A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New model improves volatility forecasting by reducing overestimation and underestimation.
We find empirically a characteristic sharp peak-flat trough pattern in a large set of commodity prices. We argue that the sharp peak structure reflects an endogenous inter-market organization, and that peaks may be seen as local ``singularities'' resulting from imitation and herding. These findings impose a novel strin…
Deep Learning is applied to energy markets to predict extreme loads observed in energy grids. Forecasting energy loads and prices is challenging due to sharp peaks and troughs that arise due to supply and demand fluctuations from intraday system constraints. We propose deep spatio-temporal models and extreme value theo…
The American economy can be thought of as a highly connected random network in terms of both its technological and informational connections. The cumulative size of economic recessions, the fall in output from peak to trough, is analysed for the US economy 1900-2002. A least squares fit of an exponential relationship b…
Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods predominantly focus on o…
A robust method for decomposing spectral peaks robust to distortion and interference.
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
In retrospective assessments, internet news reports have been shown to capture early reports of unknown infectious disease transmission prior to official laboratory confirmation. In general, media interest and reporting peaks and wanes during the course of an outbreak. In this study, we quantify the extent to which med…
Maximum drawdown, the largest cumulative loss from peak to trough, is one of the most widely used indicators of risk in the fund management industry, but one of the least developed in the context of measures of risk. We formalize drawdown risk as Conditional Expected Drawdown (CED), which is the tail mean of maximum dr…
Investors in stock market are usually greedy during bull markets and scared during bear markets. The greed or fear spreads across investors quickly. This is known as the herding effect, and often leads to a fast movement of stock prices. During such market regimes, stock prices change at a super-exponential rate and ar…
The financial crisis of 2008 generated interest in more transparent, rules-based strategies for portfolio construction, with Smart beta strategies emerging as a trend among institutional investors. While they perform well in the long run, these strategies often suffer from severe short-term drawdown (peak-to-trough dec…
LLMs learn peaked distributions slowly due to power-law losses.
In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain an…
Adaptive portfolio outperforms static alternatives by 120% over 5 years.
Paper proposes a network framework for prosumers to manage peak loads in Iran.
Extracts important peaks from XRD spectra using Attention mechanism.
Proposes a new framework for investing that adapts to market regimes.
Mapping spaces of supermanifolds are usually thought as exclusively in functorial terms (i.e. trough the Grothendieck functor of points). In this work we provide a geometric description of such mapping spaces in terms of infinite-dimensional super-vector bundles.
By variational methods, for a kind of Webster scalar curvature problems on the CR sphere with cylindrically symmetric curvature, we construct some multi-peak solutions as the parameter is sufficiently small under certain assumptions. We also obtain the asymptotic behaviors of the solutions.
This article considers a model for alternative processes for securities prices and compares this model with actual return data of several securities. The distributions of returns that appear in the model can be Gaussian as well as non-Gaussian; in particular they may have two peaks. We consider a discrete Markov chain …
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the b…
Quality-Diversity algorithms explore multiple high-performing solutions in a search space.
Based on the daily data of American and Chinese stock markets, the dynamic behavior of a financial network with static and dynamic thresholds is investigated. Compared with the static threshold, the dynamic threshold suppresses the large fluctuation induced by the cross-correlation of individual stock prices, and leads…
Using publicly available traffic camera data in New York City, we quantify time-dependent patterns in aggregate pedestrian foot traffic. These patterns exhibit repeatable diurnal behaviors that differ for weekdays and weekends but are broadly consistent across neighborhoods in the borough of Manhattan. Weekday patterns…
We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which emphasize the role of fancy and collective behavior. In our conclusion, we propose a…
Study improves crash rate forecasting in Washington, D.C. using stochastic volatility model.
SPADE improves demand forecasting accuracy by 4.5% for post-promotion periods.
Learning representations for feature interactions to model user behaviors is critical for recommendation system and click-trough rate (CTR) predictions. Recent advances in this area are empowered by deep learning methods which could learn sophisticated feature interactions and achieve the state-of-the-art result in an …
Joint peak detection is a central problem when comparing samples in genomic data analysis, but current algorithms for this task are unsupervised and limited to at most 2 sample types. We propose PeakSegJoint, a new constrained maximum likelihood segmentation model for any number of sample types. To select the number of…
Mass spectrometry (MS) is an important technique for chemical profiling which calculates for a sample a high dimensional histogram-like spectrum. A crucial step of MS data processing is the peak picking which selects peaks containing information about molecules with high concentrations which are of interest in an MS in…
We study the activity, i.e., the number of transactions per unit time, of financial markets. Using the diffusion entropy technique we show that the autocorrelation of the activity is caused by the presence of peaks whose time distances are distributed following an asymptotic power law which ultimately recovers the Pois…
Study on-chain peak shaving to reduce Ethereum transaction costs.
The paper explains two distinct peaks in generalization error for neural networks and simpler models, each governed by different factors.
The heuristic identification of peaks from noisy complex spectra often leads to misunderstanding of the physical and chemical properties of matter. In this paper, we propose a framework based on Bayesian inference, which enables us to separate multipeak spectra into single peaks statistically and consists of two steps.…
Fourier methods have a long and proven track record as an excellent tool in data processing. As memory and computational constraints gain importance in embedded and mobile applications, we propose to combine Fourier methods and recurrent neural network architectures. The short-time Fourier transform allows us to effici…
Study of 17 surface behaviors and singularities for elliptic Weingarten equations.
Study reveals differences in medical image models' hidden representation refinement.
The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are well predi…
Bayesian framework integrates spectral deconvolution with expert reasoning for robust peak estimation.
FLOPART solves peak detection by creating accurate train and test set predictions.
Model explains herding and volatility in urban housing prices.
Financial time series typically exhibit strong fluctuations that cannot be described by a Gaussian distribution. In recent empirical studies of stock market indices it was examined whether the distribution P(r) of returns r(tau) after some time tau can be described by a (truncated) Levy-stable distribution L_{alpha}(r)…
The paper shows how the generalization curve can have multiple peaks, influenced by data and learning algorithm biases.
PEAKS selects key training examples incrementally based on prediction error and kernel similarity.
PEAK tests means of multiple data streams with sequential betting.
Data analysis in high-dimensional spaces aims at obtaining a synthetic description of a data set, revealing its main structure and its salient features. We here introduce an approach providing this description in the form of a topography of the data, namely a human-readable chart of the probability density from which t…
The "double descent" risk curve was proposed to qualitatively describe the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of variably-parameterized machine learning models. This article provides a precise mathematical analysis for the shape of this curve in two simple data models with the least squares/least norm predictor. Specifi…
Finite-time queue peaks in stochastic networks have logarithmic scaling after geometric thresholds.