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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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3537051,0581,410 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for penalized models

Develops a method to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia.

problem Predicting stock returns with time-varying risk premia while maintaining no-arbitrage restrictions.
method Penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings, incorporating penalization in the first pass and grouping in the second pass.
result The proposed method reduces prediction errors compared to other approaches.

New method improves feature selection in tree-based models.

problem Previous feature selection methods in tree-based models lack sufficient regularization and sub-optimal performance.
method Developed a new gain penalization approach for tree-based models that allows for flexible feature-specific importance weights.
result The new method improves out-of-sample performance, especially with correlated features.

This paper introduces a gradient analysis framework to improve language model performance by rewarding good examples and penalizing bad ones.

problem Improving language model output quality by penalizing bad examples.
method Gradient analysis of loss functions to reward good examples and penalize bad ones.
result ExMATE is superior to MLE and combining DPO with ExMATE enhances performance.

We prove that L2-Boosting lacks a theoretical property which is central to the behaviour of l1-penalized methods such as basis pursuit and the Lasso: Whereas l1-penalized methods are guaranteed to recover the sparse parameter vector in a high-dimensional linear model under an appropriate restricted nullspace property, …

2018-12-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved DPO framework penalizes preference uncertainty to avoid overoptimization.

problem Aligning LLMs to human preferences is challenging due to varied, context-dependent, and ambiguous preferences.
method Developed a pessimistic framework for DPO by introducing preference uncertainty penalization schemes.
result Improved overall performance and better completions on high-uncertainty responses compared to vanilla DPO.

Paper estimates differences in multi-attribute Gaussian graphical models using non-convex penalties.

problem Estimating differences in multi-attribute Gaussian graphical models with similar structure.
method Penalized D-trace loss function with non-convex (log-sum and SCAD) penalties, proximal gradient descent methods.
result Theoretical analysis and numerical examples support consistency in support recovery and estimation.

The paper develops adaptive deep learning methods for nonlinear time series models.

problem Estimating mean functions of non-stationary and nonlinear time series models.
method Develops non-penalized and sparse-penalized DNN estimators for general non-stationary time series, derives minimax lower bounds, and shows the sparse-penalized DNN estimator is adaptive and optimal.
result Sparse-penalized DNN estimator achieves minimax optimal rates for many nonlinear AR models.

Sparse-penalized deep neural networks improve performance in weakly dependent processes.

problem Nonparametric regression and classification under weak dependence.
method Sparse-penalized deep neural networks with oracle inequalities and convergence rates established.
result The proposed estimators outperform non-penalized ones in simulations.

Researchers develop a method to learn CTBN structure using penalized maximum likelihood.

problem Learning the structure of continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) when the dependence structure is unknown.
method Penalized maximum likelihood method.
result The algorithm can accurately identify the network structure with high probability under certain conditions.

Corrects GCV for inconsistent risk estimation in finite ensembles of penalized estimators.

problem Inconsistent risk estimation of GCV for finite ensembles of penalized estimators.
method Identifies a correction involving an additional scalar correction based on degrees of freedom adjusted training errors from each ensemble component.
result CGCV maintains computational advantages of GCV and is model-free uniformly consistent for ridge regression.

Paper develops a new method for optimal stopping in American options.

problem Optimal stopping in American options with singular generators.
method Entropy-regularized penalization scheme for reflected BSDEs with singular generators.
result Limit of the penalization scheme solves a reflected BSDE with a logarithmically singular generator.

Estimation in generalized linear models (GLM) is complicated by the presence of constraints. One can handle constraints by maximizing a penalized log-likelihood. Penalties such as the lasso are effective in high dimensions, but often lead to unwanted shrinkage. This paper explores instead penalizing the squared distanc…

2017-11-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic volatility (SV) models mimic many of the stylized facts attributed to time series of asset returns, while maintaining conceptual simplicity. The commonly made assumption of conditionally normally distributed or Student-t-distributed returns, given the volatility, has however been questioned. In this manuscri…

2013-08-27abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a penalized orthogonal-components regression (POCRE) for large p small n data. Orthogonal components are sequentially constructed to maximize, upon standardization, their correlation to the response residuals. A new penalization framework, implemented via empirical Bayes thresholding, is presented to effecti…

2008-11-25abs ↗pdf ↗

In high-dimensional data analysis, penalized likelihood estimators are shown to provide superior results in both variable selection and parameter estimation. A new algorithm, APPLE, is proposed for calculating the Approximate Path for Penalized Likelihood Estimators. Both the convex penalty (such as LASSO) and the nonc…

2012-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) and ridge regression produce usually different estimates although input, loss function and parameterization of the penalty are identical. In this paper we look for ridge and lasso models with identical solution set. It turns out, that the lasso model with shri…

2014-01-10abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores MMPR to select diverse models for scientific insight.

problem Model selection often fails to bring multiple underlying patterns to light.
method Multi-model penalized regression (MMPR) to acknowledge model uncertainty.
result Different penalty settings can promote either shrinkage or sparsity of coefficients in separate models.

This paper optimizes portfolio selection by penalizing tracking error, improving Sharpe ratio.

problem Optimizing portfolio allocation with a penalty for deviation from a reference portfolio.
method Formulated as a McKean-Vlasov control problem, provides explicit solutions and asymptotic expansions.
result The penalized portfolio strategy outperforms standard mean-variance and reference portfolios in most cases.

FILTER model uses fusion penalized logistic threshold regression for high-dimensional data with unknown cut points.

problem Modeling high-dimensional data with unknown cut points and binary responses.
method Fusion penalized logistic threshold regression (FILTER) model with fused lasso penalty for variable selection.
result Established non-asymptotic error bounds for coefficient estimation and model selection consistency.

We propose a new sparsity-smoothness penalty for high-dimensional generalized additive models. The combination of sparsity and smoothness is crucial for mathematical theory as well as performance for finite-sample data. We present a computationally efficient algorithm, with provable numerical convergence properties, fo…

2008-06-25abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider the problem of unveiling the implicit network structure of node interactions (such as user interactions in a social network), based only on high-frequency timestamps. Our inference is based on the minimization of the least-squares loss associated with a multivariate Hawkes model, penalized by 1\ell_1 and t…

2015-01-04abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper develops methods to create reliable prediction sets for complex mixture models in high-dimensional data.

problem Building accurate prediction sets for high-dimensional mixture models with feature-dependent weights.
method The authors introduce a debiasing procedure and a novel interval combination strategy to construct valid prediction sets.
result The proposed method provides reliable coverage guarantees for prediction sets in high-dimensional mixture models.

We present an approach for penalized tensor decomposition (PTD) that estimates smoothly varying latent factors in multi-way data. This generalizes existing work on sparse tensor decomposition and penalized matrix decompositions, in a manner parallel to the generalized lasso for regression and smoothing problems. Our ap…

2015-02-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved convergence rates for MLE in mixture models using penalized log-likelihood.

problem Convergence rates for MLE in finite mixture models.
method Penalizing log-likelihood to discourage vanishing mixing weights, using Wasserstein distance and new loss functions.
result Improved convergence rates for some mixture components, faster than traditional methods.

The paper classifies and analyzes the stability of elastic curves with fixed endpoints.

problem Classification and stability of pinned elasticae.
method Critical points of the length-penalized elastic bending energy among planar curves with fixed endpoints.
result Explicit parametrization and classification of all critical points with a threshold parameter \(\hatλ \simeq 0.70107\).

G-computation improves clinical trial power with machine learning.

problem Balancing prognostic factors in randomized trials to prevent near-confounders.
method G-computation with penalized models (Lasso, Elasticnet) and algorithm-based methods (neural network, SVM, super learner).
result G-computation with Elasticnet and splines reduces variance and increases power in RCTs.

Matrix factorization methods are extensively employed to understand complex data. In this paper, we introduce the cross-product penalized component analysis (XCAN), a sparse matrix factorization based on the optimization of a loss function that allows a trade-off between variance maximization and structural preservatio…

2019-06-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for pattern recovery in penalized and thresholded estimation.

problem Pattern recovery in penalized and thresholded estimation methods.
method Defining a novel pattern notion based on subdifferentials, introducing accessibility and noiseless recovery conditions.
result Unified and extended conditions for pattern recovery in a broad class of penalized estimators.