A new method reduces Monte Carlo variance for financial payoffs.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo estimators for financial payoffs.
method Path-dependent importance sampling using neural networks.
result Significant variance reduction (2-9 times) for various financial payoffs.
The use of sequential Monte Carlo within simulation for path-dependent option pricing is proposed and evaluated. Recently, it was shown that explicit solutions and importance sampling are valuable for efficient simulation of spot price and volatility, especially for purposes of path-dependent option pricing. The result…
New simulation approaches to evaluating path-dependent options without matrix inversion issues nor Euler bias are evaluated. They employ three main contributions: Stochastic approximation replaces regression in the LSM algorithm; Explicit weak solutions to stochastic differential equations are developed and applied to …
The study examines insurance demand under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
problem Optimal insurance and investment strategies under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
method Rough volatility model and Hawkes process with power kernel, Functional Ito formula extension.
result Individuals demand more catastrophe insurance when path-dependent effects are considered.
Paper proposes method for generating paths of stochastic volatility CGMY process for option pricing.
problem Generating accurate sample paths for stochastic volatility models for option pricing.
method Monte-Carlo method for European and American options, least square regression for calibration.
result Calibrated model parameters to S\&P 100 index options market using path-dependent options.
We develop generic and efficient importance sampling estimators for Monte Carlo evaluation of prices of single- and multi-asset European and path-dependent options in asset price models driven by Lévy processes, extending earlier works which focused on the Black-Scholes and continuous stochastic volatility models. Usin…
Linking SV and PDV models for better volatility forecasts.
problem Improving volatility forecasting models.
method Assumed density filtering to map SV models to PDV representations, introducing calibration procedure.
result Improves in-sample fit and robust out-of-sample forecasts.
Understanding and measuring model risk is important to financial practitioners. However, there lacks a non-parametric approach to model risk quantification in a dynamic setting and with path-dependent losses. We propose a complete theory generalizing the relative-entropic approach by Glasserman and Xu to the dynamic ca…
Extend classical theory of affine processes to path-dependent setting
problem Path-dependent affine processes
method Introduce path-dependent coefficients and provide analytic formulas for their Fourier--Laplace transform
result Define path-dependent affine processes through their exponential-affine Fourier--Laplace transform and establish a characterization theorem
The paper develops methods to price and hedge options in path-dependent stock models.
problem Pricing and hedging options under complex stock models.
method Develops a path-dependent PDE for option pricing and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
result Provides formulas for option Greeks and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
Neural Jump ODEs model Itô processes without adversarial training.
problem Generating samples from Itô processes with irregular data.
method Neural Jump ODEs framework for drift and diffusion approximation.
result NJODEs can recover true parameters of Itô processes in the limit.
Develops a numerical scheme for solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs.
problem Solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs numerically.
method Picard iteration method for FBSDEs, concentration inequality for estimator, supervised learning with neural networks for PDEs.
result Proves convergence and rate of convergence for the Picard iteration method.
This work analyzes nonexpansive stochastic approximations with Markovian noise, proving convergence in reinforcement learning.
problem Applying stochastic approximation to reinforcement learning settings with nonexpansive operators.
method Investigates nonexpansive stochastic approximations with Markovian noise, providing asymptotic and finite sample analysis.
result First-time proof of convergence for classical tabular average reward temporal difference learning.
Dupire's functional Itô calculus provides an alternative approach to the classical Malliavin calculus for the computation of sensitivities, also called Greeks, of path-dependent derivatives prices. In this paper, we introduce a measure of path-dependence of functionals within the functional Itô calculus framework. Name…
Paper tackles non-Markovian control problems with new learning methods.
problem Non-Markovian stochastic control problems with unknown parameters.
method Off-model training and importance sampling for deep neural network approximation.
result Quantitative error bounds for adaptive learning under model uncertainty.
Unified framework for drawdown risk computation under Markov models.
problem High computational challenges in drawdown risk metrics.
method Unified framework for computing five drawdown quantities under general Markov models, using linear systems and efficient algorithms.
result Efficient algorithms achieve same complexity as path-independent problems, validated by rigorous convergence analysis and extensive experiments.
Study uses neural networks to improve option pricing accuracy.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo estimators for option pricing.
method Characterizes neural networks' universal approximation property and applies it to sampling measures.
result Sampling measures generated by neural networks can approximate optimal measures arbitrarily well.
Deep learning predicts path-dependent processes from historical data.
problem Predicting path-dependent processes using historical data.
method Nonparametric regression with deep neural networks.
result Deep learning method converges to theoretical predictions as observation frequency increases.
Path-dependent PDEs model VIX and Realised Variance options.
problem Modeling volatility derivatives with path-dependence.
method Continuous stochastic volatility model with Gaussian Volterra process, proving well-posedness of PDEs.
result Formulae for greeks and implied volatility provided, finite-dimensional pricing PDEs obtained in Markovian models.
We use Karhunen-Loève expansion for efficient pricing of exotic derivatives.
problem Efficient pricing of path-dependent options.
method Karhunen-Loève expansion and Monte Carlo simulation.
result Fast and accurate computation of exotic derivatives pricing.
In this paper, we introduce and develop the theory of semimartingale optimal transport in a path dependent setting. Instead of the classical constraints on marginal distributions, we consider a general framework of path dependent constraints. Duality results are established, representing the solution in terms of path d…
Deep signature algorithm for pricing path-dependent options.
problem Pricing path-dependent options with complex payoff functions.
method Extended backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, incorporating signature layer for path-dependent FBSDEs.
result Convergence analysis of the algorithm with explicit dependence on truncation order and neural network approximation errors.
In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire's functional Ito calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent deriv…
The paper provides an efficient method to price path-dependent derivatives using multiscale stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing path-dependent derivatives under multiscale stochastic volatility models.
method Derives a Malliavin representation for the first-order approximation of the price of path-dependent derivatives.
result An efficient Monte Carlo approximation for pricing path-dependent derivatives is derived.
Model-free expression for SSR derived in terms of characteristic function.
problem Calculating the skew-stickiness-ratio (SSR) in financial markets.
method Model-free expression using characteristic function, focusing on diffusion and affine forward variance cases.
result General formula for SSR simplifies and becomes particularly tractable in affine forward variance cases, with a limit of H+3/2 for short-term limit. Extends Itô's formula for path-dependent functions in finance.
problem Modeling and hedging of path-dependent financial options.
method Functional extension of Itô's formula for C^{0,1}-functions of continuous weak Dirichlet processes.
result Validates the hedging or superhedging problems for path-dependent options.
Extends PD-NJ-ODE to noisy observations and dependent observation times.
problem Predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and noisy observations.
method Extends PD-NJ-ODE to handle conditional independence and noisy observations.
result Theoretical guarantees and empirical examples for handling noisy observations and dependent observation times.
PDGM uses neural nets to solve complex financial equations.
problem Solving path-dependent partial differential equations (PPDEs)
method Generalized Deep Galerkin Method (PDGM) combining feed-forward and LSTM architectures
result PDGM successfully models solutions to various PPDEs, including financial derivatives.
New control theory for self-path-dependent problems solves unique constraints.
problem Optimal control with self-path-dependent constraints in stochastic systems.
method Introduces new HJB equations for variational inequalities with historical maximum controls.
result Value functions are viscosity solutions to HJB equations under Lipschitz conditions.
In this paper, we give a numerical method for pricing long maturity, path dependent options by using the Markov property for each underlying asset. This enables us to approximate a path dependent option by using some kinds of plain vanillas. We give some examples whose underlying assets behave as some popular Levy proc…
LOV model calibrates European and American options with path-dependent volatility.
problem Calibrating European and American options with path-dependent volatility.
method Designing a local volatility model that incorporates path-dependent shocks through an occupation sensitivity function.
result LOV model successfully calibrates options chains with automatic European vanilla option calibration and path-dependent flexibility.
Novel signature approach for pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
problem Pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
method Signature approach, mean-quadratic variation criterion, non-standard infinite-dimensional Riccati equations, time-augmented signature, non-Markovian stochastic control problem.
result Effective hedging strategies in frictional markets with low-truncated signature approximations.
We investigate the computational aspects of the basket CDS pricing with counterparty risk under a credit contagion model of multinames. This model enables us to capture the systematic volatility increases in the market triggered by a particular bankruptcy. The drawback of this problem is its analytical complication due…
Develops a new causal model for path-dependent link prediction.
problem Existing causal models assume fixed node factors, but real-world links can depend on existing ones.
method Introduces causal lifting and structural pairwise embeddings for path-dependent link prediction.
result Validated on three scenarios, demonstrating improved accuracy for causal link prediction.
Study bounds financial path expectations using martingale distributions.
problem Bounding path-dependent financial expectations over martingale distributions.
method Relaxed martingale optimal transport problem, approximated via linear programming.
result Empirical relaxation can be approximated within O(n^(-1/2)) error.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
Study rough volatility models using path-dependent PDEs and fractional Brownian motions.
problem Modeling and analyzing rough volatility in financial markets.
method Showed conditional expectations are unique classical solutions to path-dependent PDEs derived from functional Itô formula. Leverage these to study weak rates of convergence for discretized stochastic integrals.
result Obtained optimal weak error rates for approximating log-stock prices in rough volatility models.
Robust PDE method for path-dependent Asian-style options using MPDATA.
problem Valuation of path-dependent Asian-style options.
method Non-oscillatory forward-in-time second-order MPDATA finite-difference scheme for solving 2D PDEs.
result MPDATA scheme improves solution over first-order upwind step, highlighting its importance.
Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.
problem Optimal execution in statistical arbitrage strategies with dynamic predictive signals.
method Signature-based framework modeling alpha and trading speed as linear functionals of truncated signature of market path.
result Fitted policy achieves higher return on turnover compared to a z-score benchmark.
A new model for S&P 500 and VIX options pricing and calibration.
problem Calibrating and pricing S&P 500 and VIX options with a 4-factor path-dependent volatility model.
method Pathwise neural network approximation of VIX, leveraging Markovianity of the 4-factor model.
result The model accurately fits S&P 500 implied volatilities and reproduces VIX option smiles.
Deep learning models price convertible bonds with complex reset and call features.
problem Pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent reset and call provisions.
method Formulated as a PPDE, deep learning approximates conditional expectations.
result Deep learning produces stable and accurate prices across various model specifications.
We consider a general path-dependent version of the hedging problem with price impact of Bouchard et al. (2019), in which a dual formulation for the super-hedging price is obtained by means of PDE arguments, in a Markovian setting and under strong regularity conditions. Using only probabilistic arguments, we prove, in …
This paper develops a mathematical framework for the analysis of continuous-time trading strategies which, in contrast to the classical setting of continuous-time mathematical finance, does not rely on stochastic integrals or other probabilistic notions. Our purely analytic framework allows for the derivation of a path…
A model for insider trading with past price dependencies.
problem Modeling insider trading with past price information.
method Functional Itô calculus for path-dependent price functions.
result Existence of equilibrium conditions for insider trading.
The paper compares machine learning methods with traditional techniques for pricing and sensitivities of financial products with path-dependent structures.
problem Evaluating financial products with early-termination clauses, especially those with path-dependent structures.
method The paper compares regression methods including randomized recurrent and feed-forward neural networks, and a novel approach using signatures of the underlying price process, with traditional polynomial basis functions for pricing and sensitivities.
result Machine learning algorithms often match the accuracy and efficiency of traditional methods for Asian and look-back options, while randomized neural networks are best for callable certificates.
Study path-dependent affine models under uncertain parameters for financial applications.
problem Valuation of path-dependent financial derivatives under parameter uncertainty.
method Developed path-dependent setting for value function, established dynamic programming principle, approximated functional derivatives with neural networks.
result Efficient numerical methods for valuation of complex financial derivatives under parameter uncertainty.
Develops a new solver for path-dependent PDEs using signature kernels.
problem Solving path-dependent PDEs (PPDEs) efficiently and accurately.
method Uses signature kernels to solve PPDEs by approximating the solution with minimal norm in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result Proves the consistency of the numerical scheme, ensuring convergence to PPDE solutions as the number of collocation points increases.
The paper predicts cryptocurrency prices using a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency prices with volatility and jumps.
method Merton's jump diffusion model with machine learning, traditional, and statistical methods.
result Introduced a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation for cryptocurrency price prediction.