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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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255176101 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for path hypotheses

A framework for hypothesis testing on attributed graphs using sampling.

problem Statistical testing on graph data, especially large attributed graphs.
method Sampling-based framework with PHASE and PHASEopt for accurate and efficient hypothesis testing.
result PHASE and PHASEopt improve accuracy and efficiency of hypothesis testing in attributed graphs.

Testing-by-betting strategies almost surely go bankrupt under null hypotheses.

problem Understanding the behavior of betting strategies under null hypotheses.
method Analyzed the asymptotics of betting strategies under null distributions, focusing on the almost sure divergence of sums.
result Testing-by-betting strategies go bankrupt with probability one under any non-degenerate null distribution.

Paper tackles efficient learning of non-convex hypotheses in metric spaces.

problem Efficiently find consistent hypotheses for non-convex hypotheses composed of possibly several disconnected regions.
method Proposes a general domain-independent algorithm for finding consistent weakly convex hypotheses and proves sufficient conditions for its efficiency.
result Shows that consistent hypothesis finding problem can be solved in polynomial time for a broad class of weakly convex hypotheses over metric spaces.

DivDis learns diverse hypotheses from underspecified data to improve robustness.

problem Learning from underspecified datasets leads to multiple equally viable solutions, causing out-of-distribution issues.
method DivDis framework: 1) learns diverse hypotheses using unlabeled test data, 2) selects one hypothesis with minimal additional supervision.
result DivDis finds robust features in image and natural language processing problems.

Machine Learning benefits from prior information and computational power for better performance and understanding.

problem Improper use of Machine Learning methods leads to lack of understanding and performance issues.
method Employing prior information and computational power to solve learning problems, emphasizing interpretability and performance.
result Combining prior information and computational power can lead to better understanding and performance in Machine Learning.

Boosting is a celebrated machine learning approach which is based on the idea of combining weak and moderately inaccurate hypotheses to a strong and accurate one. We study boosting under the assumption that the weak hypotheses belong to a class of bounded capacity. This assumption is inspired by the common convention t…

2020-01-31abs ↗pdf ↗

New method uses LLMs to generate detailed scientific hypotheses.

problem Generating detailed, actionable scientific hypotheses from coarse initial directions.
method Hierarchical search method that incrementally adds details to hypotheses.
result Hierarchical search method consistently outperforms strong baselines on expert-annotated hypotheses.

Sequential tests for nonparametric hypotheses using supermartingales.

problem Designing valid sequential tests for nonparametric null hypotheses.
method Using elicitable and identifiable functionals, nonnegative supermartingales, and Online Convex Optimization.
result Rigorous guarantees on asymptotic power for a wide range of alternative hypotheses.

In many practical applications of multiple hypothesis testing using the False Discovery Rate (FDR), the given hypotheses can be naturally partitioned into groups, and one may not only want to control the number of false discoveries (wrongly rejected null hypotheses), but also the number of falsely discovered groups of …

2015-12-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Enhances selective inference for generalized lasso using parametric programming.

problem Low statistical power in selective inference for generalized lasso.
method Parametric programming to compute solution paths and identify model selection events.
result Improves selective inference power and practicality for various problems.

Hypothesis testing in singular models is fundamentally about identifiable vs. non-identifiable parameters.

problem Testing in singular models is inherently problematic due to non-identifiability and degeneracy of Fisher information.
method Formalized the overlap obstruction and showed that hypotheses over non-identifiable parameters are untestable, while those over identifiable parameters reduce to classical testing.
result Hypotheses over non-identifiable parameters are untestable, while those over identifiable parameters reduce to classical testing.

s-RBFN integrates multiple hypotheses for efficient and diverse prediction.

problem Integrating multiple hypotheses into learning models for regression.
method Structured Radial Basis Function Network (s-RBFN) using Voronoi tessellations and least-squares training.
result s-RBFN achieves superior generalization and efficiency compared to other models.

Near-optimal private tests for simple and MLR hypotheses developed under Gaussian differential privacy.

problem Developing private tests for simple and MLR hypotheses under Gaussian differential privacy.
method A private mean estimator with data-driven clamping bounds, constructing private test statistics.
result Private tests achieve the same asymptotic relative efficiency as non-private most powerful tests.

Confirmation bias leads to biased estimates in noisy data analysis.

problem Confirmation bias affects scientific conclusions in noisy data environments.
method Investigation of confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models using K-means and EM algorithms.
result Estimates from algorithms are biased and resemble initial hypotheses, not the noise.

The paper proves weaker conditions for global smoothings of special Lagrangian submanifolds with conical singularities.

problem Conditions for global smoothings of special Lagrangian submanifolds with isolated conical singularities.
method Proof of weaker conditions for global smoothings.
result Global smoothings are possible under weaker hypotheses than previously known.

Study identifies and analyzes spurious correlations in data-driven models.

problem Spurious correlations in data-driven models are unreliable and hard to detect.
method Collect and analyze synthetic datasets generated from causal graphs to investigate spurious correlations.
result Patterns connecting spurious correlation hypotheses and model design choices were observed.

Boosting algorithms produce a classifier by iteratively combining base hypotheses. It has been observed experimentally that the generalization error keeps improving even after achieving zero training error. One popular explanation attributes this to improvements in margins. A common goal in a long line of research, is …

2019-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

We consider a distributed learning setup where a network of agents sequentially access realizations of a set of random variables with unknown distributions. The network objective is to find a parametrized distribution that best describes their joint observations in the sense of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Apart fr…

2016-05-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…

2017-09-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Monotonic Linear Interpolation property in neural networks persists despite non-convexity.

problem Understanding the geometric properties of neural network loss landscapes.
method Tools from differential geometry to analyze the monotonicity of neural network weights.
result Sufficient conditions for the Monotonic Linear Interpolation property under mean squared error.

Drawing on some recent results that provide the formalism necessary to definite stationarity for infinite random graphs, this paper initiates the study of statistical and learning questions pertaining to these objects. Specifically, a criterion for the existence of a consistent test for complex hypotheses is presented,…

2017-08-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Context. Generative models open up the possibility to interrogate scientific data in a more data-driven way. Aims: We propose a method that uses generative models to explore hypotheses in astrophysics and other areas. We use a neural network to show how we can independently manipulate physical attributes by encoding ob…

2018-12-03abs ↗pdf ↗

LLM agents discover cryptocurrency factors under reproducible constraints.

problem Flexibility of LLM agents in empirical discovery leads to uncontrolled search.
method Sequential hypothesis search with fixed data splits and portfolio tests.
result Ridge-combined portfolio achieves 44.55% annualized return in out-of-sample period.

Unified method for MMD variance estimation improves accuracy and computational efficiency.

problem Variance estimation for MMD in nonparametric testing.
method Unified finite-sample characterization of MMD variance through U-statistic and Hoeffding decomposition; exact acceleration method for univariate case.
result Unified estimators improve accuracy and computational efficiency for MMD variance.

In this paper, we prove a general halfspace theorem for constant mean curvature surfaces. Under certain hypotheses, we prove that, in an ambient space M^3, any constant mean curvature H_0 surface on one side of a constant mean curvature H_0 surface Σ_0 is an equidistant surface to Σ_0. The main hypotheses of the theore…

2010-07-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural networks enjoy widespread use, but many aspects of their training, representation, and operation are poorly understood. In particular, our view into the training process is limited, with a single scalar loss being the most common viewport into this high-dimensional, dynamic process. We propose a new window into …

2019-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The problem of finding itemsets that are statistically significantly enriched in a class of transactions is complicated by the need to correct for multiple hypothesis testing. Pruning untestable hypotheses was recently proposed as a strategy for this task of significant itemset mining. It was shown to lead to greater s…

2014-07-01abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a notion of algorithmic stability of learning algorithms---that we term \emph{argument stability}---that captures stability of the hypothesis output by the learning algorithm in the normed space of functions from which hypotheses are selected. The main result of the paper bounds the generalization error of…

2017-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Bounding the generalization error of learning algorithms has a long history, which yet falls short in explaining various generalization successes including those of deep learning. Two important difficulties are (i) exploiting the dependencies between the hypotheses, (ii) exploiting the dependence between the algorithm'…

2018-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

New method quantifies reliability of neural network image segmentation.

problem Assessing statistical reliability of neural network-based image segmentation results.
method Selective inference framework to compute exact p-values for DNN-driven hypotheses.
result Proposed method successfully controls false positive rate and provides good results for medical image data.

The paper develops methods to price and hedge options in path-dependent stock models.

problem Pricing and hedging options under complex stock models.
method Develops a path-dependent PDE for option pricing and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
result Provides formulas for option Greeks and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.