Functional approach calculates path probabilities in stochastic motion.
problem Calculating path probabilities in stochastic motion.
method Functional technique applied to derive path probability distribution.
result General formula derived for path probability distribution.
Study of most probable paths for anisotropic Brownian motions on manifolds.
problem Characterizing paths of Brownian motions with anisotropic diffusion on manifolds.
method Using stochastic development and fiber bundle of linear frames, the study provides a comprehensive characterization of most probable paths.
result Explicit equations and integration methods for most probable paths on different geometries, including constant curvature surfaces.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
Develops methods to find most probable paths on complex manifolds.
problem Identifying optimal paths for manifold-valued processes, especially those with non-trivial structures.
method Constructs a general approach to defining and identifying most probable paths by measuring the Onsager-Machlup function on the anti-development of such processes.
result Derives explicit equations for development most probable paths that encompass various manifold-valued processes.
Flow Matching enables robust training of CNFs with various probability paths.
problem Training Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs) at large scales.
method Flow Matching (FM) is a simulation-free approach for training CNFs by regressing vector fields of conditional probability paths.
result Flow Matching with diffusion paths yields more robust and stable training compared to diffusion-based methods.
CNFs learn on manifolds using PPD, improving likelihood and sample quality.
problem Training CNFs on manifolds efficiently and accurately.
method Minimizing PPD, a novel divergence, to train CNFs on manifolds.
result CNFs trained with PPD achieve state-of-the-art results on manifold benchmarks.
This work develops a generic framework, called the bag-of-paths (BoP), for link and network data analysis. The central idea is to assign a probability distribution on the set of all paths in a network. More precisely, a Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution is defined over a bag of paths in a network, that is, on a representati…
A new method for pricing and hedging options without using probability theory.
problem Pricing and hedging financial options using traditional probability methods.
method Using rough paths to encode volatility and enhance price trajectories for pathwise replication.
result A robust hedging strategy that is less sensitive to model misspecification.
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
A Bayesian framework models dynamic probability predictions over time.
problem Dynamic probability predictions over time in various settings.
method Gaussian latent information martingale (GLIM) framework.
result GLIM outperforms baseline methods in predicting future uncertainties.
Develops a machine learning framework for computing most probable paths in stochastic systems.
problem Computing the most probable paths in stochastic dynamical systems.
method Reformulates the boundary value problem of Hamiltonian systems and uses a neural network to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for the Onsager-Machlup action functional.
result Demonstrates the efficacy and accuracy of the machine learning approach in computing most probable paths for stochastic systems with various types of noise.
The paper defines conditions for Gaussian process sample path regularity.
problem Lack of understanding of Gaussian process sample path regularity.
method Analyzes covariance kernels to determine sample path regularity.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for Hölder regularity are provided.
BWFlow improves graph generation by smoothly interpolating graph components.
problem Disjoint modeling of graph nodes and edges leads to irregular and non-smooth probability paths.
method Modeling graphs as MRFs and using optimal transport displacement for a smooth probability path.
result BWFlow achieves better training convergence and efficient sampling in graph generation.
This paper optimizes paths for generative models using kinetic energy.
problem Improving generative model performance and sample quality.
method Investigating and optimizing Gaussian probability paths with kinetic energy.
result Kinetic optimal Gaussian paths simplify particle trajectories and improve model performance.
This paper introduces a novel, well-founded, betweenness measure, called the Bag-of-Paths (BoP) betweenness, as well as its extension, the BoP group betweenness, to tackle semisupervised classification problems on weighted directed graphs. The objective of semi-supervised classification is to assign a label to unlabele…
Study uses Bayes Hilbert framework to recover probability measure flows from sensors.
problem Recovering probability measure flows from moving sensors in a Hilbert space.
method Bayes Hilbert framework, minimum-energy transport, linearization, variational theory.
result Localized sensors can recover reduced path directions but not full state space.
New bounds on knotting probability of equilateral hexagons found.
problem Determining the knotting probability of equilateral hexagons.
method Symplectic geometry techniques to parametrize and analyze the space of equilateral hexagons.
result New bounds on the knotting probability of equilateral hexagons.
This paper uses probability tensors for efficient path planning in complex scenarios.
problem Efficient path planning in complex environments with obstacles and multiple goals.
method Probability tensors are used to model agent motion and decision-making, incorporating past and future information.
result The model finds solutions in complex scenarios, demonstrating realistic emergent behaviors.
The relaxed maximum entropy problem is concerned with finding a probability distribution on a finite set that minimizes the relative entropy to a given prior distribution, while satisfying relaxed max-norm constraints with respect to a third observed multinomial distribution. We study the entire relaxation path for thi…
Representations based on random walks can exploit discrete data distributions for clustering and classification. We extend such representations from discrete to continuous distributions. Transition probabilities are now calculated using a diffusion equation with a diffusion coefficient that inversely depends on the dat…
This paper establishes a non-stochastic analogue of the celebrated result by Dubins and Schwarz about reduction of continuous martingales to Brownian motion via time change. We consider an idealized financial security with continuous price path, without making any stochastic assumptions. It is shown that typical price …
New algorithms sample from complex path measures using neural networks.
problem Sampling from posterior path measures under a general prior process.
method Combines controlled equilibrium dynamics and optimization in infinite-dimensional probability space.
result The algorithms can be integrated with neural networks for learning target trajectory ensembles.
Study Fourier estimator for spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps.
problem Estimating spot volatility with unbounded coefficients and jumps in price process.
method Fourier estimator for spot volatility, convergence analysis for unbounded coefficients and jumps.
result Convergence of trigonometric polynomial to volatility's path, almost sure convergence of reconstructed volatility.
Efficient hybrid method for pricing barrier options with stochastic volatility.
problem Valuation of barrier options on assets with stochastic volatility.
method Combining Monte Carlo simulation and semi-analytical heat potential method.
result Our method provides better accuracy and is orders of magnitude faster than existing methods.
Geometric approach clusters intersecting manifolds with high probability.
problem Clustering intersecting d-dimensional manifolds.
method Compute locality graph on d-simplices using dihedral angles, then compute LAPD to separate manifold components.
result The method separates manifold components with high probability under random sampling.
The paper explores shortest path embeddings on surfaces.
problem Whether every topologically embeddable graph can be embedded as shortest paths on surfaces.
method Investigates Riemannian metrics on surfaces to find shortest path embeddings.
result For some metrics, every graph embeddable on a surface can be embedded as shortest paths.
Computes transition probability between learning tasks, decomposing it into geometry and path difficulty.
problem Predicting success in transfer learning between different learning tasks.
method Decomposes transition probability into two factors: geometry of loss landscapes and path difficulty.
result Derives strict lower bounds on learning complexity, showing that geometry alone is insufficient.
FFM generates functions between Gaussian and data distributions.
problem Generating functions between Gaussian and data distributions.
method Define a path of measures, learn a vector field to generate this path.
result FFM outperforms other function-space generative models.
Defines financial models without probability theory.
problem Establishing martingale theory without probability.
method Introducing supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in continuous price paths.
result Probability-free versions of martingale results established.
Study volatility models with rough paths, focusing on large deviations and option behavior.
problem Analyzing volatility in financial markets with very rough paths.
method Introduced time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models with Volterra Gaussian processes.
result Obtained large deviation principles for log-price processes in super rough Gaussian models.
We consider idealized financial markets in which price paths of the traded securities are cadlag functions, imposing mild restrictions on the allowed size of jumps. We prove the existence of quadratic variation for typical price paths, where the qualification "typical" means that there is a trading strategy that risks …
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
Kernel for Lévy rough paths derived from PDE system.
problem Computing similarity measures for Lévy rough paths.
method Developed a PDE system for the expected signature of inhomogeneous Lévy processes.
result Gaussian martingales' expected signature kernel satisfies a Goursat PDE.
Framework uses optimal transport to quantify model risk in stochastic path laws.
problem Model risk in stochastic path laws.
method Signature-induced optimal transport framework.
result Explicit robust bounds and budget-aware sparse surrogate method.
We introduce a new method to measure model risk using optimal transport on path signatures.
problem Measuring model risk in financial and insurance models.
method Signature-induced optimal transport framework.
result Explicit robust bounds and a budget-aware sparse surrogate method.
In this note, we explicitly solve the problem of maximizing utility of consumption (until the minimum of bankruptcy and the time of death) with a constraint on the probability of lifetime ruin, which can be interpreted as a risk measure on the whole path of the wealth process.
The paper explains the equity premium without probabilistic assumptions.
problem Understanding the equity premium and CAPM without probabilistic assumptions.
method Develops game-theoretic probability in continuous-time financial markets.
result Derives a simple expression for the equity premium and a version of CAPM.
The paper improves semantic interpolation in latent spaces of implicit models.
problem Interpolating between latent points in implicit models requires careful distributional matching.
method Proposes modifying the prior code distribution to concentrate more probability mass near the origin.
result Linear interpolation paths are shortest and pass through high-density regions, improving sample quality and semantics.
Model predicts stock price dynamics using quantum gauge theory.
problem Predicting short-term stock price movements.
method Path integral model based on quantum gauge theory.
result Model accurately predicts stock price distributions.
Unified approach to DP problems using Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference.
problem Solving classical optimal path problems in a probabilistic framework.
method Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference for latent optimal paths.
result Unified approach transforms DP problems into directed acyclic graphs with Gibbs distribution.
Solar algorithm selects variables faster and more accurately in high-dimensional data.
problem Variable selection in high-dimensional data with high accuracy and stability.
method Subsample-ordered least-angle regression (solar) and its coordinate descent generalization (solar-cd) using L0 norm solution path averaging. result Solar selects variables with high accuracy and stability, reducing redundant variable selection.
Paper proposes efficient algorithm for learning causal Bayesian networks using path queries.
problem Learning the exact structure of causal Bayesian networks from observational data.
method Polynomial time algorithm using interventional path queries to identify directed paths.
result Logarithmic sample complexity for learning transitive reduction of causal Bayesian networks.
New MCMC method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging for classical MCMC methods.
method Interpolating along the diffusion path, preserving mode weights and mixing properties.
result MAD-Path sampler improves global exploration and mode-weight estimation.
New graph distances derived from optimal transport framework using path flows.
problem Develop new graph distances for clustering and classification.
method Bag-of-paths framework with Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution and optimal transport relaxation.
result Interpolates between shortest-path and resistance distances, improving performance.
Proposes a method to learn fair classifiers without restrictive assumptions.
problem Fairness in machine learning decisions for individuals.
method Defines PIU and optimizes to control its upper bound.
result Guarantees fairness for each individual without restrictive assumptions.
Paper proves game-theoretic and measure-theoretic expectations match for a specific financial scenario.
problem Proving equivalence between game-theoretic and measure-theoretic probability.
method New broad definition of game-theoretic probability; proving coincidence of expectations for lower semicontinuous positive functionals.
result Coincidence of game-theoretic and measure-theoretic expectations for specific financial scenario.
Predicts next actions in soccer possessions using path signatures.
problem Predicting next actions in soccer possessions with high accuracy.
method Leveraging path signatures to encode spatio-temporal structure of recent possessions, avoiding manual feature engineering.
result Our approach outperforms transformer-based benchmarks across various loss metrics and reduces computational cost.