New control methods improve dynamic measure transport paths.
problem Improving paths for dynamic measure transport.
method Connecting mean-field games to optimization problems for learning paths, advocating for smoothness of velocities.
result Our method recovers more efficient and smooth transport models compared to untilted paths.
Develops path integral for spiked tensor model dynamics.
problem Dynamics of spiked tensor model with random initial conditions.
method Path integral approach applied to partial differential equations.
result Large-N saddle point equations dominated by melonic diagrams. Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
Method learns dynamics from noisy partial observations.
problem Reconstructing stochastic dynamical systems from indirect noisy data.
method Amortized path generation method for nonlinear stochastic filtering.
result Learned conditional path generator quantifies uncertainty.
TrajectoryNet models dynamic cellular trajectories using optimal transport.
problem Modeling continuous and non-linear paths in dynamic processes.
method Continuous normalizing flows linked to dynamic optimal transport.
result TrajectoryNet improves interpolation of cellular distributions.
New algorithm speeds up path computation for optimal models.
problem Finding the exact path of optimal models from a finite set.
method Dynamic programming approach for linear time computation.
result Dynamic programming achieves linear time for breakpoints computation.
New algorithms sample from complex path measures using neural networks.
problem Sampling from posterior path measures under a general prior process.
method Combines controlled equilibrium dynamics and optimization in infinite-dimensional probability space.
result The algorithms can be integrated with neural networks for learning target trajectory ensembles.
Extends BBSM model to incorporate ESG ratings and path dynamics.
problem Price stock options considering historical market index dynamics and ESG ratings.
method Develops discrete, binary tree option pricing model under BBSM with ESG valuation.
result Model accurately fits stock price changes and European call option prices.
We introduce a model for the dynamics of stock prices based on a non quadratic path integral. The model is a generalization of Ilinski's path integral model, more precisely we choose a different action, which can be tuned to different time scales. The result is a model with a very small number of parameters that provid…
Unified approach to DP problems using Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference.
problem Solving classical optimal path problems in a probabilistic framework.
method Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference for latent optimal paths.
result Unified approach transforms DP problems into directed acyclic graphs with Gibbs distribution.
A model-free method analyzes trading strategies using excursion paths.
problem Analyzing risk and return for dynamic trading strategies without probabilistic assumptions.
method Pathwise analysis of trading signals using δ-excursions.
result Continuous paths can be uniquely decomposed into δ-excursions.
Study of most probable paths for anisotropic Brownian motions on manifolds.
problem Characterizing paths of Brownian motions with anisotropic diffusion on manifolds.
method Using stochastic development and fiber bundle of linear frames, the study provides a comprehensive characterization of most probable paths.
result Explicit equations and integration methods for most probable paths on different geometries, including constant curvature surfaces.
Path signatures reveal community structure in coupled oscillators' dynamics.
problem Detecting communities in multivariate dynamical processes from time series data.
method Path signatures, a mathematical framework encoding geometric and temporal properties of continuous paths.
result Achieved exact recovery of structural communities from observed time series in multiple KSBM instances.
Improved dynamic regret analysis for strongly convex and smooth functions.
problem Analyzing dynamic regret for online learning algorithms.
method Improved analysis of the Online Multiple Gradient Descent (OMGD) algorithm.
result Achieved a best-of-three-worlds guarantee for dynamic regret.
LOV model calibrates European and American options with path-dependent volatility.
problem Calibrating European and American options with path-dependent volatility.
method Designing a local volatility model that incorporates path-dependent shocks through an occupation sensitivity function.
result LOV model successfully calibrates options chains with automatic European vanilla option calibration and path-dependent flexibility.
New methods use machine learning to simulate rare transitions in molecular systems.
problem Simulating rare transitions between metastable states in molecular dynamics.
method Generative models and reinforcement learning for importance sampling.
result Efficiently generated transition paths linking metastable states.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
AdaPID optimizes diffusion-based samplers by dynamically adjusting schedules.
problem Optimizing the intermediate-time dynamics in diffusion-based samplers.
method Develops a time-varying stiffness schedule using Piece-Wise-Constant (PWC) parametrizations and a hierarchical refinement approach.
result QoS-driven PWC schedules consistently improve sampling fidelity and accuracy.
Deep learning models price convertible bonds with complex reset and call features.
problem Pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent reset and call provisions.
method Formulated as a PPDE, deep learning approximates conditional expectations.
result Deep learning produces stable and accurate prices across various model specifications.
The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically eval…
We present a representation learning algorithm that learns a low-dimensional latent dynamical system from high-dimensional \textit{sequential} raw data, e.g., video. The framework builds upon recent advances in amortized inference methods that use both an inference network and a refinement procedure to output samples f…
New method infers population dynamics from snapshots using path space optimization.
problem Recover dynamics of a population from its temporal marginals.
method Grid-free algorithm using Schrödinger bridges coupled via noisy gradient descent in mean-field limit.
result Global convergence to min-entropy estimator with end-to-end theoretical guarantees.
The paper calculates sensitivities for financial derivatives using path weighting methods.
problem Computing sensitivities for path-dependent financial derivatives with high variance and degeneracy issues.
method Proposes explicit path weighting formula, variance reduction adjustment, and covariance inflation technique.
result Effective methods to address high variance and degeneracy in sensitivities computation.
This work explores functional expansions to handle path dependence in various fields.
problem Path dependence and infinite-dimensional problems in non-Markovian systems.
method Generalizes Wiener series and functional Taylor expansion to handle static and dynamic functionals.
result Elegant separation of functionals from future trajectories in dynamic cases.
A Bayesian framework models dynamic probability predictions over time.
problem Dynamic probability predictions over time in various settings.
method Gaussian latent information martingale (GLIM) framework.
result GLIM outperforms baseline methods in predicting future uncertainties.
A new method to rescale ReLU neural networks based on path-lifting.
problem Lack of principled ways to leverage rescaling symmetries in ReLU neural networks.
method Introduces a geometrically motivated criterion to rescale neural network parameters, aligning a kernel in the path-lifting space with a chosen reference.
result Proposed method can speed up training and aligns a kernel in the path-lifting space with a chosen reference.
In this paper, we recover sparse signals from their noisy linear measurements by solving nonlinear differential inclusions, which is based on the notion of inverse scale space (ISS) developed in applied mathematics. Our goal here is to bring this idea to address a challenging problem in statistics, \emph{i.e.} finding …
Optimal transport with path constraints for distributions of different masses.
problem Comparing distributions with different total masses under path constraints.
method Introduces a model for unbalanced optimal transport with path constraints, proving existence of solutions.
result Existence of solutions to path constrained unbalanced optimal transport for various constraints.
New algorithms minimize dynamic regret in non-stationary online learning.
problem Universal dynamic regret minimization under exp-concave and smooth losses.
method Strongly Adaptive algorithms with a path variational based on second order differences of the comparator sequence.
result Achieve a dynamic regret of ildeO(d2n1/5Cn2/5∨d2), optimal modulo dependencies. The study identifies volatility models from path geometry using signature-based methods.
problem Identifying different stochastic volatility models from observed data.
method Mapping volatility trajectories into a feature space via truncated path signatures and applying a gradient boosting classifier.
result The method achieves high classification accuracy across various volatility dynamics and parameter settings.
Unified approach to path planning using probabilistic inference on factor graphs.
problem Path planning problems using probabilistic inference.
method Unified framework using probabilistic factor graphs and message composition rules.
result Unified approach includes various algorithms like Sum-product, Max-product, Dynamic programming, and mixed criteria.
Introduces a neural network-based method for efficient state and parameter estimation in complex systems.
problem Efficiently estimating state paths and parameters from noisy measurements in high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian Information Field Theory with neural network parameterization and optimization algorithms.
result Proposes a method to simplify and enrich state path parameterizations using neural networks, improving inference accuracy.
We study adaptive regret bounds in terms of the variation of the losses (the so-called path-length bounds) for both multi-armed bandit and more generally linear bandit. We first show that the seemingly suboptimal path-length bound of (Wei and Luo, 2018) is in fact not improvable for adaptive adversary. Despite this neg…
The paper defines a path metric on a stable component of polynomial families.
problem Understanding the geometry of polynomial families with parabolic relations.
method Constructing a positive semi-definite pressure form on a bounded stable component of the moduli space.
result The pressure form defines a path metric on the stable component.
Extends unbiased simulation method to Asian options.
problem Simulating path-dependent dynamics for Asian options.
method Extension of unbiased simulation method for SDEs to path-dependent dynamics.
result Extension applies to numerical resolution of path-dependent PDEs.
Understanding and measuring model risk is important to financial practitioners. However, there lacks a non-parametric approach to model risk quantification in a dynamic setting and with path-dependent losses. We propose a complete theory generalizing the relative-entropic approach by Glasserman and Xu to the dynamic ca…
New method learns dynamics from sparse data using geometric constraints.
problem Learning dynamics from sparse, undersampled data.
method Reformulates inference as a stochastic control problem, using geometry-driven path augmentation.
result Accurately recovers stochastic dynamics from extremely undersampled data.
Update rules for learning in dynamic time warping spaces are based on optimal warping paths between parameter and input time series. In general, optimal warping paths are not unique resulting in adverse effects in theory and practice. Under the assumption of squared error local costs, we show that no two warping paths …
In this paper we use a time-evolving graph which consists of a sequence of graph snapshots over time to model many real-world networks. We study the path classification problem in a time-evolving graph, which has many applications in real-world scenarios, for example, predicting path failure in a telecommunication netw…
Develops a machine learning framework for computing most probable paths in stochastic systems.
problem Computing the most probable paths in stochastic dynamical systems.
method Reformulates the boundary value problem of Hamiltonian systems and uses a neural network to solve the Euler-Lagrange equation for the Onsager-Machlup action functional.
result Demonstrates the efficacy and accuracy of the machine learning approach in computing most probable paths for stochastic systems with various types of noise.
Dupire's functional Itô calculus provides an alternative approach to the classical Malliavin calculus for the computation of sensitivities, also called Greeks, of path-dependent derivatives prices. In this paper, we introduce a measure of path-dependence of functionals within the functional Itô calculus framework. Name…
Novel framework synthesizes stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
problem Synthesizing forward-looking, time-evolving stochastic trajectories with anticipated structural breaks.
method Anticipatory Neural Jump-Diffusion (ANJD) flow, AVNSG for dynamic spectral whitening.
result The framework effectively captures non-commutative moments and high-order stochastic texture.
Sparse model selection is ubiquitous from linear regression to graphical models where regularization paths, as a family of estimators upon the regularization parameter varying, are computed when the regularization parameter is unknown or decided data-adaptively. Traditional computational methods rely on solving a set o…
Improved path integral method for financial derivatives pricing.
problem Analytical intractability of financial derivative pricing models.
method Generalized semi-classical path integral approach to time-dependent Hamiltonians.
result Accuracy and computational efficiency of the path integral approach for derivatives pricing.
New method uses path signatures for causal discovery in time series data.
problem Challenges in understanding causal structure from observational time series data.
method Path signatures and signed areas for model-free causal discovery.
result Confidence sequence regions help identify lag/lead causal relationships.
Study on test risk dynamics in learning theory with stochastic gradient flow.
problem Understanding test risk in stochastic gradient flow dynamics.
method Path integral formulation for small learning rates, explicit computation for weak features.
result Explicit corrections due to stochastic term in dynamics, good agreement with simulations.
Neural networks' optimization dynamics are confined to a single basin despite connected basins in the loss landscape.
problem Neural networks' optimization dynamics are confined to a single basin despite connected basins in the loss landscape.
method Identifying entropic barriers arising from the interplay between curvature variations along low-loss paths and noise in optimization dynamics.
result Curvature-induced entropic forces bias noisy dynamics back toward the endpoints, explaining the confinement and connectivity of solutions.
Path signatures improve hedging of exotic derivatives in non-Markovian models.
problem Hedging exotic derivatives under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models.
method Investigates path signatures in deep and shallow learning contexts, comparing neural networks and regression approaches.
result Path signatures outperform LSTM in most cases and yield more accurate results in hedging.