Learn2Evaluate uses learning curves to estimate high-dimensional prediction performance.
problem Estimating test performance in high-dimensional data settings is challenging.
method Learn2Evaluate uses learning curves to estimate test performance at the total sample size.
result Learn2Evaluate provides a lower confidence bound for performance estimation.
Proposes MCC-F1 curve for better binary classification evaluation.
problem Misleading performance evaluations with ROC and PR curves for imbalanced data.
method Introduces MCC-F1 curve combining MCC and F1 score.
result MCC-F1 curve provides clearer classifier differentiation.
Learning curves show more data doesn't always improve performance.
problem The surprising finding that more data doesn't always lead to better generalization performance.
method A survey of learning curves, focusing on those that indicate more data doesn't necessarily improve performance.
result Learning curves can show that more data doesn't always lead to better generalization performance.
Study rectifying curves in 3D multiplicative Euclidean space.
problem Investigate rectifying curves in a non-Newtonian geometry setting.
method Apply multiplicative differential-geometric concepts to rectifying curves.
result Classify multiplicative rectifying curves using spherical curves.
Novel method for multiclass ROC curves using multidimensional Gini index.
problem Multiclass performance evaluation, especially for imbalanced datasets.
method Extends ROC curve methodology to multiclass settings using multidimensional Gini index.
result Validated through case studies in health care and finance.
LC-PFN predicts learning curve performance more accurately and faster than MCMC.
problem Bayesian extrapolation of learning curves is computationally expensive and overly restrictive.
method Prior-Data Fitted Neural Networks (PFNs) for approximate Bayesian inference.
result LC-PFN outperforms MCMC in accuracy and is significantly faster.
New multi-spiral approach improves packaging of thick membranes.
problem Deploying thick membranes on curved surfaces efficiently.
method Multi-spiral folding approach with prismatic folding lines.
result Improved deployment performance of thick membranes on curved surfaces.
Probabilistic models predict neural network performance across varying hyperparameters.
problem Predicting neural network performance with different hyperparameters.
method Probabilistic models based on random forests and Bayesian recurrent neural networks.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods.
New model predicts neural network performance from early training epochs, incorporating architecture impact.
problem Predicting neural network performance from early training epochs, neglecting architecture impact.
method Architecture-aware graph ordinary differential equation model.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods for MLP and CNN learning curves.
Paper details Hilbert-curve for high-performance data mining.
problem Efficiently mapping multi-dimensional data to one dimension.
method Defines Hilbert-curve using finite automaton and context-free grammar.
result Cache-oblivious algorithms for matrix operations and clustering.
Yield curve forecasting is an important problem in finance. In this work we explore the use of Gaussian Processes in conjunction with a dynamic modeling strategy, much like the Kalman Filter, to model the yield curve. Gaussian Processes have been successfully applied to model functional data in a variety of application…
We use learning curves to analyze deep networks and evaluate model design.
problem Evaluate design choices in deep networks.
method Propose a method to robustly estimate learning curves, abstract their parameters, and evaluate different parameterizations.
result Interesting observations on the effectiveness of different parameterizations.
Neural networks are capable of learning rich, nonlinear feature representations shown to be beneficial in many predictive tasks. In this work, we use such models to explore different geographical feature representations in the context of predicting colorectal cancer survival curves for patients in the state of Iowa, sp…
The intention with this paper is to provide all the estimation concepts and techniques that are needed to implement a two-phases approach to the parametric estimation of probability of default (PD) curves. In the first phase of this approach, a raw PD curve is estimated based on parameters that reflect discriminatory p…
Study ranks of elliptic curves via prime averages.
problem Classifying elliptic curves by rank.
method Average Frobenius trace over primes, data science experiments.
result Oscillating pattern in average trace values, correlates with rank.
A new approach for functional data description is proposed in this paper. It consists of a regression model with a discrete hidden logistic process which is adapted for modeling curves with abrupt or smooth regime changes. The model parameters are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework through a dedicated Expectat…
Proposes and evaluates three diagnostic graphics for probabilistic classifiers.
problem Evaluating and comparing probabilistic classifiers.
method Triptych of diagnostic graphics: reliability diagram, ROC curve, Murphy diagram.
result Visual diagnostics reveal distinct aspects of forecast performance.
Automatically explores geometric loci of curves using software networking.
problem Exploring hyperbolisms and geometric loci of plane curves.
method Parametric equations, Groebner bases, and elimination for deriving polynomial equations.
result Derives new constructions of lemniscates and other geometric loci.
The paper proposes using theoretical ROC curves to categorize classifier responses.
problem The lack of explicit probability distributions for classifier responses in machine learning.
method Fit beta distributions to classifier responses and use them to categorize responses into different classes.
result Established a categorization of classifier responses into classes with different ROC curve extremal behaviors.
Paper estimates optimal ROC curve arc length and AUC, improving classification performance.
problem Estimating optimal ROC curve arc length and AUC in imbalanced binary classification.
method Expresses arc length and AUC as variational objectives, estimating using positive and negative samples.
result Proposed classification procedure maximizes an approximate lower bound of maximal AUC.
No Shimura-Teichmüller curves found in genus 5.
problem Classifying Shimura-Teichmüller curves in genus 5.
method Utilized the equivalence of Shimura-Teichmüller curves to having completely degenerate Kontsevich-Zorich spectrum, and implemented a computer search to exclude remaining cases.
result No Shimura-Teichmüller curves exist in genus 5.
Machine learning classifies surface wave dispersion curves from ambient noise.
problem Classifying surface wave dispersion curves from ambient noise.
method Convolutional neural network (U-net) with transfer learning and supervised learning.
result Machine classification nearly identical to human-picked phases.
The paper studies multi-curve interest rate models and their consistency and finite-dimensional realizations.
problem Consistency and existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve interest rate models.
method Geometric approach, characterizing consistency and existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve models.
result Characterization of consistency and existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve models.
A large class of trading strategies focus on opportunities offered by the yield curve. In particular, a set of yield curve trading strategies are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts. Based on these strategies' positive performance, a multiple pairs trading strategy on major currency pairs was implemente…
A meta-learning approach for efficient algorithm selection in budget-limited scenarios.
problem Efficiently selecting the best-performing machine learning algorithm with limited computational resources.
method A Markov Decision Process framework where an agent decides whether to train, wake up, or start new algorithms based on partial learning curves.
result Meta-learning from learning curves improves algorithm selection, especially when learning curves do not intersect frequently.
New method estimates individual dose-response curves for any number of treatments.
problem Estimating individual dose-response curves for varied exposures.
method Neural network approach for learning counterfactual representations.
result Set a new state-of-the-art in estimating individual dose-response curves.
GLMM trees identify subgroups with different growth patterns in longitudinal data.
problem Identifying subgroups with distinct growth trajectories in longitudinal studies.
method Extended GLMM trees for longitudinal data.
result Extended GLMM trees outperform other methods in accuracy and speed.
The paper explores using machine learning for yield curve calibration in multiple markets.
problem Calibration challenges in multiple yield curve markets.
method Gaussian process regression and Adam optimizer.
result Good results for single curve markets, but many challenges for multi curve markets.
This work studies learning curves for revenue maximization algorithms.
problem Understanding the performance of revenue-maximizing algorithms as they learn from more data.
method Initiates the study of learning curves for revenue maximization, providing a near-complete characterization of their rate of decay.
result Learning curves for revenue maximization can decay arbitrarily slowly or almost exponentially fast, depending on the distribution and optimal revenue.
DAC provides interpretable feature importance curves for tree ensembles.
problem Challenges in understanding feature importance and prediction in tree ensembles.
method Disentangled Attribution Curves (DAC) method to visualize feature importance.
result DAC improves interpretability of tree ensembles while maintaining accuracy.
Comparison of decision curve analysis and cost curves for model evaluation.
problem Evaluating classification performance across different operating contexts.
method Comparison of Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) and Cost Curves.
result DCA and Cost Curves are closely related, with Brier curves being more generally applicable.
Many real-world objects are designed by smooth curves, especially in the domain of aerospace and ship, where aerodynamic shapes (e.g., airfoils) and hydrodynamic shapes (e.g., hulls) are designed. To facilitate the design process of those objects, we propose a deep learning based generative model that can synthesize sm…
When confronted with massive data streams, summarizing data with dimension reduction methods such as PCA raises theoretical and algorithmic pitfalls. Principal curves act as a nonlinear generalization of PCA and the present paper proposes a novel algorithm to automatically and sequentially learn principal curves from d…
This paper introduces a new property of estimators of the strength of statistical association, which helps characterize how well an estimator will perform in scenarios where dependencies between continuous and discrete random variables need to be rank ordered. The new property, termed the estimator response curve, is e…
Confidence bands for tuning curves improve hyperparameter comparison in NLP.
problem Ambiguity in comparing hyperparameter tuning methods.
method Constructs exact, simultaneous, and distribution-free confidence bands for tuning curves.
result Confidence bands provide a robust basis for comparing methods rigorously.
The study improves the assessment of fairness in face recognition using ROC curves and statistical guarantees.
problem Improving the assessment of fairness in face recognition systems.
method Proves asymptotic guarantees for empirical ROC curves and fairness metrics, and introduces a recentering technique to avoid bootstrap pitfalls.
result Demonstrates the practical relevance of the methods for assessing fairness in face recognition systems.
Geomstats introduces shape module for analyzing shapes of objects.
problem Analyzing shapes of objects represented as landmarks, curves, and surfaces.
method Implementing shape spaces, group actions, fiber bundles, quotient spaces, and Riemannian metrics.
result Users can compare, average, and interpolate shapes inside shape spaces.
This paper introduces a novel mixture model-based approach for simultaneous clustering and optimal segmentation of functional data which are curves presenting regime changes. The proposed model consists in a finite mixture of piecewise polynomial regression models. Each piecewise polynomial regression model is associat…
Study S-duality and supersymmetry on curved manifolds using localization.
problem Understanding S-duality and supersymmetry on curved manifolds.
method Localization and Fourier transform interpretation of S-duality.
result Evidence for interpreting S-duality as Fourier transform.
HAMLET optimizes algorithm selection for machine learning tasks.
problem Limited time budgets and computational resources make traditional bandit approaches ineffective for automated algorithm selection.
method HAMLET incorporates learning curve extrapolation and time-awareness to select machine learning algorithms.
result HAMLET variants outperform other bandit-based strategies in experiments with recorded hyperparameter tuning traces.
ABROCA assesses algorithmic bias, revealing skewed distributions that inflate results.
problem Detecting nuanced performance differences in classifier fairness.
method Study of ABROCA metric's statistical properties under various conditions.
result ABROCA distributions are skewed, inflating results by chance in imbalanced classes.
It is given the diffeomorphism classification on generic singularities of tangent varieties to curves with arbitrary codimension in a projective space. The generic classifications are performed in terms of certain geometric structures and differential systems on flag manifolds, via several techniques in differentiable …
In this paper we study the shape space of curves with values in a homogeneous space M=G/K, where G is a Lie group and K is a compact Lie subgroup. We generalize the square root velocity framework to obtain a reparametrization invariant metric on the space of curves in M. By identifying curves in M with thei…
Framework for transferring discount curve estimates across fixed-income product classes.
problem Challenges in estimating discount curves from sparse or noisy data.
method Proposes a vector-valued kernel ridge regression (KR) framework with economic regularization.
result Transfer learning tightens confidence intervals and improves extrapolation performance.
Generic model for commodity derivatives pricing.
problem Modeling forward curves in commodity derivatives.
method Theoretical demonstration of multiple components driving commodity prices; empirical validation.
result Model accurately prices commodity derivatives, close to market prices.
Entrocraft addresses RL performance saturation in LLMs by customizing entropy curves.
problem Performance saturation in RL algorithms for LLMs.
method Entrocraft uses rejection sampling to bias advantage distributions for customized entropy schedules.
result Entrocraft significantly improves generalization, output diversity, and long-term training in 4B models.
DynAEsti models ability as a time-varying curve, improving IRT for dynamic settings.
problem Traditional IRT models assume static ability; new approach models dynamic ability.
method DynAEsti augments traditional IRT Expectation Maximization with CurvFiFE for curve fitting.
result DynAEsti successfully recovers human performance dynamics in golf.
Efficiently models learning curves using Gaussian processes with latent Kronecker structure.
problem Joint modeling of machine learning model performance across hyper-parameters and training progress.
method Imposes latent Kronecker structure to leverage efficient product kernels and handle missing values.
result Matches the performance of a Transformer on a learning curve prediction task.