estimators have better tail behavior.
Improved adaptive algorithms for identifying the best arm in MABs with fixed budget.
problem Identifying the best arm in stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits with a fixed sampling budget.
method Established a connection between Large Deviation Principles and adaptive algorithms, improving error probability bounds and devising new algorithms.
result The \sred algorithm outperforms existing algorithms in identifying the best arm.
Paper characterizes monotonic mean-deviation risk measures.
problem Developing consistent risk measures from mean-deviation models.
method Applying a risk-weighting function to the deviation part of a mean-deviation model.
result Characterizes monotonic mean-deviation measures as consistent risk measures.
We extend previous large deviations results for the randomised Heston model to the case of moderate deviations. The proofs involve the Gärtner-Ellis theorem and sharp large deviations tools.
SAM improves generalization in overparameterized models, but its behavior in tensorized models is less understood.
problem Understanding the implicit regularization of SAM in tensorized models.
method Scale-invariance analysis and gradient flow analysis to derive Norm Deviation as a measure of core norm imbalance, and propose Deviation-Aware Scaling (DAS).
result DAS achieves competitive or improved performance over SAM, while offering reduced computational overhead.
Paper proves large deviation principle for stochastic approximations.
problem Asymptotic estimates of learning algorithm deviations.
method Weak convergence approach to large deviations.
result Identifies appropriate scaling sequence and new representation for rate function.
This article provides a new toolbox to derive sparse recovery guarantees from small deviations on extreme singular values or extreme eigenvalues obtained in Random Matrix Theory. This work is based on Restricted Isometry Constants (RICs) which are a pivotal notion in Compressed Sensing and High-Dimensional Statistics a…
In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…
Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.
problem Large deviations in life insurance portfolios with bounded losses and variances.
method Upper bound from standard large deviations, counterexample for full large deviation principle.
result Exponential bound for average loss exceeding a threshold.
Agents trained with reinforcement learning deviate from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.
problem Deviation of reinforcement learning strategies from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.
method Two-player optimal execution game with reinforcement learning algorithms (Double Deep Q-Learning).
result Strategies learned by agents deviate significantly from Nash equilibrium, exhibiting supra-competitive solutions.
Simple mean and std-based classifier outperforms chance on 69 out of 128 time-series problems.
problem Time-series classification accuracy comparison
method Linear classifier using mean and standard deviation features
result Simple distributional features outperform chance on 69 out of 128 time-series problems
Firm Projects, NPV and Riskphysics.soc-ph
An investor is estimating net present value of a firm project and performs risk analysis. Usually it is created portfolio hierarchies and make comparison of variants of project based on these hierarchies. Then one finds that portfolio which corresponds to the particular needs of individual groups within the firm. We ha…
Study large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
problem Large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion measures on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Rough path theory and manifold-valued Malliavin calculus.
result Proved a large deviation principle for pinned hypoelliptic diffusion measures.
Proposes new deviation measures using Minkowski gauges.
problem Lack of suitable acceptance sets for deviation measures.
method Derives deviation measures through Minkowski gauges of acceptable sets.
result Any positive homogeneous deviation measure can be accommodated in the framework.
In batch reinforcement learning (RL), one often constrains a learned policy to be close to the behavior (data-generating) policy, e.g., by constraining the learned action distribution to differ from the behavior policy by some maximum degree that is the same at each state. This can cause batch RL to be overly conservat…
Representation Results for Law Invariant Recursive Dynamic Deviation Measures and Risk Sharingq-fin.RM
In this paper we analyze a dynamic recursive extension of the (static) notion of a deviation measure and its properties. We study distribution invariant deviation measures and show that the only dynamic deviation measure which is law invariant and recursive is the variance. We also solve the problem of optimal risk-sha…
We provide a unifying treatment of pathwise moderate deviations for models commonly used in financial applications, and for related integrated functionals. Suitable scaling allows us to transfer these results into small-time, large-time and tail asymptotics for diffusions, as well as for option prices and realised vari…
Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a way to speed up computations. This paper considers moderate deviations for the wei…
Connections between Lie derivatives and the deviation equation has been investigated in spaces with affine connection. The deviation equations of the geodesics as well as deviation equations of non-geodesics trajectories have been obtained on this base. This is done via imposing certain conditions on the Lie derivative…
Unified approach to stochastic Volterra systems' deviations.
problem Large and moderate deviations for stochastic Volterra systems.
method Weak convergence approach by Budhijara, Dupuis and Ellis.
result Unified treatment of deviations for a broad class of stochastic Volterra equations.
Study large deviations in random walks on Lie groups.
problem Large deviations in sub-Riemannian random walks.
method Prove large deviation principle for random walks on stratified Lie groups.
result Proved a large deviation principle with a rate function adapted to sub-Riemannian geometry.
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
Let be a smooth manifold and a semi-spray defined on a sub-bundle of the tangent bundle . In this work it is proved that the only non-trivial -jet approximation to the exact geodesic deviation equation of , linear on the deviation functions and invariant under an spec…
Optimizes variance reduction in Heston model using large and moderate deviations.
problem Improving variance reduction in stochastic volatility models.
method Large and moderate deviations theory applied to Heston model.
result Derives closed-form solutions for optimal change of measure.
Trust-aware MAB improves learning performance by accounting for human deviation.
problem Learning performance suffers when humans deviate from recommended policies due to lack of trust.
method Integrates a dynamic trust model into MAB framework, establishing minimax regret and proposing a two-stage trust-aware procedure.
result Proves near-optimal statistical guarantees for trust-aware MAB algorithms.
Large deviations theory applied to policy gradient methods.
problem Understanding convergence of policy gradient methods in reinforcement learning.
method Large deviation rate function and contraction principle from large deviations theory.
result Convergence properties of policy gradient methods can be extended to various policy parametrizations.
Study examines large deviations in random walks on hyperbolic spaces.
problem Large deviations in random walks on Gromov-hyperbolic spaces.
method Established large deviations results for distance and translation length of random walks.
result Deduced a special case of a conjecture regarding spectral radii of random matrix products.
Study large deviations and speed of random walks in hyperbolic spaces.
problem Understanding the speed of random walks in hyperbolic spaces.
method Large deviations analysis for random walks with a non-elementary semi-group.
result Established large deviations results for random walk distances.
Deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation methods.
problem Establishing bounds on the deviation of stochastic approximation methods.
method Martingale approximation method for separately Lipschitz functions.
result Established various deviation inequalities for stochastic approximation by averaging and minimization.
On the concentration of large deviations for fat tailed distributions, with application to financial datacond-mat.stat-mech
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated on a single variable. The regime of large deviations is separated from the regi…
We study a rolling model from the perspective of probability. More precisely, we consider a Riemannian manifold rolling against Euclidean space, where the rolling is coupled with random slipping and twisting. The system is modelled by a stochastic differential equation of Stratonovich-type driven by semimartingales, on…
Researchers introduce a method to assess the safety of interpretable machine learning models.
problem Ensuring safety in machine learning models that are easy to understand.
method Introduce maximum deviation as an optimization problem to find the largest deviation from a safe reference model.
result Interpretability helps in assessing the safety of machine learning models.
The displacement and deviation vectors in spaces (manifolds), the tangent bundle of which is endowed with a transport along paths, are introduced. In case these spaces are equipped with a linear connection, the deviation equations (between arbitrary, geodesic or not, paths) in such spaces are investigated.
MPC framework reduces execution costs and schedule deviations in trading.
problem Executing large orders in markets under time and liquidity constraints.
method Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework balancing order completion, market impact, and opportunity cost.
result Significant reductions in slippage and schedule shortfall compared to benchmarks.
Large deviation principle for deep neural networks with ReLU activation.
problem Understanding the behavior of deep neural networks with ReLU activation.
method Proving a large deviation principle for networks with Gaussian weights and ReLU activation functions.
result Simplified expressions and power-series expansions for the ReLU case.
Study large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
problem Large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
method Established a small-noise large deviation principle for log-price.
result Logarithmic call price asymptotics for large strikes in a special case.