Probabilistic grammars improve equation discovery from data.
problem Discovering scientific laws from data using equations.
method Proposed probabilistic context-free grammars to encode soft constraints and a Monte-Carlo algorithm.
result Probabilistic grammars lead to more efficient equation discovery.
Bayesian method reconstructs hidden higher-order interactions from network data.
problem Lack of explicit higher-order interactions in pairwise network data.
method Bayesian approach based on parsimony, infers higher-order structures when statistically supported.
result Demonstrated applicability to various datasets, synthetic and empirical.
The parsimonious Gaussian mixture models, which exploit an eigenvalue decomposition of the group covariance matrices of the Gaussian mixture, have shown their success in particular in cluster analysis. Their estimation is in general performed by maximum likelihood estimation and has also been considered from a parametr…
PASTIS selects minimal models from stochastic dynamics data.
problem Overfitting in model selection for stochastic dynamics.
method Combining likelihood-estimation statistics with extreme value theory.
result PASTIS reliably identifies minimal models, even with low sampling rates or error.
Complexity helps identify sparse risk factors in asset pricing.
problem Tension between feature richness and economic parsimony in high-dimensional asset pricing.
method Expanding feature space and using basis pursuit to discover sparse risk factors.
result Nonlinear feature expansions combined with basis pursuit yield superior out-of-sample performance.
Parsimonious neural networks discover interpretable physical laws from data.
problem Discovering interpretable physical laws from data using machine learning.
method Combining neural networks with evolutionary optimization to balance accuracy and parsimony.
result Developed models for classical mechanics and materials melting temperature prediction.
In this paper we develop a method for learning nonlinear systems with multiple outputs and inputs. We begin by modelling the errors of a nominal predictor of the system using a latent variable framework. Then using the maximum likelihood principle we derive a criterion for learning the model. The resulting optimization…
We propose a graph spectral representation of time series data that 1) is parsimoniously encoded to user-demanded resolution; 2) is unsupervised and performant in data-constrained scenarios; 3) captures event and event-transition structure within the time series; and 4) has near-linear computational complexity in both …
PASTIS method selects simple models from noisy data.
problem Selecting correct models from large candidate libraries.
method PASTIS (Parsimonious Stochastic Inference) using extreme value theory.
result PASTIS outperforms other methods in model identification and predictive capability.
Data science principles enhance AI interpretability for better user control.
problem Risks from opaque AI models without clear impacts.
method Synthesizes principles from interpretability literature, emphasizing audience goals.
result Illustrates basic techniques and criteria for evaluating interpretability.
We propose a parsimonious topic model for text corpora. In related models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), all words are modeled topic-specifically, even though many words occur with similar frequencies across different topics. Our modeling determines salient words for each topic, which have topic-specific pr…
This paper proposes a parsimoniously time varying parameter vector autoregressive model (with exogenous variables, VARX) and studies the properties of the Lasso and adaptive Lasso as estimators of this model. The parameters of the model are assumed to follow parsimonious random walks, where parsimony stems from the ass…
A parsimonious model reduces over-parameterization in skewed matrix variate mixtures.
problem Over-parameterization in skewed matrix variate mixtures.
method Parsimonious family of 256 models using bilinear factor analyzers constrained over clusters, with AECM algorithm for estimation.
result Extensive simulations and real-world datasets (MNIST, Olivetti faces) demonstrate the method's effectiveness.
A family of parsimonious shifted asymmetric Laplace mixture models is introduced. We extend the mixture of factor analyzers model to the shifted asymmetric Laplace distribution. Imposing constraints on the constitute parts of the resulting decomposed component scale matrices leads to a family of parsimonious models. An…
Koopman Regularization learns governing equations from sparse data.
problem Learning governing equations from sparse and corrupted data.
method Constrained optimization using Koopman Eigenfunctions.
result Restores dynamics precisely with minimal assumptions.
Bayesian inference simplified for machine learning models.
problem Difficulty in specifying general prior belief in machine learning architectures.
method Parsimonious inference using information theory and Kolmogorov complexity.
result Framework quantifies model complexity and prediction information, reducing memorization.
A family of parsimonious Gaussian cluster-weighted models is presented. This family concerns a multivariate extension to cluster-weighted modelling that can account for correlations between multivariate responses. Parsimony is attained by constraining parts of an eigen-decomposition imposed on the component covariance …
New risk metric for AI systems reduces safety risks with minimal data.
problem Risk assessment in multi-agent AI systems.
method Free Energy Principle applied to risk metrics, introducing Cumulative Risk Exposure.
result Gatekeepers improve system safety in autonomous vehicle fleets.
MDL principle aids in learning neural network-based causal structures.
problem Learning causal relationships from observations with neural networks.
method Prequential minimum description length (MDL) principle.
result Competitive results on synthetic and real-world data, often recovering correct structure.
We propose an elementary model to price European physical delivery swaptions in multicurve setting with a simple exact closed formula. The proposed model is very parsimonious: it is a three-parameter multicurve extension of the two-parameter Hull-White (1990) model. The model allows also to obtain simple formulas for a…
This paper extends exponential smoothing to distributional time series using Wasserstein distance.
problem Forecasting distributional time series with exponential smoothing.
method Generalized exponential smoothing in Wasserstein space, with consistent parameter estimation.
result Wasserstein exponential smoothing outperforms traditional methods in high-frequency financial and electricity demand data.
A new method solves complex hydroelectricity planning problems.
problem Solving multistage stochastic linear programming for hydrothermal dispatch planning.
method Regularized Linear Decision Rules (AdaLASSO) to reduce overfitting and improve out-of-sample performance.
result Significant reductions in non-zero coefficients and improved spot-price profiles.
Finite mixtures of regression models offer a flexible framework for investigating heterogeneity in data with functional dependencies. These models can be conveniently used for unsupervised learning on data with clear regression relationships. We extend such models by imposing an eigen-decomposition on the multivariate …
New GMM models fit high-dimensional data with fewer parameters.
problem Overparameterization and lack of flexibility in GMMs for high-dimensional data.
method Piecewise-constant covariance eigenvalue profiles, EM and penalized EM algorithms.
result Superior likelihood-parsimony tradeoffs in density fitting, clustering, and denoising.
Inferring a decision tree from a given dataset is one of the classic problems in machine learning. This problem consists of buildings, from a labelled dataset, a tree such that each node corresponds to a class and a path between the tree root and a leaf corresponds to a conjunction of features to be satisfied in this c…
Develops a Bayesian framework for symbolic regression of scientific expressions.
problem Lack of principled uncertainty quantification and interpretability in existing symbolic regression methods.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with tree-structured symbolic expressions and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference.
result Robust performance on various datasets, including single-atom catalysis.
We consider the problem of non-parametric regression with a potentially large number of covariates. We propose a convex, penalized estimation framework that is particularly well-suited for high-dimensional sparse additive models. The proposed approach combines appealing features of finite basis representation and smoot…
Bayesian context trees capture complex dependencies in categorical sequences.
problem Complex, long-range dependencies in categorical sequences are not well captured by simple models.
method Parsimonious Bayesian context trees with model-based agglomerative clustering for efficient inference.
result The proposed framework outperforms existing models on real-world data.
Investigates deep hedging under rough volatility models.
problem Performance of deep hedging framework under non-Markovian conditions.
method Analysis of rough volatility models, use of parsimonious network architectures.
result Parsimonious network architectures can capture non-Markovian time-series.
Proposes a non-convex optimization method for a parsimonious weighted naive Bayes classifier.
problem Improving naïve Bayes classifier performance with a large number of input variables.
method Sparse regularization of model log-likelihood for direct estimation of variable weights.
result Optimization-based weighted naïve Bayes classifiers achieve equivalent performance to averaging-based classifiers.
New neural networks model complex phenomena with fewer parameters.
problem Challenges in studying higher-order interactions in neural networks.
method Introducing curved neural networks using the maximum entropy principle.
result Curved neural networks accelerate memory retrieval and exhibit explosive phase transitions.
Introduces LLC, a new complexity measure for DNNs based on SLT.
problem Lack of effective complexity measures for DNNs.
method Uses Singular Learning Theory to define LLC and proposes scalable estimator.
result Empirical evidence shows LLC provides valuable insights into DNN complexity.
Develops framework for valuing and assessing risk of renewable PPAs.
problem Valuation and risk assessment of non-standard renewable PPAs.
method Formalizes payoff structures, derives fair contract prices, proposes market risk-assessment methodology.
result Fair prices and risk profiles vary across technologies and contractual structures.
A new method reduces high-dimensional data's impact on CWMs using TSNE.
problem High-dimensional data hampers CWMs' accuracy and speed.
method TSNE for dimensionality reduction, parsimonious technique, expectation maximization.
result TSNE enhances CWMs' performance in high-dimensional space.
Method selects most useful network model for various tasks.
problem Impact of translating raw data to network models is unexamined.
method Proposes a network model selection methodology focusing on utility and parsimony.
result Demonstrates the importance of network definition for system behavior.
We investigate the detectability of modules in large networks when the number of modules is not known in advance. We employ the minimum description length (MDL) principle which seeks to minimize the total amount of information required to describe the network, and avoid overfitting. According to this criterion, we obta…
Let G be a nonabelian, simple group with a nontrivial conjugacy class C⊆G. Let K be a diagram of an oriented knot in S3, thought of as computational input. We show that for each such G and C, the problem of counting homomorphisms π1(S3∖K)→G that send meridians of K to C is al…
Parsimonious Dynamic Mode Decomposition selects sparse modes robustly.
problem Manual tuning of sparsity parameters in traditional DMD.
method Time-delay embedding and Orthogonal Matching Pursuit.
result Autonomously determines optimally sparse subset of modes.
A new tensor regression model preserves multidimensional data structure.
problem Complex multidimensional data loses intrinsic connections and parameter explosion.
method Developed a parsimonious tensor regression model using Tucker structure and shrinkage penalization.
result The model outperforms benchmark models in forecasting.
Proposes a new approach to approximate maximum likelihood for complex models.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex parametric models.
method Simulation-based constrained approximation to the structural model.
result Estimators nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood, feasible in many cases.
Optimal AFs minimize RFR test error and sensitivity.
problem Finding optimal AFs for RFR to minimize test error and sensitivity.
method Closed-form solution for AFs minimizing test error and sensitivity under different functional parsimony.
result Optimal AFs can be linear, saturated linear, or Hermite polynomial expressions.
Novel estimation methods improve MAR model accuracy for high-dimensional time series.
problem Limited estimation techniques for Matrix Autoregressive (MAR) models.
method Adapted Yule-Walker equations and Burg's method.
result Proposed methods achieve comparable model fit to VAR models.
Path regularization reveals convex optimization in deep ReLU networks.
problem Understanding the optimization landscape of deep neural networks.
method Introducing path regularization to make the training problem convex and sparsity-inducing.
result Path regularized parallel ReLU networks are a parsimonious convex model in high dimensions.
Combining Bayesian nonparametrics and a forward model selection strategy, we construct parsimonious Bayesian deep networks (PBDNs) that infer capacity-regularized network architectures from the data and require neither cross-validation nor fine-tuning when training the model. One of the two essential components of a PB…
Recent years have demonstrated that using random feature maps can significantly decrease the training and testing times of kernel-based algorithms without significantly lowering their accuracy. Regrettably, because random features are target-agnostic, typically thousands of such features are necessary to achieve accept…
Researchers develop multi-utility representations for incomplete preferences linked to risk measures.
problem Handling incomplete preferences induced by set-valued risk measures.
method Established dual representations of set-valued risk measures to create parsimonious and well-behaved multi-utility representations.
result Unified dual representations of set-valued risk measures, linking them to scalar risk measures.
For a long time interest-rate models were built on a single yield curve used both for discounting and forwarding. However, the crisis that has affected financial markets in the last years led market players to revise this assumption and accommodate basis-swap spreads, whose remarkable widening can no longer be neglecte…
AdaRL adapts quickly to new environments with minimal data.
problem Quickly adapting to new environments in reinforcement learning.
method AdaRL uses a parsimonious graphical representation to encode changes across domains.
result AdaRL can efficiently adapt policies to target domains with few samples.