Derives FPDE for equity-linked insurance pricing.
problem Calculating prices for insurance policies with complex payment histories.
method Variational techniques in functional Itô calculus.
result Derives a functional partial differential equation.
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48 results for “path dependent policies”
Signature-Based Optimal Execution for Statistical Arbitrage with Path-Dependent Trading Signalsq-fin.TR
Develops a new trading strategy for statistical arbitrage with path-dependent signals.
problem Optimal execution in statistical arbitrage strategies with dynamic predictive signals.
method Signature-based framework modeling alpha and trading speed as linear functionals of truncated signature of market path.
result Fitted policy achieves higher return on turnover compared to a z-score benchmark.
We develop a normative framework for hierarchical model-based policy optimization based on applying second-order methods in the space of all possible state-action paths. The resulting natural path gradient performs policy updates in a manner which is sensitive to the long-range correlational structure of the induced st…
LHIEM model predicts health, income, and employment over years.
problem Lack of path dependency in health policy simulations.
method Discrete-time microsimulation with Markov chain modules.
result Validates health care financing proposal through detailed modeling.
New algorithm achieves data-dependent regret bounds in MDPs with unknown transitions.
problem Achieving best-of-both-worlds guarantees with data-dependent regret bounds in MDPs with unknown transitions.
method Optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader algorithm with new optimistic Q-function estimators and transition bonus.
result First-order, second-order, and path-length bounds with polylog(T) regret in the stochastic regime.
Paper tackles offline SSP with value iteration for policy evaluation and learning.
problem Goal-oriented RL with offline data and cost minimization.
method Simple value iteration algorithms for OPE and offline policy learning.
result Strong instance-dependent bounds implying near-minimax optimal worst-case bounds.
New algorithms reduce regret in online MDPs by adapting to data and variance.
problem Adapting to both adversarial and stochastic environments in online MDPs.
method Develops algorithms based on global optimization and policy optimization, using optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader with log-barrier regularization.
result Achieves refined data-dependent and variance-dependent regret bounds.
We present the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to determine the time-dependent lead-lag relationship between two stochastic time series. This novel version of the previously introduced TOP method alleviates some inconsistencies by imposing that the lead-lag relationship should be invariant with respect to …
ScoreMatchingRiesz improves debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
problem Improving debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
method Score matching and Riesz representer estimation.
result Estimates policy path for continuous treatments, improving interpretability.
In this paper, we prove some convergence results of a special case of optimistic policy iteration algorithm for stochastic shortest path problem. We consider both Monte Carlo and methods for the policy evaluation step under the condition that the termination state will eventually be reached almost surely.
We propose an algorithm for deterministic continuous Markov Decision Processes with sparse rewards that computes the optimal policy exactly with no dependency on the size of the state space. The algorithm has time complexity of and memory complexity of , where is the…
Extend classical theory of affine processes to path-dependent setting
problem Path-dependent affine processes
method Introduce path-dependent coefficients and provide analytic formulas for their Fourier--Laplace transform
result Define path-dependent affine processes through their exponential-affine Fourier--Laplace transform and establish a characterization theorem
The paper develops methods to price and hedge options in path-dependent stock models.
problem Pricing and hedging options under complex stock models.
method Develops a path-dependent PDE for option pricing and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
result Provides formulas for option Greeks and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
We consider model-free reinforcement learning for infinite-horizon discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a continuous state space and unknown transition kernel, when only a single sample path under an arbitrary policy of the system is available. We consider the Nearest Neighbor Q-Learning (NNQL) algorithm to…
This paper proposes a new approach to RL by focusing on the value-improvement path.
problem Value prediction problems in RL are sequence-dependent and require holistic approach.
method Characterize and approximate the value-improvement path holistically.
result A representation that spans the value-improvement path provides accurate value approximations for future policy improvements.
Study examines how economic policy uncertainty impacts stock markets.
problem Dynamic relationship between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets.
method Used symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method.
result Different interaction patterns observed in emerging and developed markets.
DSPI connects natural policy gradient to policy iteration, proving global convergence.
problem Optimizing policies in reinforcement learning.
method DSPI framework, combining smoothed policy iteration and natural policy gradient.
result DSPI achieves geometric convergence and optimal complexity for policy optimization.
A new framework for causal inference in networked settings.
problem Causal inference under network interference.
method Characterize agent network configuration and use it to estimate treatment effects.
result Finite-sample bounds and asymptotically valid tests for policy irrelevance.
This paper improves tail dependence analysis by introducing a path-based approach.
problem The classical tail dependence coefficient fails to capture non-exchangeable features of tail dependence.
method The paper introduces a path-based maximal tail dependence approach to capture the most pronounced feature of dependence over all possible paths.
result The paper proves the existence and provides an explicit characterization of the path-based maximal TDC, improving analytical and computational tractability.
Develops neural network framework for risk-reward optimization problems.
problem Multi-period risk-reward optimization with constrained policies.
method Neural network framework with two coupled feedforward networks, parametrizing two-step policies.
result Empirical optimum converges to true optimal value as network capacity and training size increase.
New algorithm reduces regret in stochastic shortest path problems.
problem Planning and control in environments with unknown dynamics and variable episode lengths.
method Developed an algorithm with a new regret bound of .
result Guaranteed a significant reduction in regret compared to previous methods.
Develops a numerical scheme for solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs.
problem Solving path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs numerically.
method Picard iteration method for FBSDEs, concentration inequality for estimator, supervised learning with neural networks for PDEs.
result Proves convergence and rate of convergence for the Picard iteration method.
The present work extends the randomized shortest-paths framework (RSP), interpolating between shortest-path and random-walk routing in a network, in three directions. First, it shows how to deal with equality constraints on a subset of transition probabilities and develops a generic algorithm for solving this constrain…
Transformer model improves asset allocation by unifying forecasting and optimization.
problem Separation of forecasting and optimization leads to suboptimal portfolios.
method Signature Informed Transformer using path signatures and specialized attention.
result Direct minimization of Conditional Value at Risk improves performance.
Dupire's functional Itô calculus provides an alternative approach to the classical Malliavin calculus for the computation of sensitivities, also called Greeks, of path-dependent derivatives prices. In this paper, we introduce a measure of path-dependence of functionals within the functional Itô calculus framework. Name…
We develop asymptotically optimal policies for the multi armed bandit (MAB), problem, under a cost constraint. This model is applicable in situations where each sample (or activation) from a population (bandit) incurs a known bandit dependent cost. Successive samples from each population are iid random variables with u…
The study examines insurance demand under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
problem Optimal insurance and investment strategies under rough volatility and path-dependent shocks.
method Rough volatility model and Hawkes process with power kernel, Functional Ito formula extension.
result Individuals demand more catastrophe insurance when path-dependent effects are considered.
Algorithm reduces regret in SSP problems with LFA.
problem Finding shortest paths in stochastic environments with linear approximations.
method Uses linear function approximation and stationary policies to minimize regret.
result Achieves sublinear regret under minimal assumptions.
Deep signature algorithm for pricing path-dependent options.
problem Pricing path-dependent options with complex payoff functions.
method Extended backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, incorporating signature layer for path-dependent FBSDEs.
result Convergence analysis of the algorithm with explicit dependence on truncation order and neural network approximation errors.
Path regularization improves GFlowNets exploration and generalization.
problem Improving GFlowNets exploration and generalization.
method Path regularization based on optimal transport theory.
result Path regularization enhances GFlowNets to generate more diverse and novel candidates.
Study shows sample complexity for learning optimal policies in SSP with generative model.
problem Learning optimal policies in Stochastic Shortest Path problems.
method Derive and prove lower and upper bounds on sample complexity.
result Lower bound of samples for general case, and up to logarithmic factors for bounded hitting time condition.
Study shows hard sample complexity for learning optimal policies in stochastic shortest path problems.
problem Learning optimal policies in stochastic shortest path problems.
method Analyzes sample complexity with and without generative models, derives lower and upper bounds.
result Proves sample complexity bounds and impossibility of horizon-free regret in SSPs.
Recent years have witnessed a tremendous improvement of deep reinforcement learning. However, a challenging problem is that an agent may suffer from inefficient exploration, particularly for on-policy methods. Previous exploration methods either rely on complex structure to estimate the novelty of states, or incur sens…
Path-dependent PDEs model VIX and Realised Variance options.
problem Modeling volatility derivatives with path-dependence.
method Continuous stochastic volatility model with Gaussian Volterra process, proving well-posedness of PDEs.
result Formulae for greeks and implied volatility provided, finite-dimensional pricing PDEs obtained in Markovian models.
In this paper, we introduce and develop the theory of semimartingale optimal transport in a path dependent setting. Instead of the classical constraints on marginal distributions, we consider a general framework of path dependent constraints. Duality results are established, representing the solution in terms of path d…
Anticipatory Reinforcement Learning: From Generative Path-Laws to Distributional Value Functionscs.LG
ARL bridges non-Markovian decision processes with reinforcement learning, improving foresight and stability.
problem Inaccurate foresight in non-Markovian environments due to state-based methods' limitations.
method Lifted state space into a signature-augmented manifold, using a self-consistent field approach to anticipate future path-law.
result ARL achieves deterministic evaluation of expected returns with reduced computational complexity and variance.
In this paper, we extend the first-order asymptotics analysis of Fouque et al. to general path-dependent financial derivatives using Dupire's functional Ito calculus. The main conclusion is that the market group parameters calibrated to vanilla options can be used to price to the same order exotic, path-dependent deriv…
Paper proposes method for generating paths of stochastic volatility CGMY process for option pricing.
problem Generating accurate sample paths for stochastic volatility models for option pricing.
method Monte-Carlo method for European and American options, least square regression for calibration.
result Calibrated model parameters to S\&P 100 index options market using path-dependent options.
Deep neural networks solve stochastic control problems with delay.
problem Challenges in stochastic control problems with delay due to path-dependence and high dimensions.
method Employing recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to parameterize policies and optimize objectives.
result RNNs, especially LSTMs, efficiently capture path-dependence and outperform feedforward networks in training and performance.
The paper provides an efficient method to price path-dependent derivatives using multiscale stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing path-dependent derivatives under multiscale stochastic volatility models.
method Derives a Malliavin representation for the first-order approximation of the price of path-dependent derivatives.
result An efficient Monte Carlo approximation for pricing path-dependent derivatives is derived.
The recently developed bag-of-paths (BoP) framework consists in setting a Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution on all feasible paths of a graph. This probability distribution favors short paths over long ones, with a free parameter (the temperature ) controlling the entropic level of the distribution. This formalism enables…
Collective classification has been intensively studied due to its impact in many important applications, such as web mining, bioinformatics and citation analysis. Collective classification approaches exploit the dependencies of a group of linked objects whose class labels are correlated and need to be predicted simulta…
Sparse RSP routing improves graph exploration and classification.
problem Optimal randomized routing and distance measures on weighted graphs.
method Tsallis divergence regularization for sparse RSP.
result Sparse random walk converges to least-cost graph as temperature decreases.
Extends Itô's formula for path-dependent functions in finance.
problem Modeling and hedging of path-dependent financial options.
method Functional extension of Itô's formula for C^{0,1}-functions of continuous weak Dirichlet processes.
result Validates the hedging or superhedging problems for path-dependent options.
Path integral method calculates PDBS option prices with time-dependent parameters.
problem Pricing proportional double-barrier step options with time-dependent interest rates and volatilities.
method Path integral method applied to a quantum mechanical analogy of barrier options.
result Derivation of pricing kernel for PDBS options with time-dependent parameters.
The paper develops a method to learn cost-optimal sequential testing policies from retrospective data.
problem Learning cost-optimal sequential decision policies from retrospective data with missing test results.
method Doubly robust Q-learning framework with path-specific inverse probability weights.
result The method reduces testing cost without compromising predictive accuracy.
PDGM uses neural nets to solve complex financial equations.
problem Solving path-dependent partial differential equations (PPDEs)
method Generalized Deep Galerkin Method (PDGM) combining feed-forward and LSTM architectures
result PDGM successfully models solutions to various PPDEs, including financial derivatives.
New control theory for self-path-dependent problems solves unique constraints.
problem Optimal control with self-path-dependent constraints in stochastic systems.
method Introduces new HJB equations for variational inequalities with historical maximum controls.
result Value functions are viscosity solutions to HJB equations under Lipschitz conditions.